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FIRE SAFETY IN DISPLACEMENT Quantifying Risk, Informing ResponseThe opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the publication do not imply expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning its frontiers or boundaries. IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society. As an intergovernmental organization, IOM acts with its partners in the international community to: assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration; advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants. This report was produced by the Global Displacement Management Unit (CCCM) under the Department of Humanitarian Response and Recovery in IOM. The authors of this report are Paul Chamberlain, Racha Doumit and Bruce Spires with contributions from Brian McDonald and Phyo Kyaw to the development of the Fire Risk Index. _____________________________ This publication was made possible through support provided by FCDO. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the FCDO.

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PUB2025/031/LFIRE SAFETY

IN DISPLACEMENT

Quantifying Risk, Informing ResponseContents Abbreviations

v Executive summary vi Introduction

vii Case study 1: CHAD – Understanding the human impact of fires 1 1.1. Living at risk: Fire vulnerability in displacement sites 2 Case study 2: NIGERIA – Quantifying the cost of fires 3 1.2. Rising heat, risking risk: Fire implications of a warming climate 5 1.3. Growing trends: Analysis of fire weather patterns 7 1.4. Long-term risk trends 9 Case study 3: NIGERIA – Correlating fire weather and fire incidents 10 1.5. Fighting fire: Current prevention and response 12 Case study 4: COX’S BAZAR – Advancing fire safety measures 14 2.1. Assessing fire risk: An operational assessment 17 2.2. Informing decisions: A comprehensive safety framework 18 2.3. Estimating risk: The structure of the fire risk index 20 2.4. Moving forward: Field-testing and validation 27 2.5. Conclusion 28 Bibliography

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17 2.2. Informing decisions: A comprehensive safety framework 18 2.3. Estimating risk: The structure of the fire risk index 20 2.4. Moving forward: Field-testing and validation 27 2.5. Conclusion 28 Bibliography

29 Section 1:

FIRE RISK IN

DISPLACEMENT

Section 2: FIRE RISK INDEX iii Fire Safety in Displacement – Quantifying Risk, Informing ResponseList of figures Figure 1. Estimated material losses incurred due to fire incidents in Nigeria (2022–2024) 3 Figure 2. Present-day global distribution of camps for refugees and internally displaced people 6 Figure 3. Danger classifications of the Fire Weather Index 7 Figure 4. Average Fire Weather Index in countries where IOM implemeted CCCM activities (2013–2023) 8 Figure 5. Days per year exceeding high risk for Fire Weather Index in the top 9 countries where IOM implements CCCM activities (1980–2023) 9 Figure 6.

Fire trends in Nigeria: Correlating fire weather, fire incidents and their impact on displaced populations

10 Figure 7. Records of fire incidents in Cox’s Bazar 14 Figure 8. Fire Risk Index Framework 18 Figure 9. Site level fire factors data flow 20 Figure 10. Fire Risk Index sub-dimensions breakdown by indicator 21 Figure 11. Mock up of results from Site Fire Susceptibility Index 23 Figure 12. Fire weather (historical) dataflow 24 Figure 13. Mean monthly Fire Weather Index in Cox’s Bazar (2016–2024) 25 Figure 14. Fire weather (forecast) product data flow 26 iv Fire Safety in Displacement – Quantifying Risk, Informing ResponseAbbreviations CCCM Camp Coordination and Camp Management DRR Disaster Risk Reduction FRI

25 Figure 14. Fire weather (forecast) product data flow 26 iv Fire Safety in Displacement – Quantifying Risk, Informing ResponseAbbreviations CCCM Camp Coordination and Camp Management DRR Disaster Risk Reduction FRI Fire Risk Index FWI Fire Weather Index GRID Global Report on Internal Displacement IDMC Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre IDP internally displaced person IOM International Organization for Migration IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NFI non-food items SFSI Site Fire Susceptibility Index v Fire Safety in Displacement – Quantifying Risk, Informing ResponseExecutive summary Fires in displacement sites are a persistent and dangerous reality for millions of people forced from their homes. Despite rising global temperatures and several high-profile incidents, fire preparedness and response remain critically under-addressed in humanitarian response. There is no global system to monitor or reduce fire risk in displacement settings, leaving communities exposed and unprepared for fire emergencies, with no way to understand causes or quantify damage. Displacement sites are often overcrowded, poorly serviced and constructed from flammable materials. These conditions make fires both more likely and more destructive. In 2024, 83.4 million people were internally displaced by conflict and disasters, often in areas increasingly prone to hotter, drier and windier weather – conditions intensified by climate change. Yet, fire-related deaths and injuries in these contexts remain largely untracked across displacement crises and prevention efforts are largely ad hoc. The consequences are devastating. Fires claim lives and destroy homes, essential items and critical services in minutes, displacing people once again and stripping them of their few remaining assets. Data from Nigeria, one of few countries that has tracked fire incidents, indicates the magnitude of the issue: over a two-year period, 221 fires resulted in the destruction of USD 10 million worth of shelters and non-food items, impacting more than 109,000 individuals. Climate change is compounding the danger. Nearly 4 million displaced people are living in areas where average decadal

221 fires resulted in the destruction of USD 10 million worth of shelters and non-food items, impacting more than 109,000 individuals. Climate change is compounding the danger. Nearly 4 million displaced people are living in areas where average decadal fire weather conditions already exceed thresholds for medium risk. Without coordinated and forward‑looking action, fire incidents will become more frequent and more severe, further endangering lives, livelihoods and assets. Although some localized solutions are developing, they are still fragmented and underfunded. Coordinated investment across sectors is essential. Displaced communities, humanitarian organizations, fire safety experts, local authorities, and donors need to collaborate to create a unified framework to proactively address fire risk. This involves investing in practical, locally owned, scalable solutions with clear, evidence-based steps to address and mitigate risks. To support these efforts, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) developed the Fire Risk Index (FRI), an analytical tool designed to quantify fire risk in displacement sites. By integrating site-level data with fire weather patterns, the FRI identifies existing risk factors within and across displacement sites, provides a baseline understanding of fire risk based on long-term historical patterns, and enables risk tracking. It assists in designing tailored prevention strategies and programs, informs resource allocation and policy action, and guides timely activities and interventions. Fire-conducive conditions are observable, quantifiable and preventable. With the right tools, partnerships and commitment, fires in displacement sites don’t have to be inevitable, they can be anticipated. vi Fire Safety in Displacement – Quantifying Risk, Informing ResponseIntroduction Fires in displacement sites are not a new or recent occurrence. They have long represented a dangerous reality for displaced populations across the world. Dramatic increases in global temperatures, the regular setting of new heat records, often accompanied by droughts and water scarcity, and rising displacement into informal sites with heightened exposure to environmental and behavioural fire ignition risks now define the operational context of much of today’s humanitarian response to displacement. Despite this, and of several high-profile fires in displacement sites, fire preparedness and response remains a critically under-studied and under-addressed issue

sites with heightened exposure to environmental and behavioural fire ignition risks now define the operational context of much of today’s humanitarian response to displacement. Despite this, and of several high-profile fires in displacement sites, fire preparedness and response remains a critically under-studied and under-addressed issue within the humanitarian sector. To date, there is yet to be a structured global approach to track and address fire risk in these settings. This has translated into the inability of humanitarian actors to understand the scale of the problem, establish proper preparedness and response capacities, and quantify its impact on displaced communities. 1 This figure is based on research conducted by the Centre of Fire Statistics of the International Association of Fire and Rescue Services the report is based on 55 countries so this estimation is extrapolated. 2 See Case study 1: Chad – Understanding the human impact of fires. 3 Higher temperatures, stronger winds and lower humidity create prime conditions for fires to develop and spread. Globally, data from the Centre of Fire Statistics of the International Association of Fire and Rescue Services indicates that over 450,000 people die or are injured by fires annually, and deaths are disproportionally higher where fire safety is poor, and response limited. Currently, there are no figures exclusively reporting on fire-related deaths  and injuries in displacement settings.1 While we are not currently able to quantify the impact of fires in displacement sites due to lack of historical tracking, those who work with displaced communities every day understand and can convey the devastating consequences fires can have. In the event of a fire, displaced communities face the risk of injury or loss of life, livelihoods and assets, which can deepen existing traumas. In the aftermath of fires, communities, having lost their belongings and homes, suffer from heightened vulnerability and can be forced into further displacement to locations2 where there are no adequate humanitarian or protection services established, and community support networks do not exist. These fires can be triggered by many factors, but to date there are no comprehensive global statistics about how many occur in displacement sites, let alone their causes. In recent years, there has been a growing recognition of the

are no adequate humanitarian or protection services established, and community support networks do not exist. These fires can be triggered by many factors, but to date there are no comprehensive global statistics about how many occur in displacement sites, let alone their causes. In recent years, there has been a growing recognition of the criticality of addressing fire risk in displacement sites following several high-profile fires in Bangladesh and Nigeria. This recognition has, in some locations, brought about a few successful small-scale preparedness and response initiatives that have resulted in localized mitigation of fire risk. However, these initiatives remain fragmented and insufficient given the increasing scale of the challenge globally. In 2024, 83.4 million people were internally displaced due to conflict and disaster (IDMC, 2025), many of them in countries highly prone to climatic conditions that help enable fire spread.3 These vulnerable communities need duty bearers and the humanitarian community to better recognize the issue of fire risk and develop stronger global frameworks that can help systematically assess and operationalize contextualized mitigation measures for the risks they face while displaced. vii Fire Safety in Displacement – Quantifying Risk, Informing Response© IOM 2024/Paul CHAMBERLAIN

SECTION 1

Fire risk in displacement Assessing the scale of exposure to fire hazardFire engulfing shelters in Tongori, Nigeria. © IOM 2024/Paul CHAMBERLAIN Case study 1: CHAD Understanding the human impact of fires Tongori Returnee Village in Eastern Chad is one of two communities where IOM has been working to resettle some of the 80,000 Chadian returnees fleeing the war in neighbouring Sudan. As part of this initiative IOM and their partners have built over 1,000 transitional shelters; health, community, sanitation and education facilities; and 2 deep boreholes to ensure a sustained supply of water. In early 2024, a series of fires raged through the site, destroying approximately 25 per cent of the available shelters, further compounding the trauma of residents who had been forced to flee conflict. Fire is often used as a weapon against marginalized and persecuted communities and its effects can extend beyond the physically obvious.

destroying approximately 25 per cent of the available shelters, further compounding the trauma of residents who had been forced to flee conflict. Fire is often used as a weapon against marginalized and persecuted communities and its effects can extend beyond the physically obvious. While no one suffered physical injuries, the fire caused increased tensions. A majority of the population became concerned and many left to return to a large informal settlement in Adre, some 25km away on the border with the Sudan, where facilities where scarce and there was little humanitarian support to those displaced from Tongori. IOM recognized the need to engage in improving fire safety and response in Tongori. Although the site was well planned by humanitarian standards, the use of highly flammable local materials, combined with informal extensions constructed by residents using these same materials, significantly compromised the effectiveness of fire breaks and increased overall fire risk. IOM had recently established a “Safety Committee” and required technical input to support their development. The role of the committee was expanded to include disseminating community fire safety messaging, monitoring fire risks and responding effectively to a fire event. The availability of water supported the deployment of pumps for large-scale firefighting, and context-specific training materials were developed, supporting their effective use. Equipment demonstrations were conducted to the community and other CCCM partners, with safety committee members actively engaged in its use, conveying a strong message of preparedness and confidence. CCCM staff from IOM supported the further development of the Safety Committee by providing training materials and enhancing its capacity to exercise the fire response system on a regular basis. The Safety Committee has seen a steady growth in numbers an increasing recognition from community members, as families have begun to return to Tongori. 1 Fire Safety in Displacement – Quantifying Risk, Informing Response1.1.

Living at risk: Fire vulnerability in displacement sites By their nature, displacement sites are inherently vulnerable locations, putting displaced populations at increased risk for multiple physical hazards. Fires represent one of these potential hazards that can affect displaced communities.

The extent to which communities are impacted by fire incidents largely depends on their specific vulnerabilities and their exposure to this hazard which stems from the environment they are seeking refuge in. The less planned

for multiple physical hazards. Fires represent one of these potential hazards that can affect displaced communities. The extent to which communities are impacted by fire incidents largely depends on their specific vulnerabilities and their exposure to this hazard which stems from the environment they are seeking refuge in. The less planned and managed a site is, the more exposed it is to fire hazards, and the more at-risk communities are of losing their lives, livelihoods and assets. When most people think of displacement sites, they envision planned, tented camps or container cities with basic site planning measures implemented prior to displacement or early enough during a crisis to reduce potential hazards – measures such as fire breaks,4 wide roads, effective drainage systems and space for emergency response infrastructure. While these planned sites do remain exposed to potential hazards, including fire, they are not the primary typology of sites that internally displaced populations (IDPs) reside in today. According to IOM’s 2024 CCCM data, only 27 per cent of the population reached with site management services are in what are characterized as “Planned” camps, while 62 per cent of the population are in sites defined as “Self-Settled” or “Informal”.5 This dataset can be broadly reflective of the nature of internal displacement globally, meaning there are over twice as many displaced people in self-settled or informal sites than in planned camps. Almost all displacement into these types of sites is caused by sudden onset disasters or the outbreak of conflict, occurring before humanitarian actors can respond effectively. This results in sites that are typically congested, unplanned, and lacking proper mitigation measures for a multitude of hazards. These informal sites can be highly susceptible to fires, with causes often un-investigated or unknowable, and ranging from accidental mishaps, such as faulty electrical wiring or cooking practices, to deliberate acts of arson borne out of community tensions. Overcrowding6 and often inadequate infrastructure can further escalate the risk, creating a combustible environment where a small spark can ignite large-scale fires that rapidly spread across large portions of the congested site. The risk is further compounded by limited resources and restricted access to services, constraining the communities’

Overcrowding6 and often inadequate infrastructure can further escalate the risk, creating a combustible environment where a small spark can ignite large-scale fires that rapidly spread across large portions of the congested site. The risk is further compounded by limited resources and restricted access to services, constraining the communities’ abilities to effectively respond to fires, and the lack of access and capacity of local fire services to respond to fires in these environments. 4 As IDPs expand their shelter space, the ‘planned’ sites can lose structure and gaps are taken up by more living space, creating further risk factors. 5 Data based on annual internal IOM CCCM coverage mapping exercise for 2024. 6 Global density figures are not systematically tracked; however some of the largest displacement sites in the world have reported as low as 3.5 sqm of living space per person.

See: Atiyeh and Gunn (2017).

2 SECTION 1: Fire Risk in Displacement – Assessing the scale of exposure to fire hazardCase study 2: NIGERIA Quantifying the cost of fires In recent years, high-profile incidents have underscored the gravity of fires in displacement sites in North-Eastern Nigeria. The CCCM Sector in Nigeria established a good practice of recording the number of fires across the sites, and their impact in terms of individuals affected and materials lost. The data shows that in total, 221 fires over a two-year period between 2022–2024 have impacted 109,186 individuals, destroying 22,472 shelters and 29,678 NFI Kits. The total estimated cost of these specific losses over the time-period is approximately USD 10,000,000,a which is likely a small portion of the overall amount taking into account personal belongings and other facilities not quantified nor replaced through shelter and non-food item distributions. Large scale fires in camps, such as those in Muna Garage and Dalori near Maiduguri, have left thousands homeless and injured, and in some cases, claimed lives. The aftermath often reveals perceived gaps in site management funding to address the issue, including inadequate preventative fire safety measures, limited access to water, and the

Large scale fires in camps, such as those in Muna Garage and Dalori near Maiduguri, have left thousands homeless and injured, and in some cases, claimed lives. The aftermath often reveals perceived gaps in site management funding to address the issue, including inadequate preventative fire safety measures, limited access to water, and the absence of dedicated fire response teams. These camps, which primarily host communities displaced by the ongoing insurgency in the north-eastern regions, particularly those displaced by the Boko Haram conflict, are characterized by overcrowded conditions, poor infrastructure and limited resources. The temporary shelters are constructed primarily with flammable materials, such as tarpaulin and grass thatch, and many of the camps experiencing high population and shelter densities. These factors, combined with open-fire cooking practices and limited fire safety measures, make the camps highly vulnerable to fire incidents. Approaches to fire safety and response within the IDP camps of north-east Nigeria have mirrored approaches globally, with a focus on the use of fire extinguishers, fire buckets and a dependence on state actors to respond effectively and timely. Despite this, there has been no tangible improvement in fire safety and response. As the costs of replacing shelters, NFI materials and infrastructure destroyed by fire puts considerable strain on ever-reducing budgets, the ability to clearly identify risk factors and target interventions is expected to lead to incremental improvements in fire response and safety – beginning with the areas deemed to be at highest risk. a Cost estimates are based on previous Shelter/NFI projects implemented by IOM in Nigeria, with an average of USD 150 per NFI kit and USD 250 per shelter constructed. Figure 1. Estimated material losses incurred due to fire incidents in Nigeria (2022–2024) 0 2 3 4 5 1 Cumulative NFI losses (Estimated in USD) Cumulative Shelter Losses (Estimated in USD) Legend 2022 Nov 2023 Jan Apr Oct 2024 Jan 5,566,250 Material losses (in millions of USD) 4,451,700 Jul Apr Oct Jul

Source: CCCM Cluster, Nigeria.

3

Cumulative Shelter Losses (Estimated in USD) Legend 2022 Nov 2023 Jan Apr Oct 2024 Jan 5,566,250 Material losses (in millions of USD) 4,451,700 Jul Apr Oct Jul

Source: CCCM Cluster, Nigeria.

3 Fire Safety in Displacement – Quantifying Risk, Informing ResponseImpact of fire incident in Coxʼs Bazar, Bangladesh. © IOM 2024/Paul CHAMBERLAIN 4 SECTION 1: Fire Risk in Displacement – Assessing the scale of exposure to fire hazard1.2. Rising heat, risking risk: Fire implications of a warming climate Climate change is also playing a significant role in exacerbating conditions that facilitate fire spread in displacement sites, with data indicating the possibility of more frequent and severe fire events. Rising global temperatures contribute to prolonged droughts, creating drier and more combustible site environments. Altered precipitation patterns reduce water availability, making fire development more likely and response more challenging. Intensified wind patterns can cause fires to spread more rapidly, significantly increasing its spread across the affected areas. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report, global temperatures are already approximately 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels, intensifying hot, dry conditions worldwide (IPCC, 2021). NASA’s Earth Observatory notes a significant rise in extreme fire-weather days (NASA, 2015) while the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports more frequent and prolonged droughts, turning vegetation into combustible fuel (NIDIS, 2025). In parallel, the World Meteorological Organization highlights increasingly erratic wind patterns, exacerbating fire spread (WMO, 2025), particularly devastating in displacement sites lacking adequate fire safety measures. IDMC further emphasizes that climate‑driven disasters, including wildfires, increasingly drive both new and repeated displacements globally (IDMC, 2025). If current trends persist, global warming could nearly double by the century’s end, significantly amplifying fire risks. Rising temperatures exponentially enhance the atmosphere’s moisture capacity, causing extreme precipitation and

including wildfires, increasingly drive both new and repeated displacements globally (IDMC, 2025). If current trends persist, global warming could nearly double by the century’s end, significantly amplifying fire risks. Rising temperatures exponentially enhance the atmosphere’s moisture capacity, causing extreme precipitation and severe flooding during wet periods. Conversely, in dry conditions, a warmer atmosphere draws moisture from plants, soil, and the environment, creating ideal conditions for fires to ignite more easily, spread faster, and burn hotter. These dramatic shifts between extreme weather events threaten increased disaster frequency, impacting more people and exacerbating vulnerabilities. Regional examples illustrate the compounding effects of climate change on fire vulnerability. In the Lake Chad Basin, NASA data reveals that advancing desertification worsens fire risks among communities already displaced by conflict. Similarly, the Sahel corridor faces intensified drought, increasing wildfire occurrences, while recurrent rainfall deficits in the Horn of Africa push pastoralists into displacement sites vulnerable to fire outbreaks. In  Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, prolonged heatwaves and limited infrastructure heighten fire hazards in Rohingya camps (The Diplomat, 2025). IDMC underscores these regional patterns, noting that climate-induced hazards like wildfires increasingly contribute to repeated displacement cycles (IDMC, 2025). Collectively, these findings underscore that, in a warming climate, displaced populations face escalating climate hazards, including fire risks. Understanding these dynamics and their impact on fire risk is paramount for the humanitarian community and first responders to develop and implement more robust and operationally driven prevention, preparedness and response strategies. 5 Fire Safety in Displacement – Quantifying Risk, Informing ResponseFigure 2. Present-day global distribution of camps for refugees and internally displaced people Source: Adapted from IPCC (2021), Sixth Assessment Report – Working Group I, Chapter 8.

Note: This map is for illustration purposes only. The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the International Organization for Migration.

6 SECTION 1: Fire Risk in Displacement – Assessing the scale of exposure to fire hazard1.3.

Growing trends: Analysis of fire weather patterns

endorsement or acceptance by the International Organization for Migration. 6 SECTION 1: Fire Risk in Displacement – Assessing the scale of exposure to fire hazard1.3.

Growing trends: Analysis of fire weather patterns The Fire Weather Index (FWI), developed by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, is a globally recognized system for quantifying fire danger based on meteorological conditions. It models the potential for fire ignition and spread using key weather parameters, including temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed.

The FWI7 is expressed as a numerical value, with higher scores indicating more favourable weather conditions for fire development and propagation. Figure 3. Danger classifications of the Fire Weather Index The system categorizes fire danger into six levels, based on the value of FWI. Very Low Low Medium High Very High Extreme Rating Value 5 11.2 21.3 38 50

Source: European Environment Agency/Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). 1.3.1. Global Trends and Current Exposure Figure 4 presents the average FWI score over the past decade (2013–2023) for all 46 countries where IOM implemented Camp Coordination and Camp Management (CCCM) activities in 2023. Among the 31 countries with availab