OCDE - How well prepared are upper secondary students to succeed

How well prepared are upper secondary students to succeed in tertiary education?EDUCATION INDICATORS IN FOCUS The transition from secondary education is a pivotal stage in young people’s lives, marking their progression into adulthood and carrying strong symbolic significance across countries. Upper secondary school leaving examinations (such as A-levels, the Abitur, the baccalauréat or the matura) continue to represent key milestones, reflecting family, school and societal expectations. Completing upper secondary education provides an advantage in the labour marketin 2024, around 60% of 2534 year-olds without an upper secondary qualification were employed, compared with 79% of those who had attained this level ( (OECD, 2025, Chapter A3). However, tertiary education is required for many jobs in the modern labour market, is associated with better labour market outcomes, and demand has expanded rapidly, with an increasingly large share of each cohort transitioning to this level before starting their careers In many countries today, more than half of each generation will gain a tertiary education. This expansionis reflected earlier in the pipeline, in the substantial growth in the number of upper secondary applicants to academic and vocational or professional tertiary programmes. Despite this increased demand, a large share of applicants are still successful in achieving their preferred options. On average across the 20 countries and economies with data available, Education at a Glance 2025 found that nearly two-thirds of upper secondary graduates applying to tertiary education were admitted to at least one of their preferred programmes in 2024 ( (OECD, 2025;,), Chapter D6) However, this is not the case across all education systems. The share of upper secondary applicants who are offered at least one place in tertiary education varies greatly from country to country. It is very high in France (95%), Greece (90%), the Slovak Republic (86%) and Czechia (83%), while it remains much lower in Finland (41%), Sweden (39%) and Scotland (United Kingdom) (34%) (Figure 1) These differences reflect different admission models. The countries where a large proportion of upper

very high in France (95%), Greece (90%), the Slovak Republic (86%) and Czechia (83%), while it remains much lower in Finland (41%), Sweden (39%) and Scotland (United Kingdom) (34%) (Figure 1) These differences reflect different admission models. The countries where a large proportion of upper secondary applicants are admitted typically have tertiary systems with substantial capacity, a wide range of short-cycle or vocational programmes and less selective admission procedures. Together, these features tend to make entry into tertiary education less competitive. France, for example, combines selective programmes with large non-selective university tracks, alongside relatively well-developed short-cycle tertiary programmes, enabling the majority of applicants to receive at least one offer of a place. High admission rates in other countries may also reflect efforts to expand participation in tertiary education. In Czechia, Greece and the Slovak Republic, for instance, the share of young people (25 34 year-olds) attaining tertiary education remains below the OECD average. In this context, policy priorities to broaden access and attract more students to tertiary education have led to admissions systems which are less selective ( (OECD, 2025,,), Chapters Al and D6) 2 EDUCATION INDICATORS IN FOCUS #92 - MAY © OECD 2026Figure 1. Share of applicants to first degree tertiary education who are accepted (2024) = Proportion of applicants accepted, not studying = Proportion of applicants accepted and studying ' Proporiion of applicants acoepted (studying or nof)

1. Year of reference: 2023.

Source: OECD (2025, Education at a Glance 2025: OECD Indicators, hitps://doi.org/10.1787/1c0d9c79-en.

Conversely, countries like Finland and Sweden, which have among the lowest shares of successful applicants to a first degree programmes, are more selective and have more limited capacity. The prevalence of gap years may also influence the timing and volume of applications. Scotland (United Kingdom) has a slightly different profile, with strong competition for some highly soughtapplicants to a first degree programmes, are more selective and have more limited capacity. The prevalence of gap years may also influence the timing and volume of applications. Scotland (United Kingdom) has a slightly different profile, with strong competition for some highly soughtafter programmes and limited alternative non-selective pathways. Selectivity can also be due to very demanding academic criteria. In Spain, certain tertiary fields of study, such as medicine and architecture, require applicants to have achieved high academic performance and sit competitive entrance exams. Such rigour can lead to better completion rates later on - for example, students in the Netherlands who were admitted to study medicine through a selective process perform better than those admitted by lottery based on their grades ((OECD, 2025;,), Chapters BS and D6). A successful application does not guarantee that candidates will immediately pursue their studies. The share of upper secondary applicants who have been offered a tertiary education place but have not taken it up varies widely across countries, from only 1% in Spain, to 23% in Denmark and 27% in Norway (Figure 1). In Denmark, it is common for students to take a gap year before entering tertiary education, even if they have been accepted into a tertiary programme, sometimes to take up temporary employment — for example, as substitute teachers in primary schools. In Norway, the gap year is also very common and is often a normal step in the transition from secondary to tertiary education ( (OECD, 2025,), Chapters B5 and D6).

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INDICATORS IN FOCUS Once admitted, the path through tertiary education is not always smooth for most students Gaining admission to tertiary education does not necessarily mean students will complete their studies as planned. On average, only 43% of students enrolled in bachelor’s programmes will complete their studies within the expected timeframe. In only a handful of countries — Ireland, Israel, Romania, the Republic of Tiirkiye and the United Kingdom - does the share exceed 60%,

studies as planned. On average, only 43% of students enrolled in bachelor’s programmes will complete their studies within the expected timeframe. In only a handful of countries — Ireland, Israel, Romania, the Republic of Tiirkiye and the United Kingdom - does the share exceed 60%, while in Austria, Chile, Colombia, the French Community of Belgium and Peru it is less than 25%. On average, one year after the end of the theoretical duration of the programme, completion rates have risen by around 16 percentage points, suggesting that some students graduate with a slight delay. Beyond two additional years, completion rates continue to increase by 11 percentage points, reaching around 70%, suggesting that a non-negligible share of those still enrolled at that stage do eventually complete rather than drop out (Figure 2) For instance, in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden) and Canada, taking longer to complete a programme is not necessarily a sign of educational failure. Study paths tend to be more flexible, with gap years, professional activities or changes of programme being more common. As a result, trajectories are less linear, and one to three years after the theoretical duration the vast majority of students will have ultimately completed their degree. Other systemic factors shape students’ progression and completion of tertiary education. In some countries, national conscription policies are an additional structural influence on educational pathways. In Finland, for example, compulsory military service partly explains why only 37% of men complete their bachelor’s degree within the allotted time, compared to 59% of women. In Estonia, where this obligation also applies to men, the gap in completion rates does not narrow over time, suggesting that many of them do not resume their studies after military service ( (OECD, 2025,,), Chapter B5) Finally, the cost of education can affect both entry into tertiary education and completion rates, sometimes in contradictory ways. On the one hand, high tuition fees can limit access for some young people while on the other hand, for those who do enter the system, they can encourage them to complete their studies promptly to reduce their student debt. In England (United Kingdom),

sometimes in contradictory ways. On the one hand, high tuition fees can limit access for some young people while on the other hand, for those who do enter the system, they can encourage them to complete their studies promptly to reduce their student debt. In England (United Kingdom), where fees are among the highest in the OECD (over USD 13 000 per year), graduates complete their studies with an average debt of USD 68 000, and this financial pressure leads many students to accelerate their progress ( (OECD, 2025,,), Chapter C5). In systems where tertiary education is free or virtually free, such as in Finland or Norway, there is less financial pressure and students are more willing to take a break or extend their tertiary studies. Some research also shows that high tuition fees can increase academic effort among those already enrolled, while potentially discouraging entry into tertiary education, illustrating the complexity of their impact (Bietenbeck et al., 2023,]) Despite the immediate cost, the prospect of higher salaries for graduates still encourages many young people to pursue studies ( (OECD, 2025,), Chapter A4) Among students who drop out altogether, the first year of tertiary education emerges as a critical time. It is during this period that some students realise that their chosen field of study is not the right fit, or that they are struggling to balance their studies with employment and personal commitments. In countries and economies such as Brazil, Colombia, the French Community of Belgium, Luxembourg, Peru and Romania, at least one in five students — sometimes more - leave tertiary education during their first year ( (OECD, 2025, ), Chapter B5) ‘While these patterns partly reflect students’ choices and preparedness, they also point to the importance of the support provided within tertiary institutions. Academic guidance, flexible pathways, financial support and early intervention mechanisms can play a key role in helping students persist and succeed. Programme design is one important dimension of this institutional context. In some education systems such early dropout is partly shaped by the structure of assessments within tertiary programmes. Some hold high-stakes exams early in the programme which students must pass

students persist and succeed. Programme design is one important dimension of this institutional context. In some education systems such early dropout is partly shaped by the structure of assessments within tertiary programmes. Some hold high-stakes exams early in the programme which students must pass to continue their studies. These act as a filter and quickly identify students who are not meeting academic expectations. Conversely, other systems hold the first major assessments later, thereby potentially delaying the decision to drop out ( (OECD, 2025, Chapter B5) 4 EDUCATION INDICATORS IN FOCUS #92 - MAY © OECD 2026Figure 2.Completion rates of new entrants to bachelor’s programmes, by timeframe (2023) Share of full-time students entering a bachelor’s programme who completed any tertiary level mBy the end of the theoretical duration of the programme By the end of the theoretical duration of the programme plus © By the end of the theoretical duration of the programme plus one year % three years 100 [ 4 L ° L S RaE . ] L . 4 hd [ ® |e o 70 s [o® Ld [ ol® |®e 0 S st o e 3 o — o | | ° ° °|9 ol 50 . . ) ° 0 | e 30 . ® k4 20 1 . | LT 0 - =2 = = < = 2 > =9 = o % = EEECEC T R CSEEP B SR R EEEEEEE2EE 22522858 c5E888¢e¢c¢cs853 v 2sPe E32E822 5 cFe =g IcEEaad S8 0§ S2E8%8 E S § s 3 5 €2 g H ©o E E 8 8 g € 2 2 g 2 1. Year of reference differs from 2023.

E S § s 3 5 €2 g H ©o E E 8 8 g € 2 2 g 2 1. Year of reference differs from 2023. ‘Source: OECD (20251, , Education at a Glance 2025: OECD Indicators, hitps:/doi.org/10.1787/1c0d9¢79-en, Chapter B5. by Better guidance at school would help upper secondary students choose the best career path Improving completion ratesin tertiary education is not only about what happens within institutions, but also about the choices students make before entering them. In this regard, effective career guidance in upper secondary education plays a crucial role. According to the latest Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2022 data, nearly 39% of 15-year-old students do not know what career they want to pursue - a level of uncertainty that has risen sharply over the past decade on average across countries (Figure 3) Even among those who do have a plan, there can be a significant gap between the level of qualification required for their chosen field and the educational goals they set for themselves One in five students wanted a career that requires tertiary education but did not plan to continue their studies beyond secondary school in 2022. Such mismatches can lead to poor study choices, subsequent re-orientation and, in some cases, students dropping out early from tertiary education

(OECD, 2025,,) EDUCATION INDICATORS IN FOCUS #92 - MAY © OECD 2026 5EDUCATION

INDICATORS IN FOCUS Figure 3. Career uncertainty among 15-year-old students participating in PISA (2000 to 2022) % 4 40 35 30 25 20

15 I 0 I I I 2000 2003 2006 2015 2018 202

% 4 40 35 30 25 20

15 I 0 I I I 2000 2003 2006 2015 2018 202

Note: This figure shows the average share of students who did not give a clear response to the question: “What kind of job do you expect to have when you are about 30 years old?” This question was not asked in 2009 or 2012. The countries participating in al relevant surveys are: Australia, Austria, Czechia, France, Gemany, Greece, Hungary, Irslandl, taly, Mexico, Portugal, South Korea and the Urited Kingdom. Source: OECD (2025,), The State of Global Teenage Career Preparation, https://doiorg/10.1787/d58e812-en.

In a context where career paths are becoming more complex and young people more uncertain, providing effective guidance before the end of upper secondary education is essential to support informed choices, facilitate transitions to tertiary education and improve completion rates. The extent to which students receive support in making educational choices varies widely across countries, however. The Nordic countries and Ireland lead the way in integrating qualified guidance counsellors into both socio-economically advantaged and disadvantaged upper secondary schools in 2018 (Figure 4). This is noteworthy, as gap years are common in some of these countries. Support is therefore both early and repeated, with the aim of supporting career choices of 15-year-old students while allowing real flexibility for individual pathways. In contrast, in most countries, guidance services, where they exist, are much less accessible to the most vulnerable students. On average across OECD countries, 15-year-old students in socioeconomically disadvantaged schools have far fewer opportunities to speak with a specialist about their academic and professional future. In only ten countries were students in disadvantaged schools more likely to benefit from career guidance provided by a dedicated counsellor, while in most others the opposite was true. Gaps exceeded 40 percentage points in OECD and partner countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Greece, Mexico, Peru and Romania (Figure 4). This situation is

schools more likely to benefit from career guidance provided by a dedicated counsellor, while in most others the opposite was true. Gaps exceeded 40 percentage points in OECD and partner countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Greece, Mexico, Peru and Romania (Figure 4). This situation is particularly concerning given that not all such students benefit from sufficiently informed family support. It should be noted, however, that in most countries, other upper secondary teachers also play an advisory role for students, particularly in supporting them in their career choices ( (OECD, 2024,), Table D4.4). This should encourage policymakers to Invest in their training, as this support requires specific skills. In response to these challenges, several countries and economies are attempting to take action. In the Flemish Community of Belgium, for example, the Columbus tool helps upper secondary school students identify the tertiary education programmes that suit them best, based on an assessment of their skills and preferences (Euroguidance Network, 2025,). In Singapore, students aged 13 and above follow a structured career guidance programme that includes mentoring, professional meetings, and work experience projects (Singapore Ministry of Education, 2025, 6 EDUCATION INDICATORS IN FOCUS #92 - MAY © OECD 2026Figure 4. Schools providing career guidance, by school advantage or disadvantage (2018) Percentage of 15-yearold students in schools that provide one or more dedicated career guidance counsellors © @ Disadvantaged schools @ W Advantaged schools 0 10 2 30 40 50 60 70 80 Sweden ) Norway a Portugal ~—=u Ireland Finland Iceland Denmark ‘E o3 Spain United Arab Emirates —u a a Morocco om Siovak Republic oa — > Singapore: — om K> Poland o = -— Australia M Malaysia [ Lurembourg Dominican Republc Korea OECD average Germany France B-5-J-Z (China) ‘Saudi Arabia Brunei Darussalam Uruguay Netheriands Brazl | # Chie Litania Baku (Azerbaien) Montenegro

K> Poland o = -— Australia M Malaysia [ Lurembourg Dominican Republc Korea OECD average Germany France B-5-J-Z (China) ‘Saudi Arabia Brunei Darussalam Uruguay Netheriands Brazl | # Chie Litania Baku (Azerbaien) Montenegro Macao (China) Israel Chinese Taipei Moklova Indonesia Vet Nam O— Hong Kong (China) o— Georga = —a LT —a ‘Thailand ©o—a = North Macedonia Bosnia and Herzegovina | B—> Japan —— Note: Statistically significant differences are marked in a darker tone. Source: OECD (2018,), PISA 2018 Database, www.oecd org/en/dataldatasets/pisa-2018-database htm), Table Il B1.6.9.

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INDICATORS IN FOCUS The bottom line As access to tertiary education has expanded across OECD countries, ensuring students make a smooth transition to tertiary education and successfully complete their studies have become central challenges. These challenges reflect both differences in system design — such as admission models, assessment structures and financial incentives —and increasing uncertainty among young people, combined with the growing diversification of educational pathways. To reduce early dropout and promote the completion of tertiary education, education systems must strengthen career guidance for students in upper secondary education, provide clearer and more flexible pathways, and guarantee equitable access to effective support.

REFERENCES: Bietenbeck, J. et al. (2023), “Tuition fees and educational attainment”, European [2]

Economic Review, Vol. 154, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104431 Euroguidance Network (2025), Guidance System in Belgium (Flanders), https:// [5] euroguidance.eu/guidance-system-in-belgium-flanders

Euroguidance Network (2025), Guidance System in Belgium (Flanders), https:// [5] euroguidance.eu/guidance-system-in-belgium-flanders ECD (2025), Education at a Glance 2025: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris, [1] https://doi.org/10.1787/1c0d9¢c79-en OECD (2025), The State of Global Teenage Career Preparation, OECD Publishing, Paris., [3] https://doi.org/10.1787/d5{8e3f2-en. OECD (2024), Education at a Glance 2024: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris, [4] https://doi.org/10.1787/c00cad36-en. OECD (2018), PISA 2018 Database, OECD, Paris, https://www.oecd.org/en/data/ 7] datasets/pisa-2018-database html, Singapore Ministry of Education (2025), Education and Career Guidance, https//www. [6] moe.gov.sg/education-in-sg/our-programmes/education-and-career-guidance, VISIT www.oecd.org/education/education-at-a-glance-19991487.htm Education Indicators in Focus (previous issues) PISA in Focus Teaching in Focus 0» OECD CONTACT: Eric Charbonnier eric.charbonnier@oecd.org Photo credit: © Christopher Futcher / iStock; © Marc Romanelii/ Gettyimages; © michaefung / Shutterstock; © Pressmaster / Shutterstock This work is published under the responsibilty of the Secretary-General of the OECD.

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