OIM - Climate Migration Projections for Armenia de 2025

Climate Migration Projections for Armenia FINAL REPORT International Organization for Migration 17 route des Morillons, P .O. Box 17, 1211 Geneva 19, Switzerland Phone.: +41 22 717 9111 • Fax: +41 22 798 6150

Email: hq@iom.int • Website: www.iom.intThe opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the publication do not imply expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning its frontiers or boundaries.

IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society. As an intergovernmental organization, IOM acts with its partners in the international community to: assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration; advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants. _____________________________ Publisher: International Organization for Migration 17 route des Morillons P.O. Box 17 1211 Geneva 19

Switzerland T el.: +41 22 717 9111

Fax: +41 22 798 6150

Email: hq@iom.int Website: www.iom.int Required citation: Columbia University Center for Integrated Earth System Information (CIESIN)(2025).

Climate Migration Projections for Armenia. International Organization for Migration (IOM), Geneva. _____________________________

ISBN 978-92-9268-976-6 (PDF)

© IOM 2025 Some rights reserved. This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0

IGO License (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO). For further specifications please see the Copyright and T erms of Use. This publication should not be used, published or redistributed for purposes primarily intended for or directed towards commercial advantage or monetary compensation, with the exception of educational purposes, e.g. to be included in textbooks.

Permissions: Requests for commercial use or further rights and licensing should be submitted to publications@ iom.int. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/legalcode

PUB2024/068/ELClimate Migration Projections for Armenia FINAL REPORT Produced by the Center for Integrated Earth System Information (CIESIN) Columbia Climate School, Columbia University Susana B. Adamo, Alexander de Sherbinin, Briar Mills and James Gibson Report teamContents List of figures, tables and maps.............................................................................. iv Glossary..................................................................................................................... vii Introduction................................................................................................................1 The Groundswell reports...........................................................................................................1 Key findings........................................................................................................................................3 Country context........................................................................................................5 Economic and development context.....................................................................................6 Population dynamics......................................................................................................................9 Migration dynamics......................................................................................................................14 Climate trends..........................................................................................................19 Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project water and crop model results for Armenia......................................................................20 Projected climate migration trends.....................................................................27 Projected spatial patterns of climate migration...............................................................29 Trends in livelihood zones.........................................................................................................33 Conclusion.................................................................................................................35 Bibliography..............................................................................................................37 Climate Migration Projections for Armenia iiiFigure 1. Delimiting the scope of the Groundswell reports.........................................................................1 Figure 2. A scenario approach to climate migration........................................................................................2 Figure 3. Steps in the modelling approach to estimate climate migration..............................................3 Figure 4. Elevation and administrative boundaries in Armenia....................................................................5 Figure 5. Precipitation and temperatures in Armenia......................................................................................6 Figure 6. Economic performance of Armenia, 2000–2022...........................................................................7 Figure 7. Armenia population size (left axis) and population

Elevation and administrative boundaries in Armenia....................................................................5 Figure 5. Precipitation and temperatures in Armenia......................................................................................6 Figure 6. Economic performance of Armenia, 2000–2022...........................................................................7 Figure 7. Armenia population size (left axis) and population growth rates (%) (right axis), 1950–2022.......................................................................................10 Figure 8. Armenia rural–urban differences in fertility rates among women aged 15–49 years, 2000–2016............................................................................................10 Figure 9. Armenia population pyramids in 2020 (upper panel) and 2050 (lower panel)...........................................................................................................................11 Figure 10. Estimated and projected urban population (% of the total population) (top) and estimated and projected average annual rate of change of the percentage urban (%) (bottom), 1950–2050........................................................................................................12 Figure 11. Armenia’s degree of urbanization, 2020..........................................................................................13 Figure 12. International net migration trends (per thousand) in Armenia, 1950–2022..........................................................................................................................14 Figure 13. Number of people affected by natural hazard-induced disasters in Armenia................................................................................................17 Figure 14. Mean temperature and precipitation projections for Armenia.............................................19 Figure 15. Projected number of internal climate migrants in Armenia under three scenarios, 2020–2050.................................................................................27 Figure 16. Projected number of climate and other internal migrants in Armenia under three scenarios, 2020–2050............................................................................28 Figure 17A. Armenia baseline population density in 2010 ..............................................................................29 Figure 17B. Armenia projected population density under the pessimistic scenario in 2050..................................................................................................................30 Figure 18A. Absolute change in population density in Armenia under the pessimistic reference scenario, 2010–2050..............................................................31 Figure 18B. Percentage change in population density in Armenia under the pessimistic reference scenario, 2010–2050..............................................................31

Figure 18A. Absolute change in population density in Armenia under the pessimistic reference scenario, 2010–2050..............................................................31 Figure 18B. Percentage change in population density in Armenia under the pessimistic reference scenario, 2010–2050..............................................................31 Figure 19. Hotspots projected to have high levels of climate in-migration and climate outmigration in Armenia, 2050..................................................................................32 Figure 20. Livelihood zones in Armenia by anthropogenic biome, 2015................................................33 Figure 21. Projected net climate migration in and out of livelihood zones in Armenia under three scenarios, 2020 and 2050....................................................................34 List of figures, tables and maps ivTable 1. Armenia agriculture sector indicators.................................................................................................8 Table 2. Demographic, socioeconomic and climate risk indicators for Armenia...............................9 Table 3. Most populous cities in Armenia (2021 estimates)....................................................................13 Table 4. Administrative registrations of internal population movements in Armenia by urban/rural distribution.............................................................................................15 Table 5. Matrix of climate, crop and water model combinations..........................................................20 Table 6. Projected number and share of internal climate migrants in Armenia under three scenarios, 2050.........................................................................................28 Map 1. Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project average index values in 2010–2050 against 1970–2010 baseline for water availability, from LPJmL/water and WaterGap, forced with the HadGEM2-ES climate model (left) and IPSL-CM5A (right) under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios................................................22 Map 2. Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project average index values in 2050–2100 against 1970–2010 baseline for water availability, from LPJmL/water and WaterGap, forced with the HadGEM2-ES climate model (left) and IPSL-CM5A (right) under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios.........................................................23

for water availability, from LPJmL/water and WaterGap, forced with the HadGEM2-ES climate model (left) and IPSL-CM5A (right) under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios.........................................................23 Map 3. Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project average index values in 2010–2050 against 1970–2010 baseline for crop production, from LPJmL/crop and WaterGap, forced with the HadGEM2-ES climate model (left) and IPSL-CM5A (right) under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios................................................................................................24 Map 4. Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project average index values in 2050–2100 against 1970–2010 baseline for crop production, from LPJmL/crop and WaterGap, forced with the HadGEM2-ES climate model (left) and IPSL-CM5A (right) under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios.............................................................................................................25 Climate Migration Projections for Armenia vGlossary Anthropogenic biome Anthropogenic biomes describe the terrestrial biosphere in its contemporary, human-altered form using global ecosystem units defined by patterns of sustained direct human interactions, for example, rainfed croplands. (Rigaud et al., 2018:viii–xi) Attractiveness Desirability of a locale based on a number of factors including but not limited to economic opportunity, transportation infrastructure, proximity to family, the presence of social amenities, environment, and intangibles such as place attachment. (Ibid.) Climate change A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (for example, using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. (Ibid.) Climate in-migration hotspot

and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. (Ibid.) Climate in-migration hotspot Climate in-migration hotspots are areas that will see increases in population in scenarios that take into account climate impacts relative to a population projection that does not take climate impacts into account. These increases can be attributed to in-migration. Areas were considered to have increases in population when at least two of the three scenarios modelled had increases in population density in the highest 10th percentile of the distribution. (Ibid.) Climate migration The movement of a person or groups of persons who, predominantly for reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment due to climate change, are obliged to leave their habitual place of residence, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, within a State or across an international border. (IOM, 2019) Climate outmigration hotspot Climate [outmigration] hotspots are areas that will see decreases in population in scenarios that take into account climate impacts relative to a population projection that does not take climate impacts into account. These decreases can be attributed to outmigration… . Areas were considered to have decreases in population when at least two of the three scenarios modelled had decreases in population density in the highest 10th percentile of the distribution. (Rigaud et al., 2018:vii–x) Climate Migration Projections for Armenia viiEnvironmental migration The movement of persons or groups of persons who, predominantly for reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are forced to leave their places of habitual residence, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move within or outside their country of origin or habitual residence. (See also: environmental mobility) (IOM, 2019) Environmental mobility Temporary or permanent mobility as a result of sudden or

or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move within or outside their country of origin or habitual residence. (See also: environmental mobility) (IOM, 2019) Environmental mobility Temporary or permanent mobility as a result of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect living conditions, either within countries or across borders. (See also: environmental migration) (Rigaud et al., 2018:vii–x) GEPIC The GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate crop model. (Ibid.) Gravity model Model used to predict the degree of interaction between two places and the degree of influence a place has on the propensity of a population in other locations to move to it. It assumes that places that are larger or spatially proximate will exert more influence on the population of a location than places that are smaller and farther away. (Ibid.) HadGEM2-ES Climate model developed by the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change in the United Kingdom. (Ibid.) Internal climate migration It refers to internal migration that can be attributed largely to the slow-onset impacts of climate change on livelihoods owing to shifts in water availability and crop productivity, or to factors such as sea level rise or storm surge. (Ibid.) IPSL-CM5A-LR Climate model developed by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Modeling Center in France. (Ibid.) LPJmL A global water and crop model designed by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research to simulate vegetation composition and distribution as well as stocks and land–atmosphere exchange flows of carbon and water, for both natural and agricultural ecosystems. (Ibid.) Migrant An umbrella term, not defined under international law, reflecting the common lay understanding of a person who moves away from his or her place of usual residence, whether within a country or across an international border, temporarily or permanently, and for a variety of reasons. The term includes a number of well-defined legal categories of people, such as migrant workers; persons whose particular types of movements

moves away from his or her place of usual residence, whether within a country or across an international border, temporarily or permanently, and for a variety of reasons. The term includes a number of well-defined legal categories of people, such as migrant workers; persons whose particular types of movements are legally defined, such as smuggled migrants; as well as those whose status or means of movement are not specifically defined under international law, such as international students. (IOM, 2019) Other migrant The term is used in reference to migrants who move largely for reasons other than climate impacts. (Rigaud et al., 2018:vii–x) viii GlossaryRepresentative concentration pathway (RCP) Trajectory of greenhouse gas concentration resulting from human activity corresponding to a specific level of radiative forcing in 2100. The low greenhouse gas concentration RCP2.6 and the high greenhouse gas concentration RCP8.5 employed in the three scenarios used in this report (i.e. pessimistic, more inclusive development and more climate friendly; see Figure 2 and Rigaud et al., 2018) imply futures in which radiative forcing of 2.6 and 8.5 watts per square meter, respectively, are achieved by the end of the century. (Ibid.) Share socioeconomic pathway (SSP) A scenario, or a plausible future world, that underpins climate change research and permits the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. SSPs can be categorized by the degree to which they represent challenges to mitigation (greenhouse gas emissions reductions) and societal adaptation to climate change. (Ibid.) Slow-onset climate change A change in climate parameters – such as temperature, precipitation, and associated impacts, such as water availability and crop production declines – that occurs over long periods of time (in contrast to rapid-onset climate hazards, such as cyclones and floods, which take place in days or weeks). (Ibid.) WaterGAP2

precipitation, and associated impacts, such as water availability and crop production declines – that occurs over long periods of time (in contrast to rapid-onset climate hazards, such as cyclones and floods, which take place in days or weeks). (Ibid.) WaterGAP2 Water Global Assessment and Prognosis (WaterGAP) version 2 global water model developed by the University of Kassel in Germany. (Ibid.) Climate Migration Projections for Armenia ixIntroduction This report provides detailed internal climate migration projection results for Armenia, presenting information on plausible future scenarios. The report aims to understand the influence of current drivers, factors and trends influencing migration, and to reflect on future drivers of climate-induced migration, to contribute to improving evidence and awareness of the nexus between migration, the environment and climate change among national stakeholders in Armenia. The report is organized as follows. It first introduces briefly the Groundswell reports and their methodology, followed by a summary of key findings for Armenia. After this, it provides an overview of the country’s context in terms of economic and development trends, population and migration dynamics, and climate trends. This is followed by the presentation of the projected internal climate migration trends, including their spatial patterns, and finally the conclusions. The Groundswell reports The Groundswell reports (Rigaud et al., 2018; Clement et al., 2021)1 aim to provide future scenarios of internal (within country) climate migration (a subset of environmental migration/ mobility) with a focus on slow-onset climate change (Figure 1). Internal environmental mobility is defined as a longer-term change of habitual place of residence where slow-onset climate change affects the drivers of movement on a continuum between more voluntary and more forced movements. Internal migration is expected to be the most common form of mobility associated with climate change (Rigaud et al., 2018:2–4). Figure 1. Delimiting the scope of the Groundswell reports Source: Rigaud et al., 2018:12. 1

and more forced movements. Internal migration is expected to be the most common form of mobility associated with climate change (Rigaud et al., 2018:2–4). Figure 1. Delimiting the scope of the Groundswell reports Source: Rigaud et al., 2018:12. 1 A collaboration between the World Bank Group, the Center for Integrated Earth System Information (CIESIN) of the Columbia Climate School and its Earth Institute, the City University of New York Institute for Demographic Research (CIDR), and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). 1 Climate Migration Projections for ArmeniaThe Groundswell reports adopt a scenario approach to climate migration (Figure 2). For this, the authors combine data sources from global future scenarios – representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for emissions and share socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for development scenarios – into three scenarios: a pessimistic scenario of high emissions (RCP 8.5) and unequal development (SSP 4) (the reference); a more inclusive development scenario (RCP8.5 and SSP 2); and a more climate-friendly scenario with lower emissions (RCP2.6 and SSP4). Data inputs include climate impacts on crop production and water availability from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), sea-level rise (in countries bordering oceans and seas) and spatial population data. Figure 2. A scenario approach to climate migration

PESSIMISTIC REFERENCE

(high emissions; unequal development)

MORE INCLUSIVE

DEVELOPMENT

(high emissions; moderate development)

MORE CLIMATE-FRIENDLY

(low emissions; unequal development) Development pathway constant Emissions pathway constant

Note:

1. The scenarios are based on combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways—SSP2 (moderate development) and SSP4 (unequal development)—and two Reprecentative Concentraion PAthways —RCP 2.6 (low emissions) and RCP 8.5 (high emissions).

Note:

1. The scenarios are based on combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways—SSP2 (moderate development) and SSP4 (unequal development)—and two Reprecentative Concentraion PAthways —RCP 2.6 (low emissions) and RCP 8.5 (high emissions).

2. Estimates of climate migrants are derived by comparing these plausible climate migration (RCP-SSP) scenarios with development only (SSP) or the “no climate impact” scenarios.

Source: Rigaud et al., 2018:xxi.

The Groundswell gravity model (developed by Bryan Jones; see Jones and de Sherbinin, 2022) estimates the number of internal climate migrants and their future locations by comparing population distributions that incorporate climate impacts with scenarios based on development trajectories. The development-only scenarios include demographic, economic, education and urbanization trends in a population gravity model that describes the attractiveness of different locales over time. Future population distributions are influenced by climate change, which reflects impacts on the water and agriculture sectors, and sea-level rise in the coastal zone (e.g. storm surge increase). This gravity model captures people who move at spatial scales of over 14 km – within a country – and at decadal temporal scales. Shorter distance or shorter-term mobility (such as seasonal or cyclical migration) is not captured (Rigaud et al., 2018:vii). Figure 3 illustrates the basic steps in the model.2 2 Annexes B and C in Clement et al. (2021) provide a detailed description of the methodology used in the Groundswell reports. A summary of the methodology is also available in de Sherbinin et al. (2021). 2 IntroductionFigure 3. Steps in the modelling approach to estimate climate migration

MODELING

INPUTS Development pathways Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)— SSP2 (moderate development) and SSP4 (unequal development). GHG emission pathways drive climate change impacts using ISIMIP water and crop model results, and sea level rise augmented by storm surge. Two Representative Concentration

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)— SSP2 (moderate development) and SSP4 (unequal development). GHG emission pathways drive climate change impacts using ISIMIP water and crop model results, and sea level rise augmented by storm surge. Two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used: RCP2.6 (low emissions) and RCP8.5 (high emissions).

PLAUSIBLE

INTERNAL

CLIMATE

MIGRATION

SCENARIOS

UP TO 2050

Pessimistic/ Reference (RCP8.5/SSP4) More inclusive development (RCP8.5/SSP2) More climate-friendly (RCP2.6/SSP4) Accounts for demographic and socioeconomic (or development) trends, geographic factors and climate impacts applied at grid cell level for modeling shifts in population distribution at country level GRAVITY MODEL Estimates of climate migrants derived by comparing grid-cell level population for each of the three “climate impact” scenarios with that of the “no climate impact” scenario (derived from the development only pathway i.e. SSP2, SSP4). The positive difference across all grid cells are aggregated to the national level (and then regional) to produce the estimated number of climate migrants under each of the three scenarios Source: Clement et al., 2021:284. Key findings • The analysis of the modelling results suggests that internal climate migration in Armenia will increase in the three scenarios by 2050, with differences in terms of magnitude: about 35,600 internal climate migrants for the pessimistic scenario, 25,400 internal climate migrants for the more inclusive development scenario and 24,400 internal climate migrants for the more climate-friendly scenario. • Climate migrants represent a rather small proportion of all Armenia’s internal migrants by 2050: around 10 per cent in the pessimistic and more inclusive development scenarios and 8 per cent in the more climate-friendly scenario. •

24,400 internal climate migrants for the more climate-friendly scenario. • Climate migrants represent a rather small proportion of all Armenia’s internal migrants by 2050: around 10 per cent in the pessimistic and more inclusive development scenarios and 8 per cent in the more climate-friendly scenario. • By 2050, internal climate in-migration hotspots emerge in some densely populated areas of Armenia, such as Yerevan, Vanadzor and Stepanavan, as well as in productive areas (i.e. rainfed agriculture and pastures) in the central regions, where water availability and crop production are projected to increase in these areas. • Internal climate outmigration hotspots by 2050 are expected along the border with Türkiye, an area of irrigated crops, the south-west of Lake Sevan (rainfed agriculture) and one densely populated area on the west, the city of Gyumri, where crop production, water availability or both are projected to decline. • Results by livelihood zone are inconclusive except for rainfed agriculture zones, where the pessimistic and more inclusive development scenarios display positive net migration by 2020. By 2050, net migration will be positive in all the scenarios for rainfed agriculture zones, and numbers will be higher. 3 Climate Migration Projections for ArmeniaCountry context Armenia is a landlocked mountainous country located in the Armenian plateau in the Caucasus region of Western Asia, sharing borders with Türkiye, Georgia, Azerbaijan and the Islamic Republic of Iran (Figure 4). Armenia’s area is 29,743 sq km, and its population was 2.98 million in 2022 (ARMSTAT, 2023). Most of the country is at high altitude (above 1000 m above sea level), and the country houses one of the largest high-altitude alpine lakes, Lake Sevan (1,279 sq km) (World Bank Group and ADB, 2021) (Figure 4). Figure 4. Elevation and administrative boundaries in Armenia

Source: Esri, 2013.

Note:

Lake Sevan (1,279 sq km) (World Bank Group and ADB, 2021) (Figure 4). Figure 4. Elevation and administrative boundaries in Armenia

Source: Esri, 2013.

Note: The maps are for illustration purposes only. The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the International Organization for Migration.

5 Climate Migration Projections for ArmeniaArmenia has a continental climate, characterized by cold winters and mild to warm summers (Figure 5), but it also displays microvariations because of the mountainous topography. The climate is also quite dry, and precipitation shows seasonal variations over the year (with maximums in May and minimums in December and January), as well as regional variations, decreasing from the north and east (where it can reach up to 1,000 mm a year) to the south and west (where it can be as low as 200 mm a year), due to the influence of the terrain and varying altitudes across the country (World Ban