OCDE - OECD Employment Outlook 2026 France

 1

OECD EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK 2026: FRANCE © OECD 2026

These country notes provide an overview of the labour market situation in each country based on data from OECD Employment Outlook 2026. This edition has a special focus on geographic disparities in job s and incomes. Labour markets remain resilient but show further signs of weakening The OECD labour market remains resilient, with employment and labour force participation rates at record highs (72.1% and 76.7% in Q1 2026 on average across countries, respectively) and unemployment low by historical standards (4.9% in May 2026). However, there are increasing signs of weakening, including rising unemployment in many countries, slowing employment growth, and easing labour shorta ges. Due to the new surge in energy prices, real wages are expected to fall in many countries. • In May 2026, the French unemployment rate was 8.2%, well above the OECD average of 4.9 % (see figure below). At 0.6 percentage points (p.p.), its annual growth was among the highest in the OECD. • The employment rate has increased from 68.7% in Q1 2024 to 69.4% in Q1 2026, and labour force participation has increased from 74.3% in Q1 2024 to 75.6% in Q1 2026. These increases are primarily due to older workers. • Labour shortages are close to pre-COVID19 levels, but remain higher than during the pre-pandemic decade, for a number of structural reasons. • Since the pandemic, employment has been supported by strong labour hoarding in many OECD countries, including France – i.e. firms have preferred to adjust to negative shocks by retaining their staff while reducing working hours rather than cutting jobs. Labour hoard ing has been declining in France but remains well above pre-COVID-19 levels. Th is could exacerbate the employment consequences of any strong economic downturn in the future, as firms would then be forced to let go the staff they have retained.

retaining their staff while reducing working hours rather than cutting jobs. Labour hoard ing has been declining in France but remains well above pre-COVID-19 levels. Th is could exacerbate the employment consequences of any strong economic downturn in the future, as firms would then be forced to let go the staff they have retained. • Before the new surge in energy prices, real wages in France had caught up with their early 2021 levels – in Q1 2026, they were the same as in Q1 2021 –, although real wages in France did not fall much during the post COVID-19 inflation surge thanks to relatively contained inflation rates and dynamic wage re‑negotiations. • In the near future, the negative real wage effects of higher inflation should be moderated by a drawdown of historically high household savings and the indexation of the minimum wage to inflation. Assuming that the disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East are sizeable but limited to a relatively short period of time, real wage growth would be -0.1% in 2026 and 0.3% in 2027. France2 

OECD EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK 2026: FRANCE © OECD 2026

Unemployment rates remain low Unemployment rate (percentage of labour force), seasonally adjusted

Note: The latest month refers to February 2026 for the United Kingdom, and June 2026 for the United States..

Source: Chapter 1 in OECD Employment Outlook 2026: Geographic Disparities in Jobs and Incomes, https://doi.org/10.1787/7e710f54-en.

People’s employment prospects are shaped by where they live Regional disparities in labour market outcomes are large across the OECD. In over half of OECD countries, employment rates across small regions vary by more than 20 p.p. These dispa rities do not simply reflect differences in who lives where, but also in the economic opportunities that regions have to offer, an d they translate directly into disparities in living standards. • In metropolitan France, regional disparities in employment rates are somewhat narr ower than in

differences in who lives where, but also in the economic opportunities that regions have to offer, an d they translate directly into disparities in living standards. • In metropolitan France, regional disparities in employment rates are somewhat narr ower than in most OECD economies: the gap between regions in the top and bottom quintiles of employment rates stands at 8.6 p.p., compared to an average of 11.4 p.p. across OECD countries where data are available (see figure below). • Still, where people live shapes their chances of finding work. In 2022, the latest year for which data are available at such granular geographical scale, the unemployment rate in the worst-performing Département, Pyrénées-Orientales, stood at 16.8%, more than twice that of the best-performing one, Cantal (6.9%). • High-value-added service jobs in France are heavily concentrated in the capital region, Ile-de-France, where they account for 32.6% of regional employment. Other metropolitan and nonmetropolitan Départements show much lower shares of such jobs. • Since the early 2010s, regional disparities in employment rates (expressed as a share of the national average) have narrowed by 10.3%, in line with most OECD countries. This reflects positive labour market developments in previously low-employment regions. • Regional labour market disparities translate into significant differences in h ousehold incomes across France. The median disposable income in the highest-income Département Paris is 1.6 times that of the lowest-income one Seine-Saint-Denis; much of this gap reflects differences in labour market conditions. 3

OECD EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK 2026: FRANCE © OECD 2026

Regional disparities in employment are large in most OECD countries Employment rates across small regions, 2024 or latest available year

Source: Chapter 2 in OECD Employment Outlook 2026: Geographic Disparities in Jobs and Incomes, https://doi.org/10.1787/7e710f54-en.

Structural transformation reshapes local labour markets unevenly

Employment rates across small regions, 2024 or latest available year

Source: Chapter 2 in OECD Employment Outlook 2026: Geographic Disparities in Jobs and Incomes, https://doi.org/10.1787/7e710f54-en.

Structural transformation reshapes local labour markets unevenly Globalisation and digital technologies continue to reshape local labour markets across OECD countries, but the effects differ substantially across regions. Areas highly exposed to import competition from lowwage countries often face persistent manufacturing job losses, while regions exposed to d igital technologies tend to experience stronger growth in non-routine and higher-skilled employ ment. • Regional exposure to import competition from low-wage countries increased substantially following China’s accession to the WTO in 2001 and the EU’s enlargement to Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) between 2004-2007. • In France, low-wage competition, in particular from CEECs, is associated with persistent declines in manufacturing employment – largely offset by job gains in other sectors (see figure below). A region in the 80th-90th percentile of regional trade exposure has lost about 270 000 more jobs in the manufacturing sector than a region with average exposure, but it has gained nearl y 500 000 more jobs in other sectors. The loss of manufacturing jobs represents one twelfth of tota l manufacturing employment in France, which is similar as for Western Europe overall, and lower than in the United States (one in seven). • Changes in the composition of regional employment across sectors and occupation s in response to structural changes are largely brought about by flows in and out of employment, while mobility between regions and sectors only plays a minor role (see figure below).4 

OECD EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK 2026: FRANCE © OECD 2026

The decline in manufacturing employment due to low wage import competition mainly results in workers moving out of work rather than flows to other industries or regions Effect of a standard-deviation increase in regional trade exposure on manufacturing employment as a share of initial manufacturing employment, decomposed into the contribution of net worker flows

The decline in manufacturing employment due to low wage import competition mainly results in workers moving out of work rather than flows to other industries or regions Effect of a standard-deviation increase in regional trade exposure on manufacturing employment as a share of initial manufacturing employment, decomposed into the contribution of net worker flows

Note: A one standard-deviation increase in regional trade exposure corresponds approximately to moving from a region with average exposure to one around the 80th to 90th percentile.

Source: Chapter 3 in OECD Employment Outlook 2026: Geographic Disparities in Jobs and Incomes,

https://doi.org/10.1787/7e710f54-en. The increase in non-manufacturing employment associated with low wage import competition tends to offset job losses in manufacturing Effect of a standard-deviation increase in regional trade exposure on non-manufacturing employment as a share of initial non-manufacturing employment, decomposed into the contribution of net worker flows

Note: A one standard-deviation increase in regional trade exposure corresponds approximately to moving from a region with average exposure to one around the 80th to 90th percentile.

Source: Chapter 3 in OECD Employment Outlook 2026: Geographic Disparities in Jobs and Incomes,

https://doi.org/10.1787/7e710f54-en. 5

OECD EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK 2026: FRANCE © OECD 2026

Non-compete clauses are widespread beyond high-skill occupations Non-compete clauses – contract terms that prevent workers from moving to a competitor or starting a competing business – and related contractual restrictions are widespread across OECD labour markets. They covered about 30% of workers in 2025, and are increasingly used beyond highly spe cialised jobs. While firms may use such clauses to protect trade secrets or investments, evidence sugg ests they can reduce job mobility, weaken wage growth, slow knowledge diffusion and undermine productivity growth. • In France, according to employers, between 19% and 27% of private-sector employees are currently bound by a non-compete agreement, close to the average of 20% to 30% across the

reduce job mobility, weaken wage growth, slow knowledge diffusion and undermine productivity growth. • In France, according to employers, between 19% and 27% of private-sector employees are currently bound by a non-compete agreement, close to the average of 20% to 30% across the OECD countries (see figure below). Firms report an upward trend, suggesting growing reliance on contractual restrictions in the French labour market. • In France as in several other OECD countries, non-compete clauses have spread into parts of the labour market where the traditional justification – protecting sensitive information or high-value investments – appears weak : between 17% and 33% of workers with no access to confidential information nonetheless declare having signed a non-compete as well as between 17% and 31% of low-pay workers. • In addition, about 40% of surveyed firms report knowledge of either no-poaching, wage-f ixing, or both occurring within their industry compared to 48% on average across the surveyed countries. Share of employees bound by non-compete clauses as reported by employers

Source: Chapter 5 in OECD Employment Outlook 2026: Geographic Disparities in Jobs and Incomes, https://doi.org/10.1787/7e710f54-en.

Contact Alexandre GEORGIEFF ( alexandre.georgieff@oecd.org) Stéphane CARCILLO ( stephane.carcillo@oecd.org)6 

OECD EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK 2026: FRANCE © OECD 2026

This work is issued under the responsibility of the SecretaryGeneral of the OECD, and does not necessarily reflect the official views of OECD Member countries. This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of

any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. Note by the Republic of Türkiye The information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relate s to the southern part of the Island. There is no single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Türkiye recognises the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable so lution is found within the context of the United Nations, Türkiye shall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”. Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European Union The Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of th e United Nations with the exception of Türkiye. The information in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus. The full book is available in English: OECD (2026), OECD Employment Outlook 2026: Geographic Disparities in Jobs and Incomes, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/7e710f54-en.

©

OECD 2026

Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. By using this work, you accept to be bound by the terms of this licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Attribution – you must cite the work. Translations – you must cite the original work, identify changes to the o riginal and add the following text: In the event of any discrepancy between the original work and the translation, only the text of original work should be considered valid. Adaptations – you must cite the original work and add the following text: This is an adaptation of an original work by the OECD. The

discrepancy between the original work and the translation, only the text of original work should be considered valid. Adaptations – you must cite the original work and add the following text: This is an adaptation of an original work by the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed in this adaptation should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its Member countries. Third-party material – the licence does not apply to third-party material in the work. If using such material, you are responsible for obtaining permission from the third party and for any claims of infringement. You must not use the OECD logo, visual identity or cover image without express permission or suggest the OECD endorses yo ur use of the work. Any dispute arising under this licence shall be settled b y arbitration in accordance with the Permanent Court of Arb itration (PCA) Arbitration Rules 2012. The seat of arbitration shall be Paris (France). The number of arbitrators shall be one.