OCDE - Vocational education and training (VET) in transition de 2026

Policy Paper Vocational education and training (VET) in transition VET policy under energy constraints2 

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VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING (VET) IN TRANSITION © OECD 2026

This paper examines how vocational education and training (VET) systems may adapt to meet the rapidly evolving skill demands of the green transition. Technological and industrial shifts reshape labour markets creating new occupations, transforming existing ones, and rendering some jobs obsolete. The analysis identifies three interconnected challenges: qualification update processes that struggle to keep pace with innovation, alongside gaps in technical, foundational, and sustainability competences across VET programmes; VET teachers who may lack familiarity with emerging technologies; and persistently low training participation among workers most exposed to structural change. Drawing on evidence from OECD countries, the paper highlights policy tools to address these challenges, spanning areas such as skills anticipation, the updating of qualifications and programmes, targeted training for VET teachers and trainers, and modular learning pathways for adult retraining, supported by personalised career guidance. Contact Małgorzata Kuczera ( Malgorzata.Kuczera@oecd.org) Abstract4 

VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING (VET) IN TRANSITION © OECD 2026

This policy paper contributes to the OECD Horizontal Project on Climate, Economic and Social Resilience and summarises the findings from the OECD Centre for Skills project on Vocational Education and Training (VET) and the Green Transition.

VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING (VET) IN TRANSITION © OECD 2026

This policy paper contributes to the OECD Horizontal Project on Climate, Economic and Social Resilience and summarises the findings from the OECD Centre for Skills project on Vocational Education and Training (VET) and the Green Transition. The paper was drafted by Małgorzata Kuczera from the OECD Centre for Skills. Within the OECD, Enrico Botta, Ricardo Espinoza, Shinyoung Jeon, El Iza Mohamedou and Mark Pearson provided val uable feedback and comments. Comments from countries helped to improve the accuracy and quality of the paper. Tara Byrne and Jennifer Cannon provided editorial support. Acknowledgements 5

VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING (VET) IN TRANSITION © OECD 2026

Table of contents Disclaimers 2 Abstract 3 Contact 3 Acknowledgements 4 Executive summary 7

The green transition: A familiar challenge, in unfamiliar form 7

What the evidence reveals 7 Where are the gaps in VET systems adaptation and how to address them? 7 1 Introduction 10 1.1. Summary of policy tools 12 1.2. What are green jobs and skills for the green transition? 13 1.3. Does vocational education and training prepare for green jobs? 14 2 Policy tools for green VET 16 2.1. Policy challenge 1: Skills anticipation for the green transition is challenging and often insufficiently integrated into VET policy 16 2.2. Policy challenge 2: Emerging green skill needs are often difficult to translate into VET qualifications 19 2.3. Policy challenge 3: Foundational and sustainability skills are not systematically included across all VET qualifications, and access to higher-level technical programmes remains uneven 24 2.4. Policy challenge 4: VET teachers and trainers lack up-to-date skills 29 2.5. Policy challenge 5: Workers in jobs most exposed to green disruption are less likely to

across all VET qualifications, and access to higher-level technical programmes remains uneven 24 2.4. Policy challenge 4: VET teachers and trainers lack up-to-date skills 29 2.5. Policy challenge 5: Workers in jobs most exposed to green disruption are less likely to participate in training needed to adapt to new requirements 32 2.6. Policy challenge 6: Individuals navigating the green transition often lack access to career guidance on green jobs and training opportunities 366 

VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING (VET) IN TRANSITION © OECD 2026

3 Conclusions 40 Annex A. Supplementary tables 41 Annex B. Background questionnaire 45 References 49 Notes 56

FIGURES Figure 1. What are green jobs? 13 Figure 2. A relatively large share of VET graduates work in jobs affected by the green transition 15 Figure 3. Obstacles preventing countries from having up to date qualifications 20 Figure 4. How is a vocational qualification in Electrical Engineering structured in Finland? 25 Figure 5. Share of 25-34-year-olds with higher VET (HVET) as the highest qualification, 2022 27 Figure 6. STEM in higher VET (HVET) 28 Figure 7. Obstacles to adapting VET programmes to the green transition 30 Figure 8. Workers with lower levels of education participate less in training 32 Figure 9. Challenges in providing units of qualifications versus full qualifications 34

TABLES Table 1. Policy levers for greener VET 12

Table A A.1. Modular VET across countries 41 Table A A.2. Sustainability skills in VET programmes 43 7

VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING (VET) IN TRANSITION © OECD 2026

The green transition: A familiar challenge, in unfamiliar form Vocational education and training (VET) have always had to change. Qualif ications go out of date; new

VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING (VET) IN TRANSITION © OECD 2026

The green transition: A familiar challenge, in unfamiliar form Vocational education and training (VET) have always had to change. Qualif ications go out of date; new occupations emerge; skill requirements shift. The institutional mechanisms for managing this – qualification reviews, employer consultation, teacher development, adult learning provision – were designed precisely to keep training aligned with labour market realities.

The green transition is not a new challenge so much as a severe stress test of those mechanisms. It is expanding some sectors and contracting others, adding new occupations, and transforming task and skill requirements across a wide range of existing jobs. The drivers include both po licies and technologies, making future development hard to predict. And at the same time, VET sys tems are also contending with digitalisation, demographic shifts, and persistent teacher shortages. This pa per explores the tools VET systems rely on to adapt to these demands. What the evidence reveals Drawing on labour force survey and job vacancy data from OECD countries, a policy questionnaire completed by 27 Member countries and subnational territories, and an in-depth study of Finland, this policy paper maps where VET systems are well placed to respond to the green transition chal lenge and where they are falling short. It demonstrates that: VET graduates are at the centre of the transition: Nearly one in four young upper-secondary VET graduates already works in an occupation transformed by green activities, a higher share than among university graduates. But around 8% work in greenhousegas-intensive jobs likely to contract, compared with just 2% of higher education graduates. No other group is simultaneously this exposed to green opportunity and this concentrated in the jobs most at risk. Where are the gaps in VET systems adaptation and how to address them? The green transition requires VET systems to adapt in three ways: i) develop and update qualifications and programmes, ii) equip teachers and trainers to deliver them, and iii) reach the current and prospective learners who would benefit from the training. This paper identifies the specific policy challenges in each of

The green transition requires VET systems to adapt in three ways: i) develop and update qualifications and programmes, ii) equip teachers and trainers to deliver them, and iii) reach the current and prospective learners who would benefit from the training. This paper identifies the specific policy challenges in each of these policy dimensions and proposes tools that can address them. Designing qualifications that keep pace with change The first dimension relates to the tools and mechanisms available to rapidly identify skills needs arising from the green transition and to adapt VET provision accordingly. The most widely reported challenge across OECD countries is that qualification update processes are too slow and complex to keep pace with green innovation. Translating an emerging skill need, such as competences in hydrogen systems or heatExecutive summary8 

VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING (VET) IN TRANSITION © OECD 2026

pump installation, into a recognised qualification can take years, by which point employer needs have often moved on. Three reforms make the biggest difference here. • The first is investing in skills anticipation that feeds directly into decision-making. Regular forecasting provides the long-run view while targeted sectoral studies capture fast-moving change. The combination of quantitative labour market data and qualitative inputs from employers and experts is consistently more influential than either alone. Crucially, forecasting is only valuable if it is institutionally connected to the development and update of VET qualificati ons, a link that many countries have yet to formalise. • The second is building faster feedback mechanisms into qualification systems. Apprenticeshipbased systems achieve this naturally, since employers shape training content direc tly. Locally adapted curricula can address emerging skills needs before national qualificatio ns are updated. Coordinated action by various stakeholders can also help adjust training provision an d develop qualifications for emerging occupations and rapidly evolving skill needs. Al -assisted qualification review offers further potential to lower the cost and time of routine revisions, though it works best as a complement to expert judgment, not a substitute for it. • The third is embedding strong foundational skills across all VET programmes and strengthening

qualifications for emerging occupations and rapidly evolving skill needs. Al -assisted qualification review offers further potential to lower the cost and time of routine revisions, though it works best as a complement to expert judgment, not a substitute for it. • The third is embedding strong foundational skills across all VET programmes and strengthening pathways to advanced learning. Technical, STEM and managerial competences – underpinned by solid foundational skills – are particularly relevant to green jobs where the green transition generates demand for new skills, and reinforcing these in mainstream VET can expand the pool of candidates for these green jobs. Sustainability competences, such as environmental awaren ess and knowledge, are cross-cutting and should be integrated into all VET qualificati ons. As green jobs increasingly require skills beyond upper-secondary level, the growth of STEM-oriented higher VET aligns well with areas of rising labour market demand. Investing in VET teachers and trainers The second dimension relates to VET teachers and trainers in companies, as VET alig ned with the green transition cannot be delivered without teachers and trainers who are themselves fam iliar with green innovations. This is the challenge countries most consistently identify as their binding constraint. Addressing it requires revisiting job entry requirements for VET teachers as well as providing targeted inservice training. • VET teachers are often recruited from industry but, over time, their technical knowledge drifts from the frontier. Part-time teaching by professionals from relevant sectors combined with s ustained professional development, structured around industry partnerships can bring the required skills into the VET teaching profession. For sustainability competences specifically, wh ich may not yet be embedded in workplace practice, a different approach is needed. This includes dedicated training enabling VET teachers and in-company trainers to understand sustainability i ssues and integrate environmental content across subjects. Reaching individuals and supporting transitions The third theme concerns current and prospective workers . Even well-designed qualifications and uptodate programmes and capable teachers cannot drive the transition if those who need training most do not participate. Addressing this challenge requires changes on two fronts.

environmental content across subjects. Reaching individuals and supporting transitions The third theme concerns current and prospective workers . Even well-designed qualifications and uptodate programmes and capable teachers cannot drive the transition if those who need training most do not participate. Addressing this challenge requires changes on two fronts. • The first is flexibility in how training is structured and recognised. Employer-led training can rapidly address emerging skills needs but may not be formally recognised within VET qu alification systems. Modular and micro-credential approaches, allowing workers to acquire sp ecific competences without completing full qualifications, are expanding across OECD countr ies – particularly in the health sector – and could potentially be applied to green occupations where 9

VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING (VET) IN TRANSITION © OECD 2026

shortages arise and where workers often need to add or update a targeted set of skills rather than retrain entirely. Their effectiveness depends on employer recognition: modules that are not valued in hiring decisions will not attract learners. Financial incentives, such as the voucher systems, can raise participation, though evidence on their sustained impact is still limited. • The second is information and guidance. Many prospective and current workers lack clear information about green job opportunities, the skills they require, and the tra ining pathways available. Career guidance services in some countries have been slow to integrate green labour market content systematically. Where they have done so, the result is a more ac cessible map of the transition for individuals trying to navigate it. Skills assessment tool s that identify transferable competences add further practical value by helping workers and career advisers see what existing skills already align with green job requirements. The paper is designed as a practical tool for VET policymakers and national experts on how to adapt their VET policies to the green transition. It is structured around the six specific VET policy challenges, explains the evidence behind each, and maps the range of policy responses countries are using , with attention to which tools work in which contexts. The broader implications reach beyond the green transition. The reforms that make VET systems more

VET policies to the green transition. It is structured around the six specific VET policy challenges, explains the evidence behind each, and maps the range of policy responses countries are using , with attention to which tools work in which contexts. The broader implications reach beyond the green transition. The reforms that make VET systems more responsive to green change are the same reforms that will make those systems more resilient to whatever structural pressures come next.10 

VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING (VET) IN TRANSITION © OECD 2026

The Earth is experiencing an intensifying climate emergency, characterised by sus tained global warming and increasingly severe impacts on the natural and human environment. In response, the international community has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit the most disruptive consequences of climate change, notably through the Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015 and entering into force in 2016 (United Nations Climate Change, 2016 [1]). Efforts to reduce carbon emissions have implications for labour markets and skill needs, as environmental policies and green investments reshape production processes and technologies. The green transition is expected to create jobs in expandi ng lowemission and green-driven activities while reducing employment in shrinking greenh ouse-gas-intensive industries (OECD, 2024 [2]). In many other sectors, employment effects are likely to be mixed, with jobs increasingly transformed rather than eliminated as greener technologies and practices are adopted. The green transition presents significant challenges for vocational education and training (VET) in terms of content, design and delivery, but it also creates opportunities. VET can ac t as a catalyst for the green transition by facilitating knowledge exchange and fostering innovation through collaboration among training providers, employers and learners. The OECD project on VET and the green transiti on aims to support countries in addressing these challenges (see Box 1 for details). This work culminates in the present policy paper that provides practical policy recommendations on how to prepare VET sys tems for the green transition, illustrated with country examples. The paper builds on earlier str ands of the project, including

countries in addressing these challenges (see Box 1 for details). This work culminates in the present policy paper that provides practical policy recommendations on how to prepare VET sys tems for the green transition, illustrated with country examples. The paper builds on earlier str ands of the project, including analyses of labour force survey and job vacancy data, a country study of Finl and, and a questionnaire circulated to countries in April 2024 (OECD, 2025[3]; OECD, 2024[4]; Kuczera, 2025[5]; OECD, 2026[6]). While some issues, such as rapidly changing labour market requirements , are particularly relevant to the green transition, countries generally do not have dedicated ‘green VET ’ policies. Instead, they rely on existing VET system mechanisms, such as processes for reviewing qualification s and updating teachers’ skills, to adapt programmes to emerging green technologies. As a result, many of the issues dis cussed in this paper, although illustrated with examples related to the green transition , have broader relevance and provide insights into how VET systems can better anticipate and respond to evolv ing skills needs more generally. Box 1. OECD project “VET and the green transition” The OECD project “VET and the green transition” aims to support countries in understanding how the green transition affects VET and how VET systems can adapt in response. It builds on existing evidence and complements it with new findings from data and policy analysis. The projec t was endorsed by the OECD’s Group of National Experts on VET 1 and aims to benefit all OECD members. Countries contributing financially to the project include: Canada, Finland and Sweden. The project also contributes to the OECD horizontal project on Climate, Economic and Social Resilience. This work has been carried out through cross-country data analysis and the collection of relevant policy examples, as well as country studies. All three funding countries contributed to the cross-country policy and data analysis, and Finland additionally undertook a country-specific study. 1 Introduction 11

VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING (VET) IN TRANSITION © OECD 2026

examples, as well as country studies. All three funding countries contributed to the cross-country policy and data analysis, and Finland additionally undertook a country-specific study. 1 Introduction 11

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Cross-country data and policy analysis The cross-country analysis drew on labour force survey and job vacancy data to address knowledge gaps on how VET aligns with the green labour market. It examined questions such as: (i) which green occupations are held by VET graduates; (ii) whether access to green jobs differs by level of VET and between VET and higher education graduates; and (iii) which qualifications and s kills are most valued by employers in green occupations. The results from the data analyses are presented in dedicated OECD working papers (Kuczera, 2025[5]; OECD, 2026[6]). Relevant country policies and practices were reviewed through desk-based research. An OECD polic y questionnaire on VET and the green transition (see Annex B), circulated to th e OECD members and accession countries in April 2024, provided further information on countries ’ VET systems and specific policies. 27 countries responded . In countries such as Belgium, Canada, and the United Kingdom , where responsibility for education and training is held by, or shared with, subnational territories, responses were provided by these authorities instead of, or in addition to, those submitted by the federal government. In these countries, responses were received from the following entities: Flan ders and Wallonia in Belgium; Manitoba, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Quebec, and the federal government of Canada in Canada; and Scotland in the United Kingdom. The questionnaire coll ected information on topics such as: (i) how countries update their VET qualifications to keep pace with changes introduced by the green transition; (ii) how the green transition is incorporated into career gu idance services; (iii) how sustainability issues are integrated into VET programmes. Country review of Finland This country study examined the challenges and opportunities the green transi tion presents for

by the green transition; (ii) how the green transition is incorporated into career gu idance services; (iii) how sustainability issues are integrated into VET programmes. Country review of Finland This country study examined the challenges and opportunities the green transi tion presents for Finland’s VET system. It provide d tailored recommendations to enhance VET's role in advancing the green transition (OECD, 2025[3]). It combined national and cross-country data and policy analysis with fieldwork, including visits and interviews with stakeholders (such as ministr ies and regional administration representatives, VET institutions, social partners and students).

1. The Group of National Experts on Vocational Education and Training (GNE on VET) was established as a subsidiary body of the Education Policy Committee in April 2007. The Group assists the Education Policy Commi ttee (EDPC) in helping Members and Partners to develop effective, efficient and evidence-based policies for Vocational Education and Training an d Adult Learning through its continuing crossnational thematic work and country studies.

The pace and direction of the green transition are closely shaped by policy o bjectives, as regulatory frameworks and financial incentives for green technologies influence both the speed of t he transition and the demand for related skills.1 In some contexts, declining political momentum for green policies has raised questions about the future trajectory of the transition and, consequently, about the extent to which education and training systems should adapt to its requirements. However, despite recent signs of slo wer progress and partial rollbacks of certain initiatives in some countries, broader climate and decarbonisation objectives remain in place across many OECD members. Furthermore, the green transition is increasingly driven not only by climate objectives but also by economic and energy-security considerations. Falling costs and growing competitiveness of clean energy technologies, alongside concerns about energy security, are accelerating electrification and investment in low-emission energy systems (IEA (International Energy Agency), 2026 [7]). Many green technologies and innovations are already well established, and others are likely to gain tracti on. For example, in 2025 the electric car market grew by 20% from 2024, exceeding 20 million sales across the globe, with Europe

innovations are already well established, and others are likely to gain tracti on. For example, in 2025 the electric car market grew by 20% from 2024, exceeding 20 million sales across the globe, with Europe experiencing the strongest growth (IEA (International Energy Agency), 2026 [8]). This suggests that while political support for the green transition may fluctuate, technologies associated with the green transition will likely continue to shape labour market needs, and VET systems should be prepared to respond.12 

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The main focus of the paper is on how VET can adapt to changing labour market conditions resulting from the green transition . While the paper discusses policies that influence VET systems, instituti ons and training providers, it does not examine in detail the specific practices and ini tiatives implemented at the institution level. Such an analysis would require a more granular approach and falls outside the scope of the current work. The remainder of this section provides a summary of policy tools that are disc ussed in more depth in the following sections, explains how green jobs and skills for the green transiti on are defined, and discusses the role of VET in supporting the transition. 1.1. Summary of policy tools VET systems are at the front line of the green transition , as the primary route into the skilled trades, technical positions, and mid-level occupations that green economies depend on most. T he central finding of this paper is also its central tension: VET graduates are disproportionately w ell placed to benefit from the green transition, yet are also disproportionately exposed to its risks. Nearly one in four young uppersecondary VET graduates already works in a green-affected occupation – a higher share than among university graduates. But around 8% work in greenhousegas-intensive jobs likely to contract, compared with 2% of higher education graduates. How well VET systems adapt will determine, to a significant degree, whether the green transition is experienced as opportunity or displacement. The policy tools documented in the next section address that challenge ac ross three interlocking

with 2% of higher education graduates. How well VET systems adapt will determine, to a significant degree, whether the green transition is experienced as opportunity or displacement. The policy tools documented in the next section address that challenge ac ross three interlocking dimensions: how qualifications are designed and kept up to date ; who delivers VET programmes and convey knowledge and skills to learners; and how individuals are supported to nav igate the transition. Together, they describe a coherent agenda for making VET systems fit for a greening econ omy. Table 1 provides a detailed list of the challenges and policy solutions discussed in this paper. Table 1. Policy levers for greener VET Policy dimension Policy challenge Policy tools Designing qualifications that keep pace with change Challenge 1 Skills anticipation for the green transition is challenging and often insufficiently integrated into VET policy • Use institutionalised and thematic skills anticipation approaches • Use a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods • Improve integration of forecasts into decision making Challenge 2 Emerging green skill needs are often difficult to translate into VET qualifications and programmes • Expand apprenticeship to keep education and training aligned with labour market needs • Support public-private partnerships to identify and integrate emerging green skills into VET qualifications and programmes