Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks (2025)-HC=1.pdf

Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster RisksHuman Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the report do not imply expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning its frontiers or boundaries. IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society. As an intergovernmental organization, IOM acts with its partners in the international community to: assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration; advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants. _____________________________ Publisher: International Organization for Migration 17 route des Morillons P.O. Box 17 1211 Geneva 19

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Email: hq@iom.int Website: www.iom.int Cover photo: Jordan faces a range of climate change challenges that are affecting human mobility decisions, including increasing water scarcity and more frequent severe weather events. © IOM 2023/Fedza LUKOVAC Required citation: International Organization for Migration (IOM), 2025. Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks. IOM, Geneva. _____________________________

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Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks Jordan Country Officeii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This scoping study was prepared by Al-Qaryouti Lubna and Erin K. McFee, PhD, consultants for IOM, with Rimjhim Agrawal as a contributing researcher, within the framework of the IOM project, “Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks in Jordan”. It aimed to explore how climate-related factors influence migration trends within Jordan and identify any direct relationship between climate change and shifts in migration that could amplify existing vulnerabilities in the country. The study was made possible, to a large extent, by the valuable participation and contributions of all stakeholders and community members who were engaged in the project. The authors are grateful for the insights and support provided by the IOM Jordan Country Office throughout the study, specifically in terms of data collection and invaluable feedback. We wish to thank the Ministry of Environment, particularly Mr Belal Shqarin (Engr), Director of Climate Change, and his team for their continuous support and strategic guidance. Appreciation is also extended to the Department of Statistics of Jordan and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees for providing raw data that informed the analysis in this report. The study and this report owe much thanks to the generous funding support of IOM Member States through the IOM Development Fund.iii Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks

CONTENTS

Jordan, Department of Statistics (DOS) (2008). Jordan Population and Family Health Survey

2007. Report. DOS, Amman.

DOS (2015). Table 3.1: Distribution of population by population category, sex, nationality, administrative divisions and urban/rural. In: Statistical Tables of the Population and Housing Census 2015. Data set. DOS (2018). Agricultural Census 2017. Report. DOS, Amman. DOS (2022a). Livestock. Data set. DOS (2022b). Table 3: Summary of compensation for frost and drought (2022). Data set. DOS (2023a). Demographic statistics – population. Data set. DOS (2023b). Distribution of area according to land use in Jordan, 2004–2023. Data set. DOS (2023c). Number of newborn and mortality of livestock, 1995–2002. Data set. DOS (2023d). Table 6: Quantity and usage of ground water for agriculture use by water basin (1995–2023). Data set. DOS (2023e). Table 8: Quantity and usage of ground water for distant regions & livestock use by water basin (1995–2023). Data set. DOS (2023f). Table 1: Number of pulmonary TB cases by governorate (1990–2023). Data set. DOS (2023g). Table 3: Number of typhoid and para typhoid cases by governorate (1989–2023). Data set. Jordan, Government of (2023). National Disaster Risk Reduction Strategy 2023–2030. Government of Jordan, Amman. Jordan, Government of (2024). Economic Modernisation Vision. Government of Jordan, Amman.69 Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks Jordan, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) (2024). Energy and its partners are studying the most suitable infrastructure options for green hydrogen in Jordan. News article. MEMR, 19 February.

Amman.69 Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks Jordan, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) (2024). Energy and its partners are studying the most suitable infrastructure options for green hydrogen in Jordan. News article. MEMR, 19 February. Jordan, Ministry of Environment (2022). The National Climate Change Adaptation Plan of Jordan – 2022. Ministry of Environment, Amman. Jordan, Ministry of Environment (2023). Fourth National Communication on Climate Change. Ministry of Environment, Amman. Mamo, D. The Indigenous World 2020. International Work Group for Indigenous Affairs, 2020. McAdam, J. (2009). From economic refugees to climate refugees? Review of International Refugee Law and Socio‐Economic Rights: Refuge from Deprivation by Michelle Foster. Melbourne Journal of International Law, 10(2):579–585. Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) (2021). ND-GAIN Country Index – Country Rankings section. Perosino, L. (2023). Comprehensive overview of the agricultural sector in Jordan. Technical Reports, No. 72. Agence Française de Développement, Paris. The Jordan Times (2024). Electric, hybrid vehicles constitute 18.5% of Jordan’s total vehicle fleet – environment minister. The Jordan Times, 4 January. United Nations (1951). General Assembly resolution 429(V) on the Convention relating to the Status of Refugees, adopted on 14 December (A/RES/429(V)). United Nations (1992). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted on 9 May (FCC/INFORMAL/84). United Nations (2010). General Assembly resolution 64/291 on the Follow-up to paragraph 143 on human security of the 2005 World Summit Outcome, adopted on 16 July

(A/RES/64/291).

United Nations (2012). General Assembly resolution 66/290 on the Follow-up to paragraph 143 on human security of the 2005 World Summit Outcome, adopted on 10 September

(A/RES/66/290).

United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (Office of the), 1998: introduction, para. 2). economic migrant Any person who is moving or has moved across an international border or within a State, solely or primarily motivated by economic opportunities (IOM, 2019:61). This can include but is distinct from labour migration, which is defined more narrowly as the movement of persons from their home State to another State, or within their own country of residence, for the purpose of employment (ibid.:123). environmental degradation The reduction of the capacity of the environment to meet social and ecological objectives and needs. […] Degradation of the environment can alter the frequency and intensity of natural hazards and increase the vulnerability of communities. The types of human-induced degradation are varied and include land misuse, soil erosion and loss, desertification, wildland fires, loss of biodiversity, deforestation, mangrove destruction, land, water and air pollution, climate change, sea-level rise, and ozone depletion. (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), 2009). environmental migrant Persons or groups of persons who, predominantly for reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their places of habitual residence, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, moving either within their country or abroad (adapted from IOM, 2019:64).xi Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks extreme weather event An event that is rare within its statistical reference distribution at a particular place. Definitions of “rare” vary, but an extreme weather event would normally be as rare as or rarer than the tenth or ninetieth percentile. By definition, the characteristics of what is called “extreme weather” may vary from place to place. An “extreme climate event” is an average of a number of weather events over a certain period of time – an average which is itself

potential. (Adapted from United Nations, 2010 and 2012.) internally displaced person Persons or groups of persons who have been forced or obliged to flee or leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situations of generalized violence, violations of human rights, or natural or human-made disasters, and who have not crossed an internationally recognized State border (United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (Office of the), 1998).xii GLOSSARY internal migration The movement of people within a State involving the establishment of a new temporary or permanent residence (IOM, 2019:108). livelihood At the individual and household levels, vulnerability and resilience depend largely on people’s livelihoods. Livelihoods comprise the capabilities, material and social assets, and activities required to sustain a means of living. (Chambers and Conway, 1991) Livelihood options depend on available human, social and financial capital and on the socioeconomic, natural and political context in which people live. They determine how people occupy and use their environment; what options they have in the face of hazards; what impacts they suffer from such hazards; and how effectively they recover. (Carloni, 2005) slow-onset event An event evolves gradually from incremental changes occurring over many years or from an increased frequency or intensity of recurring events. Such events include sea-level rise, increasing temperatures, ocean acidification, glacial retreat and related impacts, salinization, land and forest degradation, loss of biodiversity, and desertification. (Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2011)xiii Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This study explores the intricate relationship between climate change and human mobility in Jordan, focusing on how climatic stressors influence migration patterns and socioeconomic dynamics. Over the past few decades, Jordan has experienced significant environmental challenges, including rising temperatures, declining rainfall, more frequent heatwaves and

infrastructures and resources. Various community and government initiatives aim to build resilience against climate change impacts. Community-led projects, such as water harvesting in Ajloun and Mafraq, have improved irrigation techniques, and sustainable agricultural practices in Jerash exemplify local adaptive capacity. Urban areas benefit from organizational support and international funding for climate resilience projects. However, there is a need for more effective government programmes and targeted support to address the specific needs of vulnerable communities, especially in urban centres with water and agricultural challenges. Enhanced education, health and job creation efforts are necessary to support vulnerable populations and mitigate the effects of climate change and migration. Stronger legislation and integration of climate change adaptation strategies into policies and urban planning are needed. Both government and NGO efforts are vital in implementing sustainable programmes and improving community awareness and readiness levels. Sustainability and resilience are key components of community-based initiatives that address climate change challenges. These efforts include implementing modern technology in agriculture, water conservation techniques and eco-friendly practices to enhance resilience across sectors. However, challenges remain in integrating climate change adaptation into national strategies and policies. Opportunities lie in fostering green growth and modernizing environmental initiatives to improve resilience and sustainability.1 Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks

1. INTRODUCTION This scoping study aims to explore the Jordanian context to understand how climate variables may tacitly impact internal and international migration patterns, and whether there is any direct relationship between climate change and migration patterns that could perhaps exacerbate existing vulnerabilities.

This study will integrate the findings from a desk review and insights from focus group discussion (FGDs) and key informant interviews (KIIs) with stakeholders to provide a cohesive evidence base to inform and support the Government in better response-planning based on facts and figures.

1. 1.

BACKGROUND Climate change, environmental degradation and disaster risks are critical challenges with farreaching implications for human mobility worldwide. These issues are particularly pressing in Jordan due to the country’s geographic location, limited natural resources and socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Jordan, situated in the arid region of the Middle East, faces acute water

BACKGROUND Climate change, environmental degradation and disaster risks are critical challenges with farreaching implications for human mobility worldwide. These issues are particularly pressing in Jordan due to the country’s geographic location, limited natural resources and socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Jordan, situated in the arid region of the Middle East, faces acute water scarcity, frequent droughts and rising temperatures, which collectively exacerbate the living conditions of its population and heighten the risk of internal and international migration. Jordan’s sociopolitical landscape is further complicated by its role as a host to large numbers of refugees, primarily from the Syrian Arab Republic and Iraq, adding stress to already limited resources and infrastructure. These circumstances create a complex interplay of climate variables and migration patterns, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of the context to inform effective policy interventions. This scoping study aims to delve into this intricate context. It seeks to explore how climaterelated factors influence migration trends within Jordan and identify any direct relationships between climate change and shifts in migration that could amplify existing vulnerabilities. By focusing on the specific regions of Irbid, Mafraq, Ajloun and Jerash – areas identified as particularly vulnerable – the study gathered crucial data and insights from key stakeholders, including local policymakers, community leaders and members of vulnerable communities. This evidence-based approach provides a robust foundation for developing climate change adaptation measures that are both effective and sensitive to the needs of different genders and vulnerable groups. Additionally, awareness-raising sessions on climate adaptation will be conducted for vulnerable community members, fostering active civic engagement and empowering these populations to participate in adaptation efforts. Ultimately, this study seeks to support the Government of Jordan and its partners in crafting informed and responsive strategies to address the challenges posed by climate change, thereby improving the resilience and adaptive capacity of local authorities and vulnerable communities. Integrating stakeholder observations and evidence-based insights will be pivotal in developing data-driven response-planning and policies that mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and support safe and dignified human mobility.3 Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks

2. METHODOLOGY

communities. Integrating stakeholder observations and evidence-based insights will be pivotal in developing data-driven response-planning and policies that mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and support safe and dignified human mobility.3 Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks

2. METHODOLOGY The scoping study was carried out in two phases. Phase 1 focused on identifying the questions to be answered by the research. The research questions identified were:

(a) What are the impacts and implications of climate-induced hazards, including both extreme weather events and slow-onset events, on human mobility in the study areas in Jordan? (b) How can climate change adaptation measures avert and minimize displacement and forced migration by improving the resilience of individuals and communities? The phase began with an inception meeting that was carried out to present the study to the main stakeholders and establish a technical working group. Participants in this meeting included climate and humanitarian specialists, researchers, data analysts and local partners. It was also during this phase that the research scope and methodology were developed. Phase 2 focused on data collection. A literature review was conducted to gather data, studies and reports to identify the data gaps. Mafraq, Irbid, Ajloun and Jerash Governorates were selected due to their mobility dynamics and vulnerability to environmental degradation. To complement the data gaps, primary data collection methods were used, including focus group discussions (FGDs) with a representative sample of the population in terms of age, sex, nationality and socioeconomic status, and consisting of both urban and rural residents, and key informant interviews (KIIs) with government representatives, NGOs, academia, a United Nations agency (UN-Habitat) and community leaders. The following organizations were represented: (a) Non-governmental organizations • Oxfam • UN-Habitat • National Association of Regional Councils (b) Government representatives • Municipal leaders from each governorate: Ajloun, Irbid, Jerash and Mafraq • Department of Statistics (DOS) • Jordan Meteorological Department • Ministry of Agriculture

Nations High Commissioner for Refugees for providing raw data that informed the analysis in this report. The study and this report owe much thanks to the generous funding support of IOM Member States through the IOM Development Fund.iii Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii LIST OF FIGURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi ACRONYMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii GLOSSARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii KEY FINDINGS ............................................................ xiv

possible connections between human mobility and climate change. In the Fourth National Communication, published in 2023 and which used migration data from DOS, areas vulnerable to climate change were identified (Jordan, Ministry of Environment, 2023). Negative migration rates were identified to further examine these hotspots of particular environmental and migration importance. Figure 1. Data collection and analysis Governorates Districts Rural areas Urban areas Site selection Localities Qualitative data (FGDs and KIIs) Natural hazard and migration reports Maps Data Data analysis Geospatial analysis Study report5 Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks As stated in the Fourth National Communication, vulnerability assessments considered four main components: (a) the magnitude of exposure to climate change hazards, (b) the degree of sensitivity to the hazard, (c) the extent of resulting impact and (d) its level of adaptive capacity or resilience (ibid.). The following equations identify the relationship between these four dimensions: Vulnerability (V) = Potential Impact = Exposure (E) x Sensitivity (Is) Resilience or Adaptive Capacity (Ia) Adaptive Capacity (Ia) The most highly vulnerable subdistricts are shown in Table 2 and the map in Figure 2. Table 2. Highly vulnerable subdistricts as at the Fourth National Communication Governorate District Subdistrict Irbid Irbid Qasabah Irbid Qasabah Irbid Ramtha Ramtha Irbid Koorah Koorah Irbid Bani Kinanah Bani Kinanah Ajloun Ajloun Qasabah Sakhrah Ajloun Ajloun Qasabah Erjan Jerash Jerash Qasabah Borma Jerash Jerash Qasabah Mestabah Mafraq Badia Shamaliyah Gharbiyah Badia Shamaliyah Gharbiyah Mafraq Rweished Rweished Mafraq Badia Shamaliyah Salhiya

lie within the governorates with negative migration rates (Figure 3). Although the Mafraq Governorate has a medium net migration rate, it was included with the subdistricts with high migration rates upon the Ministry of Environment’s suggestion. Ajloun, which is rich in vegetation, relies on agriculture and tourism. Irbid, with a high population density, mainly focuses on industrial activity. Jerash is an agro-based centre of great strategic importance, while Mafraq, which also relies on agriculture, is considered to host a large population of refugees relative to its economy. Thus, all these different attributes highlight diverse but interconnected vulnerabilities and adaptive strategies.7 Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks

2. 2.

LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY The data set used to undertake this research comprises three migration data points: 1994, 2004 and 2015. There is inconsistency in the frequency of temporal data collected – the collection of climatic data is annual, while the migration data does not have that kind of regularity. This made it difficult to establish a direct link between migration trends and climate variables since the timelines are asynchronous. The population data used in the study are from 2015. Considering this, some of the trends presented might prove to be outdated. This study report primarily focused on internal migration and the inflow of refugees, while international migration was not covered. While some of the data on disease case records are informative, they also contain information not supported by exact, verifiable facts to compare health problems and climate directly. Such limitations would preclude the ability to show a direct link between such cases and specific natural hazards, and, hence, further investigation establishing causation is required. The current stage of report development prevents substantial gender analysis; however, it is recommended that gender sensitivity be integrated in further research.9 Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks

3. LITERATURE REVIEW

3. 1.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS IN JORDAN Jordan, characterized by semi-dry to dry climate conditions and severe aridity, is one of

Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks

3. LITERATURE REVIEW

3. 1.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS IN JORDAN Jordan, characterized by semi-dry to dry climate conditions and severe aridity, is one of the most water-scarce countries in the world. According to the latest records, more than 90 per cent of Jordan’s territory receives rainfall of less than 200 mm per year, and the long-term rainfall rate is about 95 mm per year (Haddad, 2023). While demand continues to rise, projections suggest that by 2040, there will be 30 per cent less water per capita, indicating dire circumstances for agriculture, cities and social systems (World Bank, 2022). In addition, Jordan faces climate-related hazards such as extreme temperatures, droughts, flash floods, storms and landslides, which are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change. Flooding has caused serious damage in the last few years, including loss of lives and the destruction of several square kilometres of agricultural land and infrastructure (Jordan, Ministry of Environment, 2022). Climate change is also increasing the frequency and intensity of droughts in Jordan, and multi-year droughts are threatening to become the new normal, whereby municipal water supply nears humanitarian thresholds and food insecurity is further exacerbated by a lack of irrigation water. Landslides and erosion, concentrated on the steep slopes of mountains and wadis, affect already vulnerable communities. Climate change affects coastal areas, biodiversity, water, the agricultural sector, urban systems, public health and society at large, and adaptation options are required to mitigate its effects. Jordan is scarce in natural resources and, therefore, highly import-dependent. This makes the country particularly vulnerable to external shocks. The country imports 98 per cent of its energy, and food imports constituted 20 per cent of total imports in 2019, amounting to over 10 per cent of its GDP (World Bank, 2022). These dependencies underscore the country’s need to ensure water, energy and food security in the face of worsening climate

(Mamo, 2022). Jordan’s water sector is the most vulnerable to climate change due to rising temperatures, reduced rainfall, prolonged droughts and floods. The shortage is addressed by overpumping underground wells, whose water withdrawal exceeds the annual water storage rate. Climate change is projected to reduce surface runoff by 18 per cent, thus reducing groundwater recharge by 16 per cent (Jordan, Ministry of Environment, 2023). With a per-capita renewable freshwater resource of 61 cubic metres per year, Jordan’s available water is well below the “severe water scarcity” threshold of 500 m3/year (ibid.). Water demand continues to rise due to steady population growth and the influx of refugee11 Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Disaster Risks populations. Jordan needs about 1.4 billion cubic metres of water annually but maintains a deficit of about 500 million cubic metres annually (Haddad, 2023). The problem of water scarcity has been exacerbated by the political instability in the region, and the primary transboundary surface water resources have decreased over time. Water scarcity has implications for society, economy and health. Rain-fed and irrigated agriculture face risks, consequently impacting food security for the population. In addition, a significant portion of operational expenses in the water sector is the cost of electricity, a resource that creates high dependency on external agencies. Even though water scarcity is a significant threat to resource security and economic development, little progress has been made to significantly improve Jordan’s position as one of the most water-scarce countries globally. Figure 5. Analysis of water sector vulnerability to climate change Impacts of climate change on the surface water: reduction of surface runoff by 18% Impacts of climate change on the groundwater: reduction of groundwater recharge by 16%

An increase of demand for water: 1,167 MCM 2,094 MCM in 2050 3,167 MCM by 2100

Source: Jordan, Ministry of Environment, 2023:298.

Climate change is also projected to reduce rangeland and feed resources by 15 to 31 per cent, adversely affecting cattle and livestock value chains. The Ministry of Agriculture’s National Food Security Strategy emphasizes strengthening “climate resilience” as a key objective, acknowledging that climate change impacts all components of food security and food systems in Jordan. The strategy identifies small and subsistence farmers relying on rainfed agriculture and livestock as particularly vulnerable, with Tafilah highlighted as the most food-insecure governorate. Alarmingly, 53 per cent of Jordanians (approximately 3.9 million people) are vulnerable to food insecurity due to climate change. 3. 1. 3. Health Climate change poses significant health risks in Jordan, impacting various population segments, including farmers, consumers, children and vulnerable groups. The climate change vulnerability assessment in the Fourth National Communication indicates that climate risks such as droughts, dust storms and sandstorms, flooding, shifts