OIM - Migration, Environment and Climate Change in Yemen de 2025

MIGRATION, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN YEMENThe opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the publication do not imply expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning its frontiers or boundaries. IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society. As an intergovernmental organization, IOM acts with its partners in the international community to: assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration; advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants. _____________________________ This report was produced with funding support from the Migration Resource Allocation Committee (MiRAC).

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Cover photo: As part of the ongoing flood response efforts in West Coast, IOM is empowering internally displaced persons (IDPs) through cash-for-work initiatives. Here, community members actively participate in improving their environment, showcasing resilience and collaboration in the face of adversity.

© IOM 2024/Majed MOHAMMED Required citation: McFee, E. (2025). Migration, Environment and Climate Change in Yemen. International Organization for Migration (IOM), Cairo.

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PUB2025/006/LCountry Report

MIGRATION, ENVIRONMENT

AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN YEMENACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This Country Report was prepared by Erin K. McFee, PhD, as a consultant for the International Organization for Migration (IOM) within the framework of the IOM project “Strengthening Migration, Environment, Climate Change, and Risk Reduction Programme Portfolio in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region”, which was funded by IOM Migration Resource Allocation Committee (MiRAC). Hani Ahmed, PhD, conducted the data collection activities. Ms. Emma van den Aakster was a contributing researcher. The author is grateful for the insights and support from the IOM Yemen Country Mission and the IOM Regional Office for Middle East and North Africa (MENA), who supported data collection and reviewed and provided invaluable feedback on the study. As part of the ongoing flood response efforts in West Coast, IOM is empowering internally displaced persons (IDPs) through cash-for-work initiatives. Here, community members actively participate in improving their environment, showcasing resilience and collaboration in the face

of adversity. © IOM 2024/Majed MOHAMMEDCONTENTS Acknowledgements................................................................................................................................................................. iii List of figures and tables........................................................................................................................................................vi Acronyms....................................................................................................................................................................................vii Glossary........................................................................................................................................................................................ix Executive summary..................................................................................................................................................................xi Introduction.............................................................................................................................................................................xvii

1. Background...........................................................................................................................................................................1

2. Key environmental, climate change, and environmental degradation challenges and community responses in Yemen........................................................................................................................4

2.1. Extreme weather events....................................................................................................................................4

2.1.1. (Flash) floods............................................................................................................................................4

2.1.2. Cyclones.....................................................................................................................................................7

2.1.3. Hurricanes and tropical storms.......................................................................................................8

2.1.4. Sand and dust storms...........................................................................................................................8

2.1.5. Wildfires.....................................................................................................................................................9

2.2. Slow-onset processes and environmental degradation.........................................................................9

2.2.1. Drought, water scarcity and groundwater depletion.............................................................9

2.2.2. Changing rainfall patterns................................................................................................................13

2.2.3. Rising temperatures...........................................................................................................................14

2.2.4. Soil erosion, declining soil fertility and loss of vegetation cover....................................17

2.2.5. Salinization ............................................................................................................................................18

2.2.6. Deforestation, desertification and sand encroachment.....................................................19

2.2.7. Pollution and waste............................................................................................................................19

2.2.8. Sea-level rise .........................................................................................................................................20

2.2.9. Coastal erosion....................................................................................................................................21

2.2.10. Biodiversity loss...................................................................................................................................21 iv MIGRATION, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN YEMEN3. Migration, environmental degradation and climate change dynamics....................................................23

2.2.9. Coastal erosion....................................................................................................................................21

2.2.10. Biodiversity loss...................................................................................................................................21 iv MIGRATION, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN YEMEN3. Migration, environmental degradation and climate change dynamics....................................................23

3.1. Drivers of migration to Yemen.....................................................................................................................23

3.1.1. Migration journeys and settlement..............................................................................................23

3.2. Drivers of migration through and out of Yemen..................................................................................24

3.3. Drivers of migration and displacement within Yemen........................................................................26

3.3.1. Environmental drivers.......................................................................................................................26

3.3.2. Conflict and insecurity......................................................................................................................28

3.3.3. Economic factors.................................................................................................................................29

3.3.4. Temporary migration.........................................................................................................................29

3.3.5. Multiple displacements......................................................................................................................30

3.3.6. Migration journeys..............................................................................................................................30

3.3.7. Trapped populations among internal migrants and displaced persons........................30

4. Cross-sector challenges and responses...............................................................................................................32

4.1. Public sector.........................................................................................................................................................32

4.2. Public health and human security................................................................................................................34

4.3. Agriculture, livestock, and land ownership and use.............................................................................36

4.4. Food insecurity....................................................................................................................................................37

4.5. Housing insecurity and inplanned irbanization.......................................................................................39

4.5.1. Unplanned urbanization...................................................................................................................40

5. Resources and vulnerabilities....................................................................................................................................41

5.1. Gender implications...........................................................................................................................................41

5.2. Life-cycle implications.......................................................................................................................................43

5.2.1. Children...................................................................................................................................................43

5.2.2. Aging populations................................................................................................................................44

5.1. Gender implications...........................................................................................................................................41

5.2. Life-cycle implications.......................................................................................................................................43

5.2.1. Children...................................................................................................................................................43

5.2.2. Aging populations................................................................................................................................44

5.3. Socioeconomic precarity.................................................................................................................................45

5.3.1. The Muhamasheen.............................................................................................................................46

6. Recommendations..........................................................................................................................................................47

Appendix....................................................................................................................................................................................52 References.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................54 v

MIGRATION, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN YEMENLIST OF FIGURES

AND TABLES

Figure 1. Governorates of Yemen...............................................................................................................................1 Figure 2. The rainfall and climatic zones of Yemen..............................................................................................2 Figure 3. Western Yemen with clusters of self-similar patterns groundwater changes....................11 Figure 4. Groundwater changes in self-similar areas of Western Yemen, 2002–2020......................12 Figure 5. Where people will live with dangerous heat in 2030...................................................................15

Table 1. Health implications of slow-onset processes and extreme weather events

in Yemen by type, as identified by country study participants.................................................35 Table 2. Breakdown of focus group participants by gender........................................................................53 Table 3. Breakdown of key informants by sector............................................................................................53 Table 4. Breakdown of key informants by gender...........................................................................................53 vi

MIGRATION, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN YEMENACRONYMS

CIA Central Intelligence Agency CIVIC Center for Civilians in Conflict CSO civil society organization DCAF Geneva Center for Security Sector Governance FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the

United Nations FGD focus group discussion FSIN Food Security Information Network GDP gross domestic product GIS Geographic Information System GSC Global Shelter Cluster IAHE Inter-Agency Humanitarian Evaluation ICRC International Committee of the Red Cross IDP internally displaced Person IHD Integral Human Development IOM International Organization for Migration IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRW Islamic Relief Worldwide ISIL Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant KII key informant Interview MECC Migration, Environment, and Climate Change MENA Middle East and North Africa NACRA National Committee for Refugee Affairs NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration vii

MIGRATION, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN YEMENND-GAIN

Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative NDC National Dialogue Conference NFI non-food Item NGO non-governmental Organization NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NUPI Norwegian Institute of International Affairs OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNESC United Nations Economic and Social Council

UNFCCC

United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNY United Nations Yemen USAID United States Agency for International Development WASH water, sanitation and hygiene WFP World Food Programme viii MIGRATION, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN YEMENGLOSSARY Climate change “[A] change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to other natural climate variability that has been observed over comparable time periods” (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1992, Article 1). Cross-border migration A process of movement of persons across international borders

(IOM, 2019, p. 23).

Desertification [L]and degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas

Convention on Climate Change, 1992, Article 1). Cross-border migration A process of movement of persons across international borders

(IOM, 2019, p. 23).

Desertification [L]and degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities (UNCCD, 1994, Article 1). Disaster “A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources”

(UNISDR, 2009).

Economic migrants The movement of a person or a group of persons, either across an international border, or within a State motivated solely or primarily by economic opportunities. (IOM, 2019). Environmental degradation “The reduction of the capacity of the environment to meet social and ecological objectives and needs. […] Degradation of the environment can alter the frequency and intensity of natural hazards and increase the vulnerability of communities. The types of human-induced degradation are varied and include land misuse, soil erosion and loss, desertification, wildland fires, loss of biodiversity, deforestation, mangrove destruction, land, water and air pollution, climate change, sea level rise, and ozone depletion” (UNISDR, 2009). Environmental migrant “Persons or groups of persons who, predominantly for reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad” (IOM, 2019, p. 65). ix MIGRATION, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN YEMENExtreme weather event An event that is rare within its statistical reference distribution at a particular place. Definitions of rare vary, but an extreme weather event would normally be as rare as or rarer than the 10th or

ix MIGRATION, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN YEMENExtreme weather event An event that is rare within its statistical reference distribution at a particular place. Definitions of rare vary, but an extreme weather event would normally be as rare as or rarer than the 10th or 90th percentile. By definition, the characteristics of what is called extreme weather may vary from place to place. An extreme climate event is an average of a number of weather events over a certain period of time, an average which is itself extreme (e.g. rainfall over a season)” (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2018). Human security Concerns the right of people to live in freedom and dignity, free from poverty and despair, and promotes the protection of their physical safety, economic and social well-being, and human rights. It includes the right of all individuals, vulnerable people in particular, to live free from fear and want, with an equal opportunity to enjoy all their rights and fully develop their human potential. Adapted from United Nations General Assembly, Follow-up to Paragraph 143 on Human Security of the 2005 World Summit Outcome (2012) UN Doc. A/RES/66/290, para. 3(a). Internally displaced persons Persons or groups of persons who have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situations of generalized violence, violations of human rights or natural or human-made disasters, and who have not crossed an internationally recognized State border (UNESC, 1998). Internal migration The movement of people within a State involving the establishment of a new temporary or permanent residence (IOM, 2019). Livelihood At the individual and household levels, vulnerability and resilience depend largely on people’s livelihoods. Livelihoods comprise the capabilities, material and social assets, and activities required to sustain a means of living (Chambers and Conway, 1991). Livelihood

Livelihood At the individual and household levels, vulnerability and resilience depend largely on people’s livelihoods. Livelihoods comprise the capabilities, material and social assets, and activities required to sustain a means of living (Chambers and Conway, 1991). Livelihood options depend on available [human, social, and financial] capital and on the [socioeconomic, natural] and political context in which people live. They determine how people occupy and use their environment; what options they are faced with in the face of hazards; what impacts they suffer from such hazards; and how effectively they recover (IOM, 2019, p. 23). Salinization The accumulation of salts in soils (IPCC, 2018, p. 993). Slow-onset event An event evolves gradually from incremental changes occurring over many years or from an increased frequency or intensity of recurring events. Such events include sea level rise, increasing temperatures, ocean acidification, glacial retreat and related impacts, salinization, land and forest degradation, loss of biodiversity, and desertification (UNFCCC, 2011). x MIGRATION, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN YEMENEXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, characterized by its aridity, water scarcity, rapid urbanization, and vulnerability to climate change-induced natural hazards, faces significant challenges that directly impact human mobility. Existing conflicts further complicate these conditions. Within this context, the International Organization for Migration’s (IOM) Regional Office for MENA in coordination with IOM Yemen Country Mission undertook desk and original research to support the development of this empirically informed Migration, Environment, Climate Change (MECC) country report on Yemen to inform policy discussions and interventions. This report examines how climate change, environmental changes, and human mobility are interconnected. It responds to the need for policies based on solid evidence, backed by the IOM’s dedication to the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration (Global Compact for Migration) and the United Nations Secretary‑General’s Action Agenda on Internal Displacement.

climate change, environmental changes, and human mobility are interconnected. It responds to the need for policies based on solid evidence, backed by the IOM’s dedication to the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration (Global Compact for Migration) and the United Nations Secretary‑General’s Action Agenda on Internal Displacement. To deepen the empirical data available on these dynamics and their intersection with human mobility, this study leveraged a qualitative mixed-methods approach, integrating 30 key informant interviews (KIIs), focusing on personal, organizational and community-level experiences related to climate adaptation, with findings from 10 focus group discussions (FGDs). The latter explored collective decision-making processes regarding mobility, influenced by environmental changes and other insecurities, with groups representing diverse demographics, including age, sex, ethnicity and livelihood. Collaboratively developed semi-structured protocols guided the data collection process to gather insights on existing initiatives, individual and institutional responses, and programming needs related to environmental and climate challenges as they intersect with human mobility and conflict dynamics. Analysis used inductive thematic coding to ensure the integrity of the responses, revealing patterns that underscore the critical climate events, successful adaptation programmes, and areas needing enhancement. Limitations include constraints due to the underrepresentation of Muhamasheen and transiting migrants. Additionally, the qualitative approach – focusing on fewer data points and greater depth – may limit the generalizability of insights across diverse groups and contexts within the country. Key findings The following represent the effects of extreme weather events: 1. (Flash) floods: Floods are increasing in severity and frequency, while factors like illegal logging, groundwater depletion, and unplanned urbanization accelerate and amplify vulnerabilities. The heavy rainfall in 2020 led to significant flooding, causing widespread socioeconomic and humanitarian impacts, including infrastructure damage, health risks, crop and livestock losses, and displacement, all further complicated by ongoing conflict and governance issues.

2. Cyclones: Climate change has increased cyclone activity in Yemen, leading to significant damage and flooding, particularly in coastal areas. Cyclones Chapala in 2015 and Tej in 2023

and displacement, all further complicated by ongoing conflict and governance issues.

2. Cyclones: Climate change has increased cyclone activity in Yemen, leading to significant damage and flooding, particularly in coastal areas. Cyclones Chapala in 2015 and Tej in 2023 collectively displaced thousands, caused numerous injuries and fatalities, and extensively damaged infrastructure, homes and key economic sectors like agriculture and fisheries. xi MIGRATION, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN YEMEN3. Hurricanes and tropical storms: Tropical storms and hurricanes cause flash floods and soil erosion, leading to economic damage, crop loss, and severe impacts on infrastructure and livelihoods. Experts warn of heightened hurricane risks and their adverse effects on security and the fishing industry in the coming years.

4. Sand and dust storms: Yemen’s frequent sand and dust storms not only raise health concerns due to dusty air exposure but also trigger environmental and agricultural degradation through sudden increases in river flows and flooding. They also significantly impact the fragile infrastructure of IDP camps, complicating daily life and mobility for displaced populations.

5. Wildfires: Yemen’s western governates have a high wildfire risk. Fire, in general, poses a critical threat in IDP camps, where rising temperatures, flammable materials and close quarters significantly heighten the danger of rapid fire spread and catastrophic damage.

Study respondents named several adaptive responses to extreme weather events, including makeshift shelter repairs, improvised water and heating solutions, and reliance on community support and temporary jobs. However, these measures are often insufficient and unsustainable against the broader backdrop of broader threats to human security, including health-care access issues and persistent food insecurity. Respondents also addressed slow-onset processes and their impact on security and mobility:

1. Drought, water scarcity and groundwater depletion: Yemen’s conflict and environmental challenges have led to sharp declines in groundwater levels through the interconnected mechanisms of water infrastructure destruction and disruption, increased groundwater extraction, and population displacement. Reduced rainfall and the cultivation of waterintensive crops like qat, among other factors, exacerbate drought and other sources of water scarcity.

challenges have led to sharp declines in groundwater levels through the interconnected mechanisms of water infrastructure destruction and disruption, increased groundwater extraction, and population displacement. Reduced rainfall and the cultivation of waterintensive crops like qat, among other factors, exacerbate drought and other sources of water scarcity.

2. Changing rainfall patterns: The traditional rainy season has become unpredictable, leading to flooding, locust outbreaks, disruptions to agriculture and livestock, and subsequent shifts in farming practices and livestock management. However, some previously uncultivable desert areas have become fertile, attracting agricultural and nomadic communities for resettlement.

3. Rising temperatures: Yemen is undergoing significant long-term warming trends, exacerbating water scarcity by increasing evaporation, disrupting agriculture through changing growing seasons, and damaging biodiversity through impacts like coral bleaching and locust outbreaks.

The rising temperatures affect daily life, livelihood decisions and cultural practices, with impacts  ranging from health risks in IDP camps to altered routines and the shifting of traditional events like weddings to cooler times or venues due to heat and power constraints.

4. Soil erosion, declining soil fertility and loss of vegetation cover: Soil fertility i