OIM - IOM's Post-Flood Reconstruction Intervention in Sindh, Pakistan de 2025

Examining Contributions to Resilience Across the Humanitarian–Development–Peace Nexus

IOM’s Post-Flood Reconstruction Intervention in Sindh, Pakistan

International Organization for Migration (IOM) 17 route des Morillons, P.O. Box 17, 1211 Geneva 19, Switzerland T el.: +41 22 717 9111 • Fax: +41 22 798 6150 • Email: hq@iom.int • Website: www.iom.intThe opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the report do not imply expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning its frontiers or boundaries. IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society. As an intergovernmental organization, IOM acts with its partners in the international community to: assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration; advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well‑being of migrants. This publication is a product of a collaborative effort by the Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) (The Alliance) and IOM. It was carried out with support from the CGIAR Science Program on Food Frontiers and Security and the CGIAR Science Program on Climate Action. We would like to thank all funders who supported this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund. _____________________________ Publisher: International Organization for Migration 17 route des Morillons P.O. Box 17 1211 Geneva 19

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Email: hq@iom.int Website: www.iom.int Cover photo: On the left, a brick shelter constructed with IOM support and, on the right, a traditional

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Fax: +41 22 798 6150

Email: hq@iom.int Website: www.iom.int Cover photo: On the left, a brick shelter constructed with IOM support and, on the right, a traditional mud‑and‑straw shelter with walls and roofing damaged by flooding in 2022. © Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) (The Alliance) 2025

Required citation: Khalid, S., A. Vaselli, A. Savelli, A. Craparo, A. Basel, H.O. Minoarivelo, J. T soka, H. Dao, M. Khan, E.J. Boase, M. Badar, M. Mastrorillo, G. Pacillo and P. Läderach (2025). IOM’s Post‑Flood Reconstruction Intervention in Sindh, Pakistan: Examining Contributions to Resilience across the Humanitarian– Development–Peace Nexus. International Organization for Migration (IOM), Geneva. _____________________________

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Nexus IOM’s Post‑Flood Reconstruction Intervention in Sindh, Pakistan Examining Contributions to Resilience Across the

PUB2025/039/ELExamining Contributions to Resilience Across the Humanitarian–Development–Peace Nexus IOM’s Post‑Flood Reconstruction Intervention in Sindh, Pakistan Examining Contributions to Resilience Across the Humanitarian–Development–Peace Nexus

IOM’s Post-Flood Reconstruction Intervention in Sindh, Pakistan

International Organization for Migration (IOM) 17 route des Morillons, P.O. Box 17, 1211 Geneva 19, Switzerland T el.: +41 22 717 9111 • Fax: +41 22 798 6150 • Email: hq@iom.int • Website: www.iom.int Authors Shahab Khalid,1 Alessandra Vaselli,1 Adam Savelli,1,2,3 Alessandro Craparo,1 Ashleigh Basel,1 Henintsoa Onivola Minoarivelo,1 Jonathan T soka,1 Hoa Dao,4 Muhammad Khan,5 Edward Jago Boase,6 Mohsin Badar,6 Marina Mastrorillo,1 Grazia Pacillo,1 Peter Läderach1 Affiliations 1 Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT (The Alliance) 2 Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) 3 Humboldt University of Berlin 4 Hanoi University of Science (HUS) – Vietnam National University (VNU) 5 Independent consultant 6 International Organization for Migration (IOM) Corresponding Authors Adam Savelli – a.savelli@cgiar.org Edward Jago Boase – jboase@iom.intAcknowledgements ii Acknowledgements The authors would like to express their gratitude to Deeba Pervez (IOM), Sumera Izhar (IOM), Mohammad Younis (IOM), Christopher Richter (IOM), Anna Belli (The Alliance), Victor Villa (The Alliance) and the SEAD Foundation for their support, insights and contributions throughout the development of this publication. This research was implemented by CGIAR researchers from The Alliance and was carried out with support of the CGIAR Climate Action and Food Frontiers and Security Science Programs.

Villa (The Alliance) and the SEAD Foundation for their support, insights and contributions throughout the development of this publication. This research was implemented by CGIAR researchers from The Alliance and was carried out with support of the CGIAR Climate Action and Food Frontiers and Security Science Programs. We would like to thank all funders who supported this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund: https://www.cgiar.org/funders/.IOM’s Post-Flood Reconstruction Intervention in Sindh, Pakistan: Examining Contributions to Resilience across the Humanitarian–Development–Peace Nexus iii Contents Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii List of figures and tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v Executive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii 1 . Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2 . Local context: Mirpurkhas, Sindh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2.1. Social, economic and political context ..................................... 3 2.2. Climatic context ........................................................ 5 3 . IOM’s Post‑flood Reconstruction Intervention in Mirpurkhas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

2.1. Social, economic and political context ..................................... 3 2.2. Climatic context ........................................................ 5 3 . IOM’s Post‑flood Reconstruction Intervention in Mirpurkhas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 4 . Assessment methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 4.1. Key terms ............................................................ 13 4.2. Conceptual framework ................................................. 13 4.3. Methods ............................................................. 14 4.4. Research limitations .................................................... 15 5 . Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 5.1. Projected climate hazards in Mirpurkhas, Sindh, by 2040...................... 17 5.2. Household resilience: Anticipation, withstanding, recovery and transformative adaptation ............................................................ 22 5.3. The role demographic indicators and household variables play in resilience outcomes............................................................. 28 5.4. The varied effects of improved environmental security: Protection from the elements, economic security and mental health ............................. 29 5.5. The intervention’s effects on women: Hygiene, privacy and leadership opportunities ......................................................... 33 5.6. Effects on household agency, community development and social cohesion ...... 35 6 . Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 6.1. Combine ecosystems restoration interventions with shelter programming to support small‑scale agricultural production and improved disaster risk reduction............................................................. 39

6.1. Combine ecosystems restoration interventions with shelter programming to support small‑scale agricultural production and improved disaster risk reduction............................................................. 39 6.2. Enhance the capacity of committees to support community‑led disaster risk reduction efforts....................................................... 41Contents iv 6.3. Strengthen the Community Action Planning process to deepen community participation, local ownership and policy impact............................. 42 6.4. Leverage future shelter interventions to support economic development and livelihood diversification................................................. 44 6.5. Advance cross‑sectoral research to support evidence‑based humanitarian, development and peace interventions ..................................... 46 7 . Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

Annexes: Additional method notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

Annex 1: Key concepts...................................................... 57 Annex 2: Human Security and Resilience Survey ................................. 59 Annex 3: Key informant interviews ............................................ 61 Annex 4: Development of climate hazards indices................................ 61 Annex 5: Data analysis – models and regression output........................... 63IOM’s Post-Flood Reconstruction Intervention in Sindh, Pakistan: Examining Contributions to Resilience across the Humanitarian–Development–Peace Nexus v List of figures and tables Figure 1. Conceptual framework linking climate action interventions with resilience outcomes and humanitarian–development–peace objectives within a socioecological system ................................................ 14

Examining Contributions to Resilience across the Humanitarian–Development–Peace Nexus v List of figures and tables Figure 1. Conceptual framework linking climate action interventions with resilience outcomes and humanitarian–development–peace objectives within a socioecological system ................................................ 14 Figure 2. Projected levels of drought in southern Sindh ............................. 17 Figure 3. Projected levels of heat in southern Sindh ............................... 18 Figure 4. Projected levels of floods in southern Sindh .............................. 19 Figure 5. Projected levels of compound hazards in southern Sindh ................... 20 Figure 6. Reproduced flood extents between 1 and 29 August 2022 ................. 21 Figure 7. Displaced population per district in Sindh province in Pakistan ............... 22 Figure 8. Average resilience outcomes for the control group and the treatment group, based on observed sample data, compared with the modelled effect of the intervention ......................................................... 23 Figure 9. Average ability to anticipate for the control group and the treatment group, based on observed sample data, compared with the modelled effect of the intervention ........................................................ 24 Figure 10. Average ability to withstand for the control group and the treatment group, based on observed sample data, compared with the modelled effect of the intervention ......................................................... 25 Figure 11. Average ability to recover for the control group and the treatment group, based on observed sample data, compared with the modelled effect of the intervention ......................................................... 26 Figure 12. Average ability to transformatively adapt for the control group and the treatment group, based on observed sample data, compared with the modelled effect of the intervention .............................. 27 Figure 13. Regression output table for Model 1 (base) and Model 2 (treatment interacted) to assess the effect of intervention on household resilience ................. 64 Figure 14. Regression output from Seemingly Unrelated Regression technique on Models 3 and 4 to estimate the treatment effect on all 4 submoments of

to assess the effect of intervention on household resilience ................. 64 Figure 14. Regression output from Seemingly Unrelated Regression technique on Models 3 and 4 to estimate the treatment effect on all 4 submoments of resilience, considering the correlation between them ....................... 65 Table 1. Brief overview of research methods .................................... 15 Table 2. Summary of insights for humanitarian–development–peace actors ............ 48 Table 3. Economic, social and environmental dimensions of individual Human Security Index ....................................................... 59 Table 4. Demographic variables evenly distributed across treatment and control groups ...60 Table 5. Description of key variables used in regression analysis ..................... 66IOM’s Post-Flood Reconstruction Intervention in Sindh, Pakistan: Examining Contributions to Resilience across the Humanitarian–Development–Peace Nexus vii Executive summary The CGIAR Science Program on Food Frontiers and Security’s partnership with IOM aims to identify technical entry points for strengthening climate action interventions. In 2022, compounding climate and environmental factors contributed to extreme rainfall and flooding across Pakistan, affecting 33 million people, damaging 2.1 million homes and displacing more than 7 million people across 30 districts, including 27 in Sindh. In response to flood‑related displacement and damage to homes and infrastructure, IOM initiated a pilot intervention to rebuild homes, construct pour‑flush latrines and hand‑powered water‑pumps, and, in some villages, develop additional community infrastructure. This pilot was implemented in coordination with the Government of Sindh’s Sindh People’s Housing for Flood Affectees initiative – the largest housing rehabilitation project in the world, which aims to rebuild 2.1 million homes in Pakistan. The objective of this research, based on data collected in July 2024, is to assess how IOM’s Post-Flood Reconstruction Intervention in Mirpurkhas has affected humanitarian, development and peace outcomes by contributing to the household resilience of those displaced by the 2022 floods, and how it may be able to do so more effectively. The mixed‑method research

Post-Flood Reconstruction Intervention in Mirpurkhas has affected humanitarian, development and peace outcomes by contributing to the household resilience of those displaced by the 2022 floods, and how it may be able to do so more effectively. The mixed‑method research presented here is premised on the concepts of human security – holistic well‑being comprised of economic, social and environmental security – and resilience, defined as the ability of households to anticipate, withstand, recover from and transformatively adapt in the face of climate hazards. Data collection consisted of a survey (n=459) that explored human security and subjective resilience outcomes with households that participated in the intervention (n=241) and with a control group (n=218) of those that did not (see Annex 2: Human Security and Resilience Survey for further details). The research team also spent several weeks performing field observation of the intervention and local socioecological systems. During this time, key informant interviews were conducted with the intervention household participants, community leaders, IOM staff and IOM implementing partners. Finally, a mapping of baseline (current) and projected climate hazards (by 2040) supports an understanding of how drought, extreme heat, flood and compound hazards will impact communities in the medium term, facilitating the development of recommendations geared towards medium‑long term sustainability. Key results from the research include: • Climate hazard projections indicate that heat levels will remain extreme while drought and pluvial flooding will worsen (from moderate to extreme levels and high to severe levels, respectively) in Mirpurkhas by 2040 (see Result 5.1: Projected Climate Hazards in Mirpurkhas, Sindh, by 2040). • By improving households’ reported environmental security,1 the IOM intervention enhanced households’ subjective resilience to anticipate, withstand, recover from and transformatively adapt to future storms and floods. This was achieved through the provision 1 In this report, “environmental security” and “economic security” refer to the perception of security as reported by respondents at the time of

enhanced households’ subjective resilience to anticipate, withstand, recover from and transformatively adapt to future storms and floods. This was achieved through the provision 1 In this report, “environmental security” and “economic security” refer to the perception of security as reported by respondents at the time of research through survey responses and key informant interviews (KIIs). They do not represent objective assessments of safety.Executive summary viii of durable shelters, constructed with weather‑resistant materials (see Result 5.2: Household Resilience: Anticipation, Withstanding, Recovery and Transformative Adaptation and Result 5.4: The Varied Effects of Improved Environmental Security: Protection from the Elements, Economic Security and Mental Health). • Intervention participants also indicated that the provision of durable housing enhanced economic security2 by facilitating greater freedom of movement and enabling access to improved income‑generation opportunities. Household financial resources also increased as recurring repair costs decreased (see Result 5.4: The Varied Effects of Improved Environmental Security: Protection from the Elements, Economic Security and Mental Health). • Results suggest that small households will likely require additional support to achieve equitable resilience improvements against climate hazards (see Result 5.3: The Role Demographic Indicators and Household Variables Play in Resilience Outcomes). • The intervention’s water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) components had a positive effect on women’s subjective resilience, which improved personal well‑being and empowered some through the creation of community leadership opportunities (see Result 5.5: The Intervention’s Effects on Women: Hygiene, Privacy and Leadership Opportunities). • By devolving some decision‑making power to household participants during local implementation, the intervention improved household agency, supported community‑led development and boosted social cohesion in target villages (see Result 5.6: Effects on Household Agency, Community Development and Social Cohesion). However, structural community‑level development challenges remain, such as widespread poverty; a lack of sustainable income opportunities; poor access to land, water and energy; and insecure land tenure.

development and boosted social cohesion in target villages (see Result 5.6: Effects on Household Agency, Community Development and Social Cohesion). However, structural community‑level development challenges remain, such as widespread poverty; a lack of sustainable income opportunities; poor access to land, water and energy; and insecure land tenure. Based on these results, five recommendations were developed to inform future phases of IOM’s post‑flood intervention in Mirpurkhas or similar initiatives with the aim of enhancing impact across the humanitarian, development and peace nexus through improved resilience outcomes: • Implementing ecosystem restoration interventions alongside shelter programming can enhance small‑scale agricultural production, boost livelihoods and improve disaster risk reduction (DRR). Participants highlighted several objectives that ecosystem restoration initiatives could support, including improved drainage, reduced salinity, decreased run‑off, community gardens for subsistence, tropical forages for livestock, trees for agroforestry and shade, and microcatchments for water harvesting. • Expanding the scope and local network, mobilizing financial resources and developing the capacity of community‑based organizations (e.g. Village and WASH Committees) formed during the intervention can enable them to play a pivotal role as platforms for communication, coordination, engagement and collaborative action in community‑led DRR efforts. • IOM Community Action Planning can be strengthened to further enhance community participation and foster local leadership. Key actions include allocating additional time for capacity‑building, ensuring more diverse participation by involving less educated and less 2 See footnote 1.IOM’s Post-Flood Reconstruction Intervention in Sindh, Pakistan: Examining Contributions to Resilience across the Humanitarian–Development–Peace Nexus ix influential community members, supporting community institutions to link bottom‑up development plans with formal policy and planning processes, facilitating communities’ communication with government institutions, and leveraging existing resources to drive long‑term development and peacebuilding co‑benefits alongside emergency response efforts. • Future shelter interventions can integrate economic development and livelihood diversification, which, as data suggest, would further enhance household resilience. This can

communication with government institutions, and leveraging existing resources to drive long‑term development and peacebuilding co‑benefits alongside emergency response efforts. • Future shelter interventions can integrate economic development and livelihood diversification, which, as data suggest, would further enhance household resilience. This can be achieved through the establishment of village savings and loan associations that could be leveraged for resilience‑building initiatives, including direct aid for vulnerable households, loans for small business development and funding for community infrastructure projects. Common‑pool agricultural resources can also be included in village planning, including community greenhouses, horticultural spaces and livestock initiatives, which can help support livelihood diversification and food security. In addition, vocational training can be provided to support diversified income generation and women’s livelihoods. • Finally, additional research is required to fill evidence gaps and support quantitative evaluations of the intervention’s impact and efficacy. Strategic partnerships enabling data collection before, during and after interventions can provide evidence through longitudinal studies of resilience outcomes, participatory assessments informing ecosystem restoration, analyses that quantify household‑level economic impacts, and comparative evaluations across contexts or intervention types.IOM’s Post-Flood Reconstruction Intervention in Sindh, Pakistan: Examining Contributions to Resilience across the Humanitarian–Development–Peace Nexus 1

1. Introduction This report is based on fieldwork conducted by a research team from the Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) (The Alliance) in July 2024 within the Mirpurkhas district of Sindh, in collaboration with IOM Pakistan’s Shelter and Settlements and WASH Unit. This research report is part of the CGIAR Science Program on Food Frontiers and Security, which generates research on three food systems of growing importance: fragile and conflict‑affected food systems, urban and peri‑urban food systems, and island food systems (CGIAR, 2025). These systems are highly vulnerable to shocks and crises, marked by large youth populations, isolation with limited and resource‑scarce food value chains, significant food and water insecurity, widespread malnutrition, and severe

and island food systems (CGIAR, 2025). These systems are highly vulnerable to shocks and crises, marked by large youth populations, isolation with limited and resource‑scarce food value chains, significant food and water insecurity, widespread malnutrition, and severe environmental threats and degradation. There is weak governance across these systems, and new solutions and investments must be catalysed to support the world’s most vulnerable communities. Literature on the interconnectedness of climate, conflict and mobility outcomes highlights how compounding risks can lead to diverse forms of insecurity (Savelli, Schapendonk et al., 2023). However, by examining how these risks are filtered through local social, political, economic and environmental factors, opportunities emerge for communities and humanitarian, development and peace (HDP) actors to bolster well‑being, development, and peace in fragile and conflict‑affected settings. IOM has been operating in Pakistan since 1981, partnering with government agencies, United Nations bodies, and civil society to address migration, humanitarian and development challenges. IOM plays a central role in disaster coordination, co‑leading the Shelter and Non‑food Items (S‑NFI) sector with the National Disaster Management Authority. Guided by the Institutional Strategy on Migration, Environment, and Climate Change (2021–2030), IOM implements a comprehensive approach, anchored in human rights norms and principles and relevant across the HDP nexus, to address challenges in the contexts of climate change, environmental degradation and natural hazards. IOM supports long‑term resilience‑building by addressing vulnerabilities caused by conflict, climate change, and displacement while supporting effective migration governance and promoting social cohesion in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In the summer of 2022, compounding climatic and environmental factors in Pakistan contributed to extreme precipitation and flooding, affecting 33 million people, damaging 2.1 million homes and displacing over 7 million people across more than 30 districts, including 27 in Sindh (IOM, 2023b). Described by the Prime Minister as “the worst in the history of Pakistan,” the floods

to extreme precipitation and flooding, affecting 33 million people, damaging 2.1 million homes and displacing over 7 million people across more than 30 districts, including 27 in Sindh (IOM, 2023b). Described by the Prime Minister as “the worst in the history of Pakistan,” the floods were driven by extreme, prolonged precipitation in July–August in southern Punjab, Balochistan and Sindh, driven by La Niña‑induced strong anomalous easterly winds over the northern Indian subcontinent, intense southerly winds from the Arabian Sea and a heatwave affecting large swathes of Europe (Hong et al., 2023). The extreme heatwave in March–May led to unusually warm temperatures in north‑western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit‑Baltistan, driving rapid glacial melt and glacial lake outburst floods that significantly increased streamflow in upper tributaries of the Indus River basin (Nanditha et al., 2023) and decreased the Indus’ overall capacity to absorb surface runoff from rainfall. The heavy, prolonged rainfall from July to August in the flood plains of eastern Balochistan, southern Punjab and Sindh led to unprecedented levels of inundation, with floodwaters covering approximately one third of Pakistan’s landmass. While precipitation and flooding are common along the Indus Basin, climate change has1. Introduction 2 exacerbated the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, leading to increasingly common “mega floods” such as those in 2010 and 2022 (ibid.). These changes underscore the heightened vulnerability of communities throughout Pakistan to the acute risks posed by compound climate‑related hazards. While many affected households received humanitarian support in the form of non‑food items and basic shelter, at the end of 2023 1.3 million Pakistanis remained displaced by the floods, with only two thirds of internally displaced persons having returned to their homes (IOM, 2023b). In response to flood‑related displacement and damage to homes and infrastructure, IOM implemented a pilot intervention targeting shelter, water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH)

with only two thirds of internally displaced persons having returned to their homes (IOM, 2023b). In response to flood‑related displacement and damage to homes and infrastructure, IOM implemented a pilot intervention targeting shelter, water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) and community infrastructure in southern Sindh’s Mirpurkhas District. The intervention aimed to rebuild houses, construct new WASH infrastructure (pour‑flush latrines3 and hand‑powered water pumps4) and develop community infrastructure in 44 villages. The support package for each village varied depending on funding availability, community