OIM - Climate Change, Displacement and Social Cohesion de 2026

CLIMATE CHANGE, DISPLACEMENT

AND SOCIAL COHESION

UNDERSTANDING RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN IDPs AND HOST COMMUNITIES IN CABO DELGADO AND MANICA, MOZAMBIQUEThe opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the publication do not imply expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning its frontiers or boundaries. IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society. As an intergovernmental organization, IOM acts with its partners in the international community to: assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration; advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants. _____________________________ Publisher: This publication was issued without formal editing by IOM.

Required citation: International Organization for Migration (IOM) (2026). Climate Change, Displacement and Social Cohesion: Understanding relationships between IDPs and Host Communities in Cabo Delgado and Manica, Mozambique. IOM, Mozambique. _____________________________

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PUB2026/031/R

International Organization for Migration Rua Joseph Kizerbo 139 Sommershield, Maputo Mozambique

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International Organization for Migration Rua Joseph Kizerbo 139 Sommershield, Maputo Mozambique T el.: +258 21 489 946 / +258 21 489 947

Website: www.iom.int

Email: iommaputo@iom.intCLIMATE CHANGE, DISPLACEMENT

AND SOCIAL COHESION

UNDERSTANDING RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN IDPs

AND HOST COMMUNITIES IN CABO DELGADO

AND MANICA, MOZAMBIQUE

JUNE 2026LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES V

ACRONYMS VI

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VII

GLOSSARY VIII

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY X

INTRODUCTION XIV

RESEARCH APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY 1

Case selection 2 Case overview 4 Case variation 8 Research methodology 11 Limitations 12

KEY FINDINGS 15

1. A lack of or limited local knowledge limits IDPs ability to navigate and respond to climate events, therefore amplifying their vulnerability. 16

2. IDPs’ perceptions of their amplified vulnerability are greater when faced with droughts than when faced with cyclones. 18

CONTENTS IV3. Host communities perceive the presence of IDPs as constraining their capacity to respond to and recover from climate-related events. 19

4. Both suddenand slow-onset climate events amplify social distance between IDPs and host communities. 21

5. Sudden-onset climate events tend to increase social cohesion within IDPs and host communities separately, but do not foster cohesion between them. 23

6. Humanitarian assistance available in receiving communities influences the nature of the IDP-host relationship. 24

7. Addressing climate shocks and stressors is critical for reducing the risk of future instability in the context of the deteriorating social relationship between IDPs and their host communities. 26

8. Left unaddressed, climate shocks and stressors have the potential to aggravate

7. Addressing climate shocks and stressors is critical for reducing the risk of future instability in the context of the deteriorating social relationship between IDPs and their host communities. 26

8. Left unaddressed, climate shocks and stressors have the potential to aggravate the risks of conflict in the context of existing insecurities. 29

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 31

REFERENCES 37

LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Figure 1: Affected provinces XII Table 1: Site information 4 Table 2. Case variation 10 Box 1: Area-Based Approach (ABA) as used by IOM 33

VACRONYMS

DTM Displacement Tracking Matrix FGD Focus Group Discussions CGIAR Consultative Group of International Agricultural Research IDP Internally Displaced Person INGD Instituto Nacional de Gestão e Redução do Risco de Desastres (National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction) IOM International Organization for Migration PEGDI Plano Estratégico de Gestão do Deslocamento Interno (Strategic Plan for the Management of Internal Displacement – PEGDI) VIACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Cyanne E. Loyle Political Science Board of Visitors Early Career Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at Pennsylvania State University and Research Professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). Giulia Caroli Researcher at the Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), part of the CGIAR. She received funding from the CGIAR Science Program on Food Frontiers and Security. This report was made possible through the collaboration between IOM, Pennsylvania State University and the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT. The team consisted of Anna Benetello (IOM Migration, Environment, Climate Change and Risk Reduction Programme Officer), Daniela Miller (IOM Peace and Development Officer), Cyanne E. Loyle and Giulia Caroli. The authors of this report and IOM would like to thank colleagues in the IOM sub-offices in Pemba and Beira for ensuring the

Migration, Environment, Climate Change and Risk Reduction Programme Officer), Daniela Miller (IOM Peace and Development Officer), Cyanne E. Loyle and Giulia Caroli. The authors of this report and IOM would like to thank colleagues in the IOM sub-offices in Pemba and Beira for ensuring the smooth data collection process. We also acknowledge the valuable inputs of the IOM programme managers whose insights helped shape and refine the study’s recommendations. We are immensely grateful to all the participants in the study for hosting us in their communities and sharing with us their invaluable knowledge and experiences. Finally, IOM would like to thank Innovation Norway, the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), the German Federal Foreign Office (GFFO), Canada and Ireland for co-funding this initiative, which contributed to deepening the understanding of community dynamics and supported the tailoring of IOM programming. VII Climate Change, Displacement and Social Cohesion

June 2026GLOSSARY

T erm Explanation Source Displacement A forced removal of a person from his or her home or country, often due to armed conflict or disasters. IOM, Glossary on Migration (2019) Climate change [A] change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to other natural climate variability that has been observed over comparable time periods. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 1992) Disaster A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction (2017) Slow onset event A gradual and progressive environmental change that unfolds over extended periods of time, such as drought, desertification,

United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction (2017) Slow onset event A gradual and progressive environmental change that unfolds over extended periods of time, such as drought, desertification, sea level rise, salinization or ecosystem degradation, which can undermine livelihoods, increase vulnerability and contribute to displacement or conflict over time. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction (2017) VIIISudden onset event A rapid and severe environmental or climate-related occurrence – such as a flood, cyclone, storm or earthquake – that overwhelms normal coping capacities, threatens lives and livelihoods, and can trigger displacement or heightened vulnerability. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction (2017) Durable solutions Durable solutions are achieved when displaced individuals and communities no longer require specific assistance or protection related to their displacement because their situation has been resolved in a sustainable and rights-based manner – through safe return, local integration or resettlement – supported by strengthened stability, self-reliance and inclusion. Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC), Framework on Durable Solutions for Internally Displaced Persons (2010) Vulnerability The conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes that increase the susceptibility of individuals, households or communities to the impacts of hazards, climate variability and change, conflict or other stresses. UNDRR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction (2017) IX Climate Change, Displacement and Social Cohesion June 2026EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As the number of internally displaced persons

communities to the impacts of hazards, climate variability and change, conflict or other stresses. UNDRR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction (2017) IX Climate Change, Displacement and Social Cohesion June 2026EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) increases due to escalating armed conflicts, climate change – including sudden onset events like floods and storms and slow onset events like droughts, desertification and sea-level rise – further worsens this trend. Sudden and slow onset events not only act as significant causes of displacement but also change the experiences of the IDPs, affect the realities of host communities, as well as shape how IDPs and their host interact in displacementaffected areas. Yet these latter dynamics are largely understudied; filling this knowledge gap is crucial to build a constructive link between humanitarian response, climate change adaptation, development and peacebuilding. In 2025, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) commissioned a study of two affected provinces to provide initial insights into the impacts of climate-related events on the relations between host and displaced communities, and to better align response strategies in contexts where displacement from armed conflict coincides with climate change risks and impacts. The study is based on focus group discussions carried out in two provinces of Mozambique as a case study: one affected by sudden-onset climate events and an ongoing armed conflict (Cabo Delgado) and the other by slow-onset events (Manica). The study aligns with IOM’s Global Humanitarian-DevelopmentPeace Nexus approach by generating evidence on the interlinkages between climate change, displacement, social cohesion and peace to inform more coherent programming. At the overall level, it is clear that an essential step in designing policy and programmes in these contexts is recognizing that the relationship between IDPs and host communities in the face of climate change is complex and shaped by multiple, interconnected factors. For host

inform more coherent programming. At the overall level, it is clear that an essential step in designing policy and programmes in these contexts is recognizing that the relationship between IDPs and host communities in the face of climate change is complex and shaped by multiple, interconnected factors. For host communities, pre-existing vulnerabilities, along with previous experiences with external aid and support, shaped their perceptions towards the IDPs. For example, in areas where resources such as water or arable land were already scarce, hosts perceived the arrival of IDPs as increasing pressure on these limited assets. In several communities, past experiences with unequal aid distribution also contributed to perceptions that IDPs were receiving preferential treatment, fueling sentiments of unfairness. For the displaced, factors related to the drivers of displacement and the duration of residence in the host community were particularly relevant in shaping their interaction with the host community. For example, IDPs who relocated due to slow-onset events often had greater resources and thus relied less on support from the host community than those IDPs who were displaced by armed conflict. Lastly, the temporal scale over which the effects of climate change occur, especially sudden-onset versus slowonset events, and the extent of a community’s exposure to that event, were found to be of influence on relations between IDPs and host communities. For example, sudden onset climate events were found to reduce opportunities for contact between IDPs and hosts and also incentives to do so. X Executive summaryThe study findings from Cabo Delgado and Manica suggested that: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 A lack of or limited local knowledge limits IDPs ability to navigate and respond to climate events, therefore amplifying their vulnerability. IDPs’ perceptions of their amplified vulnerability are greater when faced with droughts than when faced with cyclones. Host communities perceive the presence of IDPs as constraining their capacity to respond and recover from climate-related events. Both sudden and slow onset events

amplifying their vulnerability. IDPs’ perceptions of their amplified vulnerability are greater when faced with droughts than when faced with cyclones. Host communities perceive the presence of IDPs as constraining their capacity to respond and recover from climate-related events. Both sudden and slow onset events amplify social distance between IDPs and host communities. Sudden-onset climate events tend to increase social cohesion within IDP and host communities separately, but do not foster cohesion between them. Sources of humanitarian assistance available in receiving communities influences the nature of the IDP-host relationship. Addressing climate shocks and stressors is critical for reducing the risk of future instability in the context of the deteriorating social relationship between IDPs and their host communities. Left unaddressed, climate shocks and stressors have the potential to aggravate the risks of conflict in the context of existing insecurities. XI Climate Change, Displacement and Social Cohesion June 2026The study recommendations identified the need to adopt integrated, community-centred programming that links climate adaptation, peacebuilding and durable solutions, recognizing that IDP-host relations are shaped by intersecting social, environmental and conflict related factors. From this perspective, prioritizing holistic, integrated approaches would provide a broader perspective on community needs (both IDP and host communities) and support more efficient and coordinated responses in contexts characterized by humanitarian needs, climate risks, resource constraints and associated risk of tensions. Additionally, the study identified the need to strengthen the evidence base to inform tailored programming that captures the complex, multidimensional relationships between climate change, resource scarcity, existing and possible future conflict dynamics and displacement patterns. This effort will also reinforce the effective implementation of national frameworks such as the National Policy and Strategy for the Management of Internal Displacement (PEGDI). The study additionally calls for balanced investment across both sudden and slow onset climate events, ensuring that programming and financing mechanisms respond appropriately to each type of climate risk while promoting

national frameworks such as the National Policy and Strategy for the Management of Internal Displacement (PEGDI). The study additionally calls for balanced investment across both sudden and slow onset climate events, ensuring that programming and financing mechanisms respond appropriately to each type of climate risk while promoting long-term sustainable approaches that reduce vulnerability and mitigate the likelihood of future disasters. Another key recommendation is to promote community led natural resource management and joint dispute resolution mechanisms, especially in areas where access to water and land resources is central to emerging grievances. Expanding climate resilient and inclusive livelihood opportunities, including access to savings groups and diversified income sources, is also crucial to mitigate vulnerabilities. Finally, the research highlights that sudden onset climate events can foster social cohesion, by temporarily reducing intergroup differences through shared hardship. Programming can capitalize on this opportunity by facilitating joint recovery efforts and dialogue to strengthen positive interactions between IDPs and host communities.

Source: IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM).

Note: This map is for illustration purposes only. The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the International

Organization for Migration. Figure 1: Affected provinces XII Executive summaryIn times of crisis, the most impactful solutions are often the most local. At the Ngunga Resettlement Centre in Mozambique, home to families displaced by violence and later affected by Cyclone Chido, the need for basic hygiene and protection became urgent. © IOM 2025/Amanda NERO XIII1. INTRODUCTIONThe Global Report on Internal Displacement estimates that 1 per cent of the world’s population, about 82.2 million people, are internally displaced (IDMC, 2026). While conflict remains the prime driver of displacement, forcing 68.6 million people to flee their homes, climate change has increasingly aggravated the displacement trend. This includes sudden onset events like floods and storms and slow onset events like droughts, desertification and

remains the prime driver of displacement, forcing 68.6 million people to flee their homes, climate change has increasingly aggravated the displacement trend. This includes sudden onset events like floods and storms and slow onset events like droughts, desertification and sea level rise. Although global data do not systematically quantify how many displaced people settle in different types of locations, it has been repeatedly highlighted that most displaced populations do not reside in formal camps, instead settling in often urban areas or within existing host communities (UNHCR 2025, UNHCR, 2009). Whether occurring within national borders or across them, and irrespective of its underlying causes, displacement is characterized by a notable feature: within a relatively short period, it brings into contact thousands of individuals and groups, often with distinct cultural practices, traditions and values. This raises important questions about how these groups interact. The relationship between the displaced and their host communities is shaped by several factors, including attitudes towards outsiders, which can be more positive when people share the same nationality (Alisic and Kartal, 2019); specific socioeconomic characteristics of receiving areas (Schutte et al., 2021); and the effectiveness of State resettlement and integration policies (Murard, 2023). For instance, when a large influx of newcomers strains the availability of resources and livelihood opportunities for locals, conflict may arise (Golovko et al., 2024). At the same time, better integration is generally associated with higher living conditions in receiving areas (Coniglio et al., 2023). Both sudden and slow onset climatic events add a layer of complexity to the displacement picture. They have the potential to amplify existing challenges and introduce new hardships for both the displaced and host communities. Addressing this new and continuously evolving reality requires a constructive connection between humanitarian assistance, development support, climate adaptation and peacebuilding efforts. Recently, there has been increasing interest

picture. They have the potential to amplify existing challenges and introduce new hardships for both the displaced and host communities. Addressing this new and continuously evolving reality requires a constructive connection between humanitarian assistance, development support, climate adaptation and peacebuilding efforts. Recently, there has been increasing interest within the humanitarian and development actors in climate-related environmental changes and extreme weather events, and how they shape and reshape the displacement experiences of both displaced and host communities. However, there is very limited discussion and evidence regarding the effects of climate change on relations between host and displaced communities, including potential tensions that may affect security and generate new conflict. Filling this gap is crucial to reorient and target response across the whole resilience spectrum. This study was commissioned by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) to provide initial insights into the impacts of climate-related events on the relationships between displaced and host communities and to better align response strategies in contexts where displacement from armed conflict intersects with climate change risks and impacts. It is based on primary participatory research 82.2M ABOUT

PEOPLE

ARE INTERNALLY

DISPLACED

XV Climate Change, Displacement and Social Cohesion June 2026carried out by the authors in two provinces of Mozambique as a case study. Specifically, this study addresses the following research questions: (1) how slow onset and sudden onset events influence the relationship between IDPs and host communities across various contextual scenarios; and (2) how local conditions in receiving areas moderate or amplify this influence. This study enables the identification of similarities and differences in patterns and dynamics of social interaction between IDPs and host communities, which can help reorient and better target response and offer durable solutions in contexts where conflict and disaster overlap. This report is organized as follows: it begins with an overview of the research approach and methodology, including case selection, research tools and the study’s limitations. The

can help reorient and better target response and offer durable solutions in contexts where conflict and disaster overlap. This report is organized as follows: it begins with an overview of the research approach and methodology, including case selection, research tools and the study’s limitations. The next section presents the key findings, grouped across eight thematic areas, reflecting on the experiences of both IDPs and their hosts in the context of climate change impacts, as well as current changes as documented through the study in the nature of their interactions and potential future risks linked to these changes. It then concludes with several programmatic recommendations for IOM, the Government, and its partners on how best to address the complex social impacts of climate change impacts in humanitarian response. Mozambique is a coastal nation with one of the most active tropical cyclone basins in the world. Over 60 per cent of the population lives in low-lying coastal zones, constantly exposed to tropical cyclones and droughts.

© IOM 2024/Begum BASARAN

XVIXVII2. RESEARCH APPROACH AND METHODOLOGYThe study is inspired by and speaks to the broader scholarship on social responses to climate-related impacts, which suggests that the dynamics of social interaction between and within groups can transform in the context of disasters, ranging from increased social cohesion and collaboration to a greater risk of tensions and insecurities, including the potential for new conflict (Bakaki and Haer, 2023; Buhaug and Uexkull, 2021). The approach builds on this work to address social responses across host communities and IDPs to sudden and slow onsets. In line with this framework, the study is motivated by the following overarching questions: CASE SELECTION T o explore the research questions, the case of Mozambique was examined. Due to its geographic location, heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture, climate-sensitive hydropower, and high poverty rates, Mozambique is highly susceptible to climate variability and extremes.

questions: CASE SELECTION T o explore the research questions, the case of Mozambique was examined. Due to its geographic location, heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture, climate-sensitive hydropower, and high poverty rates, Mozambique is highly susceptible to climate variability and extremes. Mozambique is a coastal nation with one of the most active tropical cyclone basins in the world. Over 60 per cent of the population lives in low-lying coastal zones, constantly exposed to tropical cyclones and droughts. Since the early 2000s, the country has seen an increase in the frequency and severity of disasters, including cyclones, droughts and floods. Specifically, Mozambique currently experiences an average of 1.5 cyclones annually, with winds reaching speeds of up to 120 km/h. The devastating effects of cyclones, heavy storms and droughts have only worsened the existing humanitarian crisis driven by the armed conflict in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, which, since 2017, has seen the rise and progressive expansion of a fundamentalist Islamic movement. The conflict in northern Mozambique has to date resulted in 6,398 fatalities (ACLED, 2025) and internally displaced over a million people (IOM, 2025). Climate events are aggravating these alarming displacement trends. While conflicts in northern Mozambique remain the main driver of displacement, the Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) assessment conducted by IOM in April 2025 found that 137,851 individuals were displaced by sudden onset events such as cyclones and floods, while droughts forced 10,155 to flee their homes (ibid.). However, the increasing frequency and severity of climate events across the country imply that receiving communities are often themselves exposed to them. 1 2

HOW DO SLOW ONSET AND SUDDEN ONSET CLIMATE EVENTS

INFLUENCE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DISPLACED POPULATIONS

AND THE HOST COMMUNITY?

events across the country imply that receiving communities are often themselves exposed to them. 1 2

HOW DO SLOW ONSET AND SUDDEN ONSET CLIMATE EVENTS

INFLUENCE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DISPLACED POPULATIONS

AND THE HOST COMMUNITY?

HOW DO LOCAL CONDITIONS IN RECEIVING AREAS MODERATE OR

AMPLIFY THIS INFLUENCE?

2 Climate Change, Displacement and Social Cohesion June 2026While the northern part of the country is more vulnerable to cyclones, the southern and central regions of Mozambique face a higher risk of drought. The 2023–2024 El Niño-driven drought has been among the most severe on record, leading to below-average rainfall, widespread crop failures and water shortages. In early 2026, these same central regions were additionally hit by extensive flooding, which displaced tens of thousands of people and caused severe damage to homes, infrastructure and agricultural land (IOM DTM, 2026). In a country where 61 per cent of the population resides in rural areas and 69 per cent of the workforce depends on rainfed agriculture, sudden-onset events continue to pose significant threats to food security and livelihoods. Mozambique’s growing displacement crisis is formally acknowledged by the Government, which in recent years has taken important policy and programmatic steps to strengthen its response. Central among these efforts is the Politica e Estratégia Nacional de Gestão de Deslocados Internos (PEGDI), the national internal displacement management policy, whose Action Plan (2025–2029) was launched in April 2025. This plan seeks to translate policy into practice. It focuses on enabling voluntary return, local integration or relocation by strengthening risk mapping, supporting voluntary movement out of high-risk areas, and expanding access to coordinated services such as water, health, housing and livelihoods to better integrate displaced households into local development planning. This illustrates the Government’s increasing commitment to managing displacement in a

by strengthening risk mapping, supporting voluntary movement out of high-risk areas, and expanding access to coordinated services such as water, health, housing and livelihoods to better integrate displaced households into local development planning. This illustrates the Government’s increasing commitment to managing displacement in a way that promotes sustainable local integration. Understanding how climate-related events shape relations between IDPs and host communities is essential to inform the implementation of PEGDI, particularly in ensuring that integration efforts are conflict-sensitive and responsive to local dynamics. In January 2026, heavy flooding in Mozambique forced families to flee their homes and seek safety in temporary accommodation centres supported by local authorities. © IOM 2026/Cerci BURAK 3CASE OVERVIEW The study took place in five communities across two provinces: Cabo Delgado, in the north of Mozambique and Manica, in the central interior of the country (see Table 1). Common features of the selected research communities include the presenc