OCDE - Seeing the capital behind trade de 2026

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SEEING THE CAPITAL BEHIND TRADE © OECD 2026

18 September 2026 Key messages • Conventional Trade in Value Added (TiVA) indicators follow value added through intermediate inputs, i.e. the products that a business purchases and consumes in the course of production, but not through the physical and intangible capital used repeatedly over time. • A new approach traces the origins of capital goods and services, including machinery, equipment, infrastructure, software, and R&D, back to the countries and industries th at produced them. • Accounting for capital raises average OECD global value chain (GVC) parti cipation by about 11 percentage points. It reveals a deeper form of international integration than is visible from trade in intermediate inputs alone. • The services content of OECD manufacturing exports is 9 percentage points higher on average once capital is included. This better reflects the contribution of software, R&D, datab ases and other knowledge-based assets to manufacturing competitiveness. • New measures of foreign capital exposure reveal hidden interdependencies across countri es through capital goods and services. The People’s Republic of China (hereafter China) stands out as the country with the lowest import exposure and a higher export exposure, illustrating its rapid technological upgrading and growing role in capital supply chains.

What’s the issue? Global production depends on more than the parts and services purchased during the current year. It also depends on assets used over many years: buildings, machines and equipme nt, but also software, databases, R&D and other intellectual property assets. A factory may export goods using imported robots, yet conventional TiVA statistics treat their contribution to value added as a domestic primary input. The upstream countries and industries that produced the robots are no longer visible. The capital-endogenised framework makes these links visible, by combining the 2025 release of the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output tables with new matrices of capital flows.

Seeing the capital behind trade: Unveiling hidden interdependencies2 

SEEING THE CAPITAL BEHIND TRADE © OECD 2026

OECD Inter-Country Input-Output tables with new matrices of capital flows.

Seeing the capital behind trade: Unveiling hidden interdependencies2 

SEEING THE CAPITAL BEHIND TRADE © OECD 2026

In practical terms, the method lets us see capital through trade : the contribution of capital to value added can be traced across borders and production stages from 2000 to 2022. The results complement conventional TiVA rather than replace it. Why is this important? Capital shapes productivity, technological upgrading and competitiveness . Making its cross-border contribution visible provides four complementary policy lenses, each answering a different question. Participation in GVCs through capital shows how much exports rely on foreign cap ital and how much domestically produced capital is used in exports of other economies. It improves the assessment of integration in international production networks. Figure 1. Capital raises measured GVC participation GVC participation in the conventional and capital-augmented model, selected economies, 2022

Note: As a percentage of gross exports. GVC: global value chain; TiVA: Trade in Value Added. The European Union is treated as a single economy, so only extra-EU flows count. Backward GVC participation is the foreign v alue added embodied in exports (including through capital goods and services in the capital-augmented model) and forward GVC participation the domestic value added used in exports of third countries.

The year 2022 is the latest year available in OECD ICIO tables (2025 edition).

Source: OECD (2026).

Figure 1 compares conventional and capital-augmented GVC participation for sev en economies (and an OECD average). Total participation combines backward GVC participation (foreign value added in exports) with forward GVC participation (domestic value added used in exports of other countri es). The darkest 3

SEEING THE CAPITAL BEHIND TRADE © OECD 2026

bars add value transmitted through capital goods and services. Capital raises participation everywhere but unevenly across countries. Capital-producing economies have a higher forward GVC p articipation while

SEEING THE CAPITAL BEHIND TRADE © OECD 2026

bars add value transmitted through capital goods and services. Capital raises participation everywhere but unevenly across countries. Capital-producing economies have a higher forward GVC p articipation while users of foreign assets show greater backward GVC participation. On average, the GVC p articipation of OECD countries is 11 percentage points higher when accounting for capital. The comparison helps policymakers distinguish current sourcing links from links related to t he provision and use of physical an d intangible assets. The capital-augmented perspective also reveals a higher services content in manufacturing exports, as it captures the role of imported software, R&D, databases and other intellectual property assets in the production of goods. Figure 2 compares the conventional services content, shown by the circle and bar marker, with the capital-augmented total, shown by each stacked bar. The two bar s egments distinguish services value added originating domestically from services value ad ded originating abroad. This includes the value added derived from services purchased as intermed iate inputs and from services intangible assets used in the production of manufacturing exports. On average for OECD economi es, the services content is 9 percentage points higher. The policy implication is that manufacturing and services competitiveness cannot be separated and that manufacturing exports depend on access to software, R&D and data. Figure 2. Manufacturing exports contain more services than we thought Capital-augmented services content of manufacturing exports, selected economies, 2022

Note: As a percentage of gross manufacturing exports. TiVA: Trade in Value Added; VA: value added. The European Union is treated as a single economy, so only extra-EU flows count. The year 2022 is the latest year available in OECD ICIO tables (2025 edition).

Source: OECD (2026).4 

SEEING THE CAPITAL BEHIND TRADE © OECD 2026

Capital changes the diagnosis of export specialisation . Figure 3 compares two normalised revealed comparative advantage (RCA) indices for Information and Communication Technology and electronics.

Source: OECD (2026).4 

SEEING THE CAPITAL BEHIND TRADE © OECD 2026

Capital changes the diagnosis of export specialisation . Figure 3 compares two normalised revealed comparative advantage (RCA) indices for Information and Communication Technology and electronics. The blue point measures specialisation using domestic value added in exports under conventional TiVA. The green point focuses only on domestic value added generated through capital inputs. The arrow joining them shows how the diagnosis changes when export performance is viewed through domestic machinery, technology and intangible assets rather than through all domestic value added. Chin a is the most specialised economy under both measures, and its advantage strengthens when the focus shifts to capital value added. However, for Chinese Taipei or Viet N am, the capital RCA is below the conventional TiVA RCA, suggesting that value added in their exports is relatively more supported by capital sourced from abroad. For policy, the comparison can help identify whether export strength rests on a dome stic capital ecosystem or on effective access to foreign assets. Figure 3. Export specialisation differs when measured through capital value added TiVA and capital value added revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index in Information and Communication Technology and electronics, 2022

Note: Normalised RCA index multiplied by 1 000, calculated as in Yu, Cai and Leung (2008 [1]). Positive values indicate above-world-average specialisation. RCA is a descriptive specialisation signal, not a causal measur e of comparative advantage. TiVA: Trade in Value Added; VA: value added. The year 2022 is the latest year available in OECD ICIO tables (2025 edition).

Source: OECD (2026).

Foreign exposure also depends on capital . Figure 4 shows the import side and export side of foreign capital exposure for manufacturing industries in OECD economies. Each stacked bar measures the share of sector output that depends directly or indirectly on capital goods and servi ces, sourced from abroad (import side) or produced domestically and used by partners abroad (export side ). The colours identify three origin/destination groups: OECD economies, China and other non-OECD economies.

of sector output that depends directly or indirectly on capital goods and servi ces, sourced from abroad (import side) or produced domestically and used by partners abroad (export side ). The colours identify three origin/destination groups: OECD economies, China and other non-OECD economies. Total exposure varies widely, depending on the size of economies, the capitalintensity of manufacturing industries and the specialisation in the production of capital goods and services. On the import side, capital originating in other OECD economies is the largest component of the capital exposure of OECD countries. But a high share is also observed for capital coming from China. The chart ca n be a starting point for 5

SEEING THE CAPITAL BEHIND TRADE © OECD 2026

resilience analysis. Policymakers can use it to identify relationshi ps that merit deeper examination, then overlay supplier concentration, technical substitutability, disruption scenari os and other relevant data to identify vulnerabilities in capital supply chains. Together, the above indicators are relevant to address a series of policy q uestions, such as the international competitiveness of economies supplying capital inputs, capitalrelated dependencies across countries and their implications for economic security and resilience, or the con tribution of capital to productivity and income in the context of industrial policy and innovation strategies. Figure 4. Foreign exposure depends on who supplies the capital Import-side and export-side foreign capital exposure in manufacturing industries, OECD countries, 2022

Note: As a percentage of manufacturing output. The European Union is treated as a single economy. The year 2022 is the latest year available in OECD ICIO tables (2025 edition).

Source: OECD (2026).

What can policymakers do? • Use both views of global production. Capital-augmented indicators reveal the c ontribution of capital goods and services to GVCs while conventional TiVA indicators reflect the contribution of intermediate inputs. • Diagnose critical bottlenecks before choosing an intervention. Combine foreign capital exposure with evidence on supplier concentration, technical substitutability and switching costs. This helps focus policy attention on capital inputs whose disruptions would be both likely and economically consequential.

of intermediate inputs. • Diagnose critical bottlenecks before choosing an intervention. Combine foreign capital exposure with evidence on supplier concentration, technical substitutability and switching costs. This helps focus policy attention on capital inputs whose disruptions would be both likely and economically consequential. • Expand the evidence base. More harmonised statistics on consumption of fixed cap ital, intangible assets, asset origin and the industries using those assets would s trengthen the indicators. Linking these data with firm-level and product-level information woul d support more precise sector diagnostics.6 

SEEING THE CAPITAL BEHIND TRADE © OECD 2026

Further information OECD (2026), "Participation in GVCs through capital goods and services: Capita l-endogenised TiVA indicators”, OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. 303, OECD Publishing, Paris. References

Yu, R., J. Cai and P. Leung (2008), “The normalized revealed comparative advantage index”, The Annals of Regional Science, Vol. 43/1, pp. 267-282, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-0080213-3. [1]

Contact Sébastien Miroudot (✉ sebastien.miroudot@oecd.org) Ricardo Chiapin Pechansky (✉ ricardo.chiapinpechansky@oecd.org) Trade and Agriculture Directorate (✉ tad.contact@oecd.org)

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© OECD 2026

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to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

© OECD 2026

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