OCDE - Anticipating and monitoring water risks for agriculture in Colombia

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ANTICIPATING AND MONITORING WATER RISKS FOR AGRICULTURE IN COLOMBIA © OECD 2026

Colombia’s agriculture faces a range of water risks, from floods, drought and poor water quality to systemic risks of damaged freshwater systems and a destabilised water cycle. This case study explores Colombia’s approach to monitoring and anticipating water risks to agriculture. It finds that Colombia monitors a range of water-related hazards, but coverage remains uneven across regions and water resources. Colombia is equipped with several water-related risk tools, such as flood and drought risk maps and seasonal weather forecasting products. Further efforts are needed to tailor these products for use in agricultural decision making, develop a more holistic view of water risks to the sector, and move beyond hazard identification towards impact assessment at a more granular scale. Anticipating and monitoring water risks for agriculture in Colombia2  ANTICIPATING AND MONITORING WATER RISKS FOR AGRICULTURE IN COLOMBIA © OECD 2026

The challenge: Water risks to agriculture in Colombia Agriculture is a key pillar of the Colombian economy, accounting for 14% of employment and 8.7% of GDP in 2023; with agro-food exports accounting for 19.9% of all exports in the same year (OECD, 2025[1]). The country’s diverse altitudinal and climatic conditions support a wide range of crops, from tropical products such as bananas, rice and sugarcane to highland cereals, potatoes and vegetables, with coffee having the largest planted area in the country. Most crop production is predominantly rainfed.

Agriculture accounts for 54-60% of total consumptive water demand in Colombia (Ideam, 2023[2]) and 6% of total cropland is irrigated (OECD, 2025[3]). Incentives for efficient water use are limited. Although water abstraction and pollution fees exist, fee levels and collection rates are low. Producers often overuse water

of total cropland is irrigated (OECD, 2025[3]). Incentives for efficient water use are limited. Although water abstraction and pollution fees exist, fee levels and collection rates are low. Producers often overuse water to safeguard historically acquired water rights , and illegal canal construction and unauthorised water use remain common (Taboada et al., 2020[4]). Although Colombia is among the world’s most water -abundant countries, with high average annual precipitation and extensive river systems, water availability is unevenly distributed across regions and seasons, creating contrasting risks of flooding and excess water in some areas and water stress in others (FAO, 2015 [5]). Other inter -related water risks are linked to quality, freshwater system resilience and destabilised water cycles: • Water excess represents one of the most immediate and damaging risks to agricultur e in Colombia. In 2024, floods in the La Mojana region affected 35% cropland in San Benito Abad and 44% in Ayapel , causing losses to agricultural production (FAO, 2024 [6]). In mountainous and 3

ANTICIPATING AND MONITORING WATER RISKS FOR AGRICULTURE IN COLOMBIA © OECD 2026

sloping landscapes, heavy rainfall accelerates landslides, causing irreversible soil loss and lasting declines in land productivity (Vega, Barco and Hidalgo, 2024[7]). • Water scarcity also remains a recurrent constraint for agriculture, reflecting strong seasonal and interannual variability in water availability. In 2015, Colombia experienced one of its worst droughts, causing record-low river flows, major agricultural losses and water shortages (World Bank, 2021[8]). These deficits disproportionately affect rainfed crops and farming systems that have limited access to irrigation, storage or alternative water sources. • Inadequate water quality can limit the reliability of water resources for agricultural use. Drivers include d iffuse pollution from fertilisers, livestock, sediments and organic matter (Rey-Romero,

These deficits disproportionately affect rainfed crops and farming systems that have limited access to irrigation, storage or alternative water sources. • Inadequate water quality can limit the reliability of water resources for agricultural use. Drivers include d iffuse pollution from fertilisers, livestock, sediments and organic matter (Rey-Romero, Domínguez and Oviedo-Ocaña, 2022[9]). Mining activities further compromise water quality through the release of toxic substances (Casso-Hartmann et al., 2022 [10]). Informal and illicit mining – a significant concern in Colombia1 – causes substantial degradation of water quality and ecosystems, driven by harmful practices such as the use of outlawed mercury and the absence of environmental safeguards (Global Financial Integrity, 2021[11]). Groundwater in some areas of the country may be too contaminated for use in irrigation (Huerfano-Moreno et al., 2023 [12]); (Marrugo-Negrete, Paternina-Uribe and Enamorado-Montes, 2024[13]). • Damaged freshwater systems reduce the natural buffering capacity that underpins agricultural water security. Wetlands, floodplains, rivers and páramos2 play a critical role in retaining rainwater, moderating floods, sustaining dry season flows and improving water quality. However, widespread ecosystem degradation and wetland conversion have weakened these functions across Colombia (Ricaurte et al., 2017[14]); (Rey-Romero, Domínguez and Oviedo-Ocaña, 2022[9]). • A destabilised water cycle is emerging from the interaction of climate variability and ecosystem degradation. Colombia’s rainfall patterns are strongly influenced by the El Niño -Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate phenomenon, with p eriods of intense or prolonged rainfall during La Niña phases and reductions in precipitation, river discharge and soil moisture in El Niño events (Ávila et al., 2019[15]; Vargas-León and Giraldo-Osorio, 2024[16]). Climate projections indicate that

Niña phases and reductions in precipitation, river discharge and soil moisture in El Niño events (Ávila et al., 2019[15]; Vargas-León and Giraldo-Osorio, 2024[16]). Climate projections indicate that ENSO-related rainfall variability is very likely to intensify by the second half of the 21st century (IPCC, 2021[17]). Furthermore, much rainfall in Colombia originates from the moisture evaporated over the Amazon and Orinoco basins in eastern Colombia and neighbouring Brazil and Venezuela (Hoyos et al., 2018[18]). Land use changes in upwind regions can reshape moisture transport and therefore rainfall patterns in agricultural areas downwind (De Petrillo et al., 2025 [19]). Given the reliance on rainfed agriculture, rainfall variability and ENSO anomalies translate into widespread yield and income risks. Coffee and bananas made up a significant part of Colombia’s agro-food exports by value in 2024 (OECD, 2025[1]) and are generally grown in areas of low water stress. The country’s major agro-food imports include cereals – primarily maize (97% of which is from the United States), wheat (63% from Canada, 23% from the United States) and soybean (nearly 100% from United States) – as well as soybean oilcake (used for animal feed) and soybean oil, largely from the United States and Bolivia (FAOSTAT, 2025[20]). Some cereal imports, notably maize, come from regions of high water stress (WRI, 2021[21]). Colombia’s approach to anticipating and monitoring water risks for agriculture Colombia has developed a solid foundation for monitoring and anticipating many water -related hazards although coverage remains uneven across regions and water resources . The Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies ( Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales, IDEAM) generates hydrometeorological and climatic information that supports national early warning efforts and guides planning across sectors. IDEAM, along with regional authorities ( Regional

Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies ( Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales, IDEAM) generates hydrometeorological and climatic information that supports national early warning efforts and guides planning across sectors. IDEAM, along with regional authorities ( Regional Autonomous Corporations, Corporaciones Autónomas Regionales, CARs), oversees monitoring networks4  ANTICIPATING AND MONITORING WATER RISKS FOR AGRICULTURE IN COLOMBIA © OECD 2026

for weather, streamflow and water quality, although stations are concentrated in the Magdalena region, while monitoring is sparser in the Amazon, Orinoco and Pacific regions. 11% of IDEAM’s 2 854 hydrometeorological stations are a utomatic (IDEAM, 2022 [22]), providing near-real-time observations of precipitation, water levels and river discharge. This in situ infrastructure is complemented by Earth Observation data, for example, for streamflow monitoring. Surface water quality is also monitored at national scale through monthly to annual sampling campaigns . T here is no systematic monitoring of groundwater quantity or quality (Lora-Ariza, Piña and Donado, 2024[23]). These monitoring networks feed into a national environmental information system with strong potential to support comprehensive water risk assessment . Data are reported, validated and shared through the Water Resources Information System ( Sistema de Información del Recurso Hídrico , SIRH), which is under the oversight of the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development (MinAmbiente), with technical implementation led by IDEAM and regional and urban environmental authorities (MinAmbiente, 2024[24]). The SIRH is organised across five core components – water availability, demand, quality, risk and management . SIRH supports the implementation of Colombia’s National Policy for Integrated Water Resources Management (PNGIRH) and regional Water Resource Management Plans 3 (PORH). All information is publicly accessible and at the disposal of public authorities, including the Ministry of Agriculture. This monitoring and data infrastructure, combined with modelling and forecasting capacity,

Integrated Water Resources Management (PNGIRH) and regional Water Resource Management Plans 3 (PORH). All information is publicly accessible and at the disposal of public authorities, including the Ministry of Agriculture. This monitoring and data infrastructure, combined with modelling and forecasting capacity, enables the production of several water-risk tools. IDEAM produces water-related risk tools, including flood risk maps and early warning systems, drought risk maps, seasonal climate forecasting products and water quality maps. In co -operation with international partnerships, IDEAM also produces climate ris k assessments to support long -term planning and which feed into national policy documents such as the National Communication on Climate Change and Colombia’s Long-Term Climate Strategy (Table 1). However, few tools in Colombia are specifically tailored for use by decision makers in agriculture, hampering the comprehensive assessment of water risks for the sector . There is limited systematic assessment of agricultural exposure and vulnerability to water -related hazards, meaning that risk and impact assessment remains relatively weak. Most established tools do not quantify which crops, livestock systems or irrigation schemes are exposed to hazards, how sensitive they are to different water risks, or what the expected impacts may be on yields, incomes and livelihoods. As a result, information remains largely hazard-focused, rather than risk and impact-based. An exception is the a groclimatic bulletin (Boletíns Técnicos Agroclimáticos ), a core water risk anticipation tool for Colombia’s agricultural sector. Produced through the Local Technical Agroclimatic Committees (Mesas Técnicas Agroclimáticas, MTAs) (Box 1), these monthly bulletins integrate seasonal climate forecasts, ENSO analyses, agroecological assessments and provide practical recommendations for farmers, guiding planting dates, crop management, irrigation and pest control (Ideam, 2025[25]). Furthermore, monitoring and assessment do not yet cover the full range of water risks affecting agriculture or agro-food trade. As in many countries, attention tends to focus on the risks of “too much” or “too little” water, and to some extent on the risk of inadequate water quality. However, the risk of

Furthermore, monitoring and assessment do not yet cover the full range of water risks affecting agriculture or agro-food trade. As in many countries, attention tends to focus on the risks of “too much” or “too little” water, and to some extent on the risk of inadequate water quality. However, the risk of undermining the resilience of f reshwater systems, which affects water regulation, quality, baseflows and long-term water availability for agriculture, is not systematically assessed in terms of its implicat ions for farming systems. Similarly, there is little systemic anticipation of the risk of a destabilised water cycle; that said, few countries currently monitor these systemic water risks to agriculture. Finally, Colombia does not monitor its exposure to imported water risks, meaning that potential disruptions – such as floods or droughts in exporting countries – are not assessed for their impact on agro-food imports and food security. 5

ANTICIPATING AND MONITORING WATER RISKS FOR AGRICULTURE IN COLOMBIA © OECD 2026

Table 1. Water risk relevant tools used in Colombia Water risks covered Tool Provider Description Tailored for agriculture?1 Excess water Flood risk maps IDEAM Multiscale flood risk maps use satellite imagery, remote sensing and data from hydrological monitoring networks to depict inundation extents, flood prone areas and land use within them, combining regional maps of La Niña related floodings with detailed local hazard studies that include analyses of flood depth, velocity and return period. IDEAM also compiles national inventories of floods, flash floods and sudden rises (Ideam, 2023[2]). Partially. Flood prone areas are overlaid with land use, showing exposure of agriculture Excess water Flood early warning FEWS-Colombia IDEAM, CARs An integrated hydrometeorological monitoring and forecasting platform that provides real-time information on key variables, including river levels from a network of automated monitoring stations. It is the country’s main Flood Early Warning System.

warning FEWS-Colombia IDEAM, CARs An integrated hydrometeorological monitoring and forecasting platform that provides real-time information on key variables, including river levels from a network of automated monitoring stations. It is the country’s main Flood Early Warning System. No Excess water, water shortage Streamflow and flood forecasting using GEO-GloWS ECMWF IDEAM in partnership with GEOGloWS Underpinned by Earth Observation data, this tool leverages hydrological models and high-resolution meteorological data to provide real-time forecasts of river discharge. Streamflow data can be used for flood anticipation/early warnings, low-flow risks and water quality forecasting. Applications customised for Colombia include the HydroViewer, the Historical Validation Tool and the National Water Level Forecast. No Water shortage Drought monitoring and risk maps IDEAM The national drought monitoring system uses observed hydrometeorological data and Earth observation products, including CHIRPS precipitation data, soil moisture datasets and runoff information. Univariate and multivariate standardised drought indices integrating precipitation, soil moisture and runoff are calculated at multiple temporal aggregations to characterise meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought. These indices are used to generate maps at national, hydrographic zone and departmental levels, supporting the assessment of drought severity, affected areas and susceptibility to water shortages. No Excess water, water shortage, destabilised water cycle Seasonal weather forecasting via short-, mediumand long-term climate forecast reports IDEAM An official national climate outlook, the report integrates observational data and outputs from national and international climate models to characterise the current and projected state of the ocean-atmosphere system, considering the influence of ENSO. It provides probabilistic and deterministic forecasts of precipitation and temperature across multiple time horizons, while explicitly accounting for the levels of uncertainty associated with each

climate models to characterise the current and projected state of the ocean-atmosphere system, considering the influence of ENSO. It provides probabilistic and deterministic forecasts of precipitation and temperature across multiple time horizons, while explicitly accounting for the levels of uncertainty associated with each forecast period (Ideam, 2026[26]). No Excess water, water shortage Agroclimatic bulletins Local Technical Agroclimatic Committees (MTAs) Core climate and water risk anticipation tool for Colombia’s agricultural sector supporting climate informed decision making by farmers. MTAs combine IDEAM forecasts and station data with local observations, agronomic datasets and simple crop-water balance or phenology tools. Where capacity exists, crop models (e.g. AquaCrop/DSSAT) help test planting windows and irrigation needs. Recommendations are validated through stakeholder discussion and disseminated via extension networks. Yes Poor water quality Water quality maps IDEAM National maps depict the level of water quality degradation and the potential risk of contamination across surface water bodies derived from the Water Quality Index (Índice de calidad del agua, ICA) and the Potential Water Quality Alteration Index (Índice de alteración potencial de la calidad del agua, IACAL). Water quality assessment is provided by IDEAM using a national monitoring framework (Ideam, 2023[2]). The evaluation combines in situ physicochemical and heavy metals measurements from the national water quality network (Red de Referencia Nacional de Calidad del Agua, RNCA) and regional monitoring programmes, with higher resolution analysis in priority basins such as the Bogotá River. The ICA is calculated at monitoring points using six key variables: dissolved oxygen, chemical oxygen demand, total suspended solids, pH, electrical conductivity, and the total nitrogen to phosphorus ratio.

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a local coordinating institution and supported by a technical team. The effectiveness of the process relies on voluntary participation, sustained leadership, trust and strong local engagement. MTA services have reached over one million farmers and are also used by local governments and risk management agencies (AGROSAVIA, 2024 [29]). Evidence from Córdoba, where rice producers adjusted planting calendars based on MTA guidance to avoid weather -related losses, illustrates how MTAs contribute to reduce climate risk and improve decision making at the farm level (Blundo Canto et al., 2025[27]).

Lessons learnt: Towards better water risk assessment • A more holistic understanding of water -related risks to agriculture is needed, extending beyond water excess and drought to include water quality pressures, declining freshwater Watershed pollutant-load models IDEAM The water quality component of the National Water Study provides watershed-scale assessments of pollutant loads and water quality status. While not exclusively focused on agriculture, this instrument is the national baseline for identifying priority areas and informing regulatory and policy interventions affecting agricultural activities.

No Excess water, water shortage, poor water quality National Water Study (ENA) IDEAM Produced every four years, the National Water Study (Estudio Nacional del Agua, ENA) provides an integrated national assessment of water availability, demand and quality. Assesses the blue and green water footprint of five economic sectors, including agriculture, for Colombia’s 316 river basins (Ideam, 2023[2]). Partially. Agriculture included in water demand assessments Excess water, water shortage, destabilised water cycle Climate risk assessment MinAmbiente Within the framework of the Colombia 2050 Long-Term Climate Strategy (E2050), provides probabilistic risk assessments for floods, droughts and tropical cyclones; considers agricultural exposure

Excess water, water shortage, destabilised water cycle Climate risk assessment MinAmbiente Within the framework of the Colombia 2050 Long-Term Climate Strategy (E2050), provides probabilistic risk assessments for floods, droughts and tropical cyclones; considers agricultural exposure under four climate futures (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5.5). Yes Excess water, water shortage, destabilised water cycle National Communications (NC) on Climate Change IDEAM Submitted to the UNFCCC, the most recent NC published in 2017 included vulnerability analysis and climate change scenarios at regional, sectoral and national levels. These provide nationally endorsed baselines and long-term projections of temperature, precipitation and extremes intended to support basin-scale waterrisk assessment and adaptation planning for agriculture. Vulnerability and risk scenarios are forecast at broad temporal and spatial scales, limiting their usefulness for local planning. Partially 7

ANTICIPATING AND MONITORING WATER RISKS FOR AGRICULTURE IN COLOMBIA © OECD 2026

ecosystem resilience and broader changes in the water cycle. Strengthening groundwater quantity and quality monitoring will be increasingly important. Rising rainfall variability – particularly the likely intensification of ENSO -driven extremes (Castellanos et al., 2022 [30]) and land use changes in areas that supply rainfall to Colombia – may push agricultural systems towards greater reliance on groundwater resources, amplifying the consequences of existing monitoring gaps. Groundwater data will also be important to better estimate environmental flows, vital to ecosystem resilience . Identifying the natural landscapes that are sources of rainfall for agriculture will provide a more complete picture of water -related risk. Longer-term r isk anticipation could also be improved by downscaling climate vulnerability and risk models to regional and municipal levels , which will require strengthening capacity within IDEAM and local authorities (UNDP, 2017 [31]). Finally,

oxygen, chemical oxygen demand, total suspended solids, pH, electrical conductivity, and the total nitrogen to phosphorus ratio.

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1. Indicates whether the tool is t ailored for application to water risk assessment for agriculture, e.g. considers exposure or vulnerability of agriculture to hazard, or assesses impacts of risk on agriculture in terms of yield loss, loss of revenues, etc.

Box 1. Mesas Técnicas Agroclimáticas Providing timely, accessible and operational climate information at the farm level is critical to effective agricultural decision making. In Colombia, the Local Technical Agroclimatic Committees (Mesas Técnicas Agroclimáticas, MTAs) represent a leading example of how this can be achieved. Established as pilots in the Departments of Cauca and Córdoba in 2013, MTAs have evolved into de centralised platforms across the country that bring together public institutions, research organisations, international organisations and producer associations (gremios) to co-produce agroclimatic services tailored to local needs (Blundo Canto et al., 2025 [27]). At the national level the initiative is led by the Ministry of Agriculture in partnership with FAO and IDEAM. MTAs facilitate participatory interpretation of climate and weather information and translate forecasts into actionable recommendations for agriculture, using crop models and stakeholder discussions to develop advice. Their primary output is the monthly Ag roclimatic Technical Bulletin, which provides weather summaries, seasonal outlooks, warnings of extreme weather events and crop -specific guidance in formats accessible to farmers and extension services (FAO, 2024[28]). Each MTA is led by a local coordinating institution and supported by a technical team. The effectiveness of the process relies on voluntary participation, sustained leadership, trust and strong local engagement. MTA services have reached over one million farmers and are also used by local governments and risk

complete picture of water -related risk. Longer-term r isk anticipation could also be improved by downscaling climate vulnerability and risk models to regional and municipal levels , which will require strengthening capacity within IDEAM and local authorities (UNDP, 2017 [31]). Finally, monitoring exposure to water risks through Colombia’s agro -food imports would bolster food security preparedness. • Existing water-related information should be better tailored to support decision making in agriculture, particularly by assessing the exposure and vulnerability of crops and farming systems to different water-related hazards. This could include systematically overlaying agricultural layers, such as crop distribution and irrigation areas, onto hazard and ri sk maps to move beyond hazard identification towards impact -focused analysis. More broadly, there is a need to strengthen integrated impact assessments by combining hydrological information with agronomic and socioeconomic data, for example to assess the effects of drought or flood on crop yields and farm incomes. Strengthening collaboration between IDEAM and the Ministry of Agriculture to coproduce water risk information tailored to agricultural decision making would be valuable in addressing these gaps. International co-operation to transfer good practice in risk monitoring and assessment can also be useful in this regard. • Local Technical Agroclimatic Committees offer significant potential to strengthen the uptake of water risk information in agricultural decision making. These committees have proven to be an effective and innovative mechanism for the co -production and dissemination of climate information to inform farm -level decisions. Building on this experience, they could play a more prominent role in anticipating and assessing a broader range of water -related risks to agriculture, beyond climate variability alone. The effectiveness of governance and co -ordination mechanisms rely on their ability to convene all relevant stakeholders around risk assessment and planning. This includes Indigenous and Afro -descendant authorities and peasant agriculture (ACFEC)4 organisations in Colombia. OECD Resources This case study is a companion piece to the following OECD Policy Paper: OECD (2026), “Anticipating and monitoring water risks for agriculture”, OECD Food, Agriculture and

planning. This includes Indigenous and Afro -descendant authorities and peasant agriculture (ACFEC)4 organisations in Colombia. OECD Resources This case study is a companion piece to the following OECD Policy Paper: OECD (2026), “Anticipating and monitoring water risks for agriculture”, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers, No. 226, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/24939e6a-en.8  ANTICIPATING AND MONITORING WATER RISKS FOR AGRICULTURE IN COLOMBIA © OECD 2026

References

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28e305fe81bc/content. [5] FAOSTAT (2025), Detailed trade matrix (database), https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/TM (accessed on 5 February 2026). [20] 9

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Global Financial Integrity (2021), The Gold Standard: Addressing Illicit Financial Flows in the Colombian Gold Sector