OIM - Standardized Guidelines on Conflict Analysis

STANDARDIZED

GUIDANCE CONFLICT ANALYSIS ONThe opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the publication do not imply expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning its frontiers or boundaries. IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society. As an intergovernmental organization, IOM acts with its partners in the international community to: assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration; advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants. _____________________________ Publisher: International Organization for Migration 17 route des Morillons P.O. Box 17 1211 Geneva 19

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GUIDANCE

CONFLICT ANALYSIS ONACkNOWLEDGEMENTS ii

STANDARDIZED GUIDANCE ON CONFLICT ANALYSIS ACkNOWLEDGEMENTS This guidance was prepared by the Peace and Recovery Division within the Department of Humanitarian Response and Recovery of IOM. Specific acknowledgements are made to katie kerr, AJ Morgen, kaveri Modayil, Jason Aplon, Sam Grundy and Rania Ahmed for the drafting and editing of this document. We would like to thank IOM colleagues from across all departments for their support in the development and implementation of this document, particularly those in country and regional offices who have been essential in ensuring this guidance remains practical, realistic and useful for field operations. Special thanks as well to Deputy Director General Ugochi Daniels for her unwavering support of the mainstreaming of conflict sensitivity throughout IOM operations. We would also like to express our gratitude to the PeaceNexus Foundation – Heloise Heyer and Anina Uhlig in particular – for supporting this initiative and the evolution of the conflict sensitivity work of IOM.CONTENTS iii STANDARDIZED GUIDANCE ON CONFLICT ANALYSIS CONTENTS ACkNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................................................ii ACRONYMS ...........................................................................................................................................................................v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................................vi INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................................................................................1 Intersections of conflict analysis with frameworks and commitments ..................................................2 Applications of conflict analysis ...............................................................................................................................2

Conflict-sensitive action .......................................................................................................................................2 Strategic planning and priorities .......................................................................................................................3 Building staff competencies ................................................................................................................................3 Institutional positioning ........................................................................................................................................3 Monitoring and evaluation ..................................................................................................................................3 Limitations of this guidance .......................................................................................................................................4

SECTION 1: OPERATING APPROACHES AND VALUES ..............................................................................5

Conflict sensitivity .........................................................................................................................................................5 Local ownership or proximity .................................................................................................................................5 Collaboration ..................................................................................................................................................................5 Inclusion .............................................................................................................................................................................6 Gender and age focus ..................................................................................................................................................6 Calibration ........................................................................................................................................................................6 Balance ...............................................................................................................................................................................7 SECTION 2: STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES FOR THE CONFLICT ANALYSIS PROCESS.....................................................................................................................8

Phase I: Design and prepare .....................................................................................................................................9

Design decisions ......................................................................................................................................................9 Preparations ............................................................................................................................................................11

Phase II: Collect and analyse ...................................................................................................................................13

Phase III: Report and update ..................................................................................................................................16

SECTION 3: ELEMENTS AND TOOLS OF CONFLICT ANALYSIS ........................................................18

A note on tools and methods ...............................................................................................................................18 Element 1: Profile ........................................................................................................................................................21 Sample questions ..................................................................................................................................................21 Element 2: Causes .......................................................................................................................................................23 Sample questions ..................................................................................................................................................24 Element 3: Stakeholders ...........................................................................................................................................27 Sample questions ..................................................................................................................................................27 Element 4: Dynamics .................................................................................................................................................30 Sample questions ..................................................................................................................................................30 Element 5: Applications ............................................................................................................................................33CONTENTS iv STANDARDIZED GUIDANCE ON CONFLICT ANALYSIS SECTION 4: TAILORING TOOLS FOR CONFLICT ANALYSIS ................................................................35 Adaptations to the analysis process ....................................................................................................................35 As part of humanitarian response .................................................................................................................35 In insecure and highly sensitive environments ..........................................................................................35 With limited resources .......................................................................................................................................36 Deepening the analysis ..............................................................................................................................................36 Migration ...................................................................................................................................................................36 Gender and age .....................................................................................................................................................38

Environment...................................................................................................................................................................41 Climate change and environmental degradation .....................................................................................41 Environmental peacebuilding ...........................................................................................................................43 Extractive industries ............................................................................................................................................43 Peacebuilding .................................................................................................................................................................44 Peace indicators .....................................................................................................................................................44

ANNEX 1. STEPS IN CONFLICT ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................46

ANNEX 2. SUGGESTED TOOLS AND METHODS FOR CONFLICT ANALYSIS ...........................48

ANNEX 3. THE CONFLICT ICEBERG MODEL ................................................................................................50

ANNEX 4. THE CONFLICT TREE MODEL ........................................................................................................51

BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................................................................................52ACRONYMS v STANDARDIZED GUIDANCE ON CONFLICT ANALYSIS ACRONYMS FGD focus group discussion GBV gender-based violence GPPAC Global Partnership for the Prevention of Armed Conflict HCT humanitarian country team HDPN humanitarian–development–peace nexus IEP Institute for Economics and Peace OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development SEA sexual exploitation and abuse SOGIESC sexual orientation, gender identity and expression, and sexual characteristics SOP(s) standard operating procedure(s) UNCT United Nations country team UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime UNDG United Nations Development Group (now the United Nations Sustainable Development Group)EXECUTIVE SUMMARY vi STANDARDIZED GUIDANCE ON CONFLICT ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY When assisting populations in need wherever they are found, aid organizations often work in fragile and conflict-affected contexts, meaning those characterized by recent, ongoing or latent conflict. Implementing any activity in these environments – or, generally, sensitive activities in any environment – requires conflict sensitivity to avoid aggravating conflict drivers and instead contribute to sustaining peace, where possible. Conflict sensitivity is the ability of an organization to understand the context in which it operates, anticipate the interaction between its activities and that context, and act on that understanding to maximize the positive and minimize the negative effects of its intervention(s) on affected populations. A solid analysis of conflict and peace dynamics is the foundation of conflict-sensitive action. This guidance document aims to assist field practitioners in designing and developing conflict analyses that both reflect their particular context and purpose(s) and align with international

effects of its intervention(s) on affected populations. A solid analysis of conflict and peace dynamics is the foundation of conflict-sensitive action. This guidance document aims to assist field practitioners in designing and developing conflict analyses that both reflect their particular context and purpose(s) and align with international standards. This guide is divided into four sections: (a) Section 1 (Operating Approaches and Values) highlights the approaches and values presented throughout the document to guide practitioners in their conduct of conflict analyses. (b) Section 2 (Standard Operating Procedures for the Conflict Analysis Process) outlines standard operating procedures (SOPs) for the conduct of conflict analyses, delineated in three phases: (a) design and preparations, (b) collection and analysis, and (c) reporting and updating. (c) Section 3 (Elements of Conflict Analysis) continues with the SOPs but focuses on content, detailing the five core elements of conflict analysis: situation profile, conflict causes, stakeholders, dynamics and applications. A variety of tools for gathering, analysing and communicating information and data are suggested for each element. (d) Section 4 (Tailoring T ools for Conflict Analysis) provides guidance to practitioners, who may need to either streamline their analysis because of constraints or expand their analysis based on local priorities. T owards either end, this guidance offers “good enough” options for practitioners unable to follow all the steps outlined in the preceding sections, as well as additional tools to deepen analysis of migration, gender and age, environment, and peacebuilding as dimensions of conflict and fragility. This guidance document recognizes the enormous variations across various contexts (geographic, political, economic, etc.). Humanitarian practitioners are encouraged to draw from this document and other resources referenced throughout, selecting the approaches, methods and tools that work best for them. Finally, any conflict analysis exercise is only a starting point for conflict sensitivity, which requires long-term commitment to understanding operational contexts, updating the analysis as these contexts evolve, and adapting to new situations – while minimizing harm and seizing opportunities to do good.INTRODUCTION 1

STANDARDIZED GUIDANCE ON CONFLICT ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

Finally, any conflict analysis exercise is only a starting point for conflict sensitivity, which requires long-term commitment to understanding operational contexts, updating the analysis as these contexts evolve, and adapting to new situations – while minimizing harm and seizing opportunities to do good.INTRODUCTION 1 STANDARDIZED GUIDANCE ON CONFLICT ANALYSIS INTRODUCTION Reaching populations in need, that live in fragile or conflict-affected environments, carries with it a heightened risk of doing harm to them. Even when an intervention does not expressly aim to sustain peace, conflict sensitivity grounded in conflict analysis is a precondition for effective and ethical programme design and delivery. In addition to working in conflict, aid organizations are increasingly called to work on conflict through purposeful preventive action and efforts to address drivers of violence and displacement. The trend reflects the global understanding that conflict not only causes widespread human suffering but also impedes sustainable development1 Peace, security and development are mutually dependent, and it is predicted that most of the world’s extreme poor will be living in countries experiencing fragility, conflict and/or violence by 2030. 2 In line with the global prevention agenda, 3 there is an urgent need for coherent and effective action to prevent conflict. Aid organizations engaging with these issues are pulled towards changing conflict landscapes, including especially the violent actors involved and the means they employ to achieve their aims. Armed groups have grown in number and diversity, while at the same time becoming less predictable in their allegiances, membership and motivations. Certain types of conflict harm appear to be on the rise, such as crime-related and urban violence, as well as extreme and brutal acts, including sexual violence. Civil conflicts often mutate and persist and can be rendered seemingly intractable as multiple crises and conflict systems converge in one geographic area, with aid and population movements sometimes instrumentalized. They are often concentrated in geographic pockets, likely along and across borders. In other words, these conflicts are simultaneously subnational and international in scope. 4 The increasing complexity, fluidity and duration of conflicts require organizations to be ever more judicious and adaptive in their work in this area. Integrating Conflict Sensitivity: An Operational Guide 5 outlines key concepts, demonstrates the

and international in scope. 4 The increasing complexity, fluidity and duration of conflicts require organizations to be ever more judicious and adaptive in their work in this area. Integrating Conflict Sensitivity: An Operational Guide 5 outlines key concepts, demonstrates the alignment between conflict sensitivity and existing legal and conceptual frameworks, and provides recommendations for integrating conflict sensitivity throughout the life cycle of IOM projects. While it underscores the critical role of conflict analysis in understanding and interacting with evolving conflict contexts, it does not, however, provide a full description of how such analyses should be undertaken. This current guidance, which sets out minimum requirements for the design and conduct of conflict analyses, thus serves as a companion document to the Operational Guide or any similar foundational document on conflict sensitivity. This document recognizes that conflict analyses vary greatly in terms of purpose, scope and, emphatically, context. T o account for these differences, humanitarian practitioners are encouraged to choose the methods and tools best suited to their needs, applying the standards set out in Section 2 and Section 3, and tailor their analysis to address constraints or delve deeper according to the selected themes presented in Section 4. 1 IOM, 2021. 2 World Bank, 2020. 3 The primacy of prevention is underscored in a series of high-level accords and policies, including the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; the twin resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the General Assembly on sustaining peace; the New York Declaration on Refugees and Migrants; the United Nations Secretary-General’s Prevention Agenda (i.e. on conflict and human rights violations) and Call to Action for Human Rights; and the Peace Promise made at the 2016 World Humanitarian Summit (see also IOM, 2020b). 4 United Nations and World Bank, 2018. 5 Internal IOM document.INTRODUCTION 2

STANDARDIZED GUIDANCE ON CONFLICT ANALYSIS

INTERSECTIONS OF CONFLICT ANALYSIS WITH FRAMEWORKS AND COMMITMENTS Stronger conflict analysis can reinforce aid organizations’ effectiveness and help meet key obligations, including those set out in the following documents, frameworks and processes:

5 Internal IOM document.INTRODUCTION 2

STANDARDIZED GUIDANCE ON CONFLICT ANALYSIS

INTERSECTIONS OF CONFLICT ANALYSIS WITH FRAMEWORKS AND COMMITMENTS Stronger conflict analysis can reinforce aid organizations’ effectiveness and help meet key obligations, including those set out in the following documents, frameworks and processes: (a) United Nations agendas for collective action. The Sustaining Peace Agenda and global pivot to prevention call upon organizations to engage in challenging contexts where conflict sensitivity is paramount, underscoring the importance of joint conflict analysis and planning. The report of the Secretary-General, “Our Common Agenda”, 6 and its policy brief, “A New Agenda for Peace”, 7 reiterate the importance of data analysis, including strategic foresight into future risks, and the urgency of taking preventive action. (b) Humanitarian–development–peace nexus. One recommendation of the Development Assistance Committee of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on the humanitarian–development–peace nexus (HDPN) pertains to joint assessments. T o be specific, the committee notes that a shared understanding of conflict drivers and peace opportunities offers organizations and partners a solid springboard for envisioning collective outcomes around preparedness, early warning and prevention, aside from supporting coherence and operationalization across the nexus.8 (c) The Grand Bargain and the New Way of Working. With similar aims, these two frameworks encourage integrated and collaborative efforts towards collective outcomes that address humanitarian needs and reduce future vulnerability. Joint analysis – to identify shared priorities and lay the groundwork for coherent planning – is foundational to these commitments. APPLICATIONS OF CONFLICT ANALYSIS The possible uses and applications of conflict analysis are outlined below. One or more may be relevant to a country office depending on its aims and design decisions, described in Section 2. Conflict-sensitive action Conflict analysis is essential to understanding a programme’s operational context, as it helps to anticipate possible interactions between the programme and its context and subsequently determine ways of working that do no harm and instead leverage opportunities to do good. Furthermore, conflict analysis aids in the identification of unequal power relations, marginalization

Conflict-sensitive action Conflict analysis is essential to understanding a programme’s operational context, as it helps to anticipate possible interactions between the programme and its context and subsequently determine ways of working that do no harm and instead leverage opportunities to do good. Furthermore, conflict analysis aids in the identification of unequal power relations, marginalization and inequalities, and can help reveal heightened risks faced by certain groups, including protection concerns such as gender-based violence (GBV), as well as sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA). 6 United Nations, 2021. (The report announces the upcoming development of a new agenda for peace, which will advance a holistic view of global security, with emphases on boosting investment in prevention and peacebuilding, reshaping responses to all forms of violence, and putting women and girls at the centre.) 7 United Nations, 2023. 8 Drawing from lessons on operationalizing HDPN in Colombia, Mali, Nigeria, Somalia and Türkiye, IOM highlights good practices in conflict analysis, which include the following: (a) joint and multisectoral conflict analyses, (b) decentralized analysis capacities at subnational levels and (c) risk analyses of strategies and programmes (see, e.g. Perret, 2019).INTRODUCTION 3 STANDARDIZED GUIDANCE ON CONFLICT ANALYSIS Within a project cycle, an initial conflict analysis is necessary to conceptualize and design conflictsensitive interventions and is often a donor requirement. Throughout project implementation, ongoing and/or updated analysis enables the project team to adapt programming to changing contexts and programme learning. Strategic planning and priorities Conflict analysis can assist senior management in setting or adjusting a strategic direction based on sectoral, geographic and population priorities. For programming geared towards sustaining peace, the analysis can help colleagues in the field to prioritize the more important conflict and peace issues, as well as developing theories of change. By helping field colleagues to identify crisis dynamics and anticipate future scenarios, conflict analysis is an essential input to early-warning efforts, anticipatory action and emergency preparedness.9 Building staff competencies The more that practitioners understand their contexts, “the less likely they are to make mistakes

dynamics and anticipate future scenarios, conflict analysis is an essential input to early-warning efforts, anticipatory action and emergency preparedness.9 Building staff competencies The more that practitioners understand their contexts, “the less likely they are to make mistakes and [the] more likely they are to identify productive avenues for working”.10 Conflict analysis, both as an activity and a set of findings, can thus strengthen staff capacities for strategic thinking, project development, local partner and community engagement, and field implementation. Within this process, mistakes are part of the learning process and discussed more openly, as appropriate. Institutional positioning Conflict analysis at the strategic level can facilitate an organization’s understanding of its potential contributions towards sustaining peace based on its comparative advantage(s) vis-à-vis its mandate.11 Coupling institutional strengths with robust capabilities for conflict analysis will further position an organization as a reliable source of information on issues of concern to host governments and the international community. Monitoring and evaluation For conflict-sensitive monitoring and evaluation, humanitarian practitioners are encouraged to identify conflict and peace indicators that capture both intentional and unintentional programming effects, measured against a baseline. While data on some indicators, such as conflict-related deaths, can be drawn from secondary sources, projectand local-level analyses provide opportunities to co-create, with affected populations, indicators that capture local dynamics and priorities. 12 Moreover, understanding the interactions among a conflict’s causes, actors and context is essential to propose, test and clarify theories of change for programming that aims to impact conflict and peace. 9 In crisis situations, conflict analysis is especially important for step 1 (risk analysis and monitoring) and step 3 (contingency planning) of the emergency preparedness cycle. 10 Anderson and Olson, 2003:45. 11 Inter-Agency Standing Committee, 2020. 12 Bush, 1998. (In this creative process, it may be important to consult with women and men separately, as they may assign different values to indicators. For example, men may put greater emphasis on unemployment and crime, while women may prioritize access to the market or informal negative discourse (Goetz and Treiber, 2012).)INTRODUCTION 4

values to indicators. For example, men may put greater emphasis on unemployment and crime, while women may prioritize access to the market or informal negative discourse (Goetz and Treiber, 2012).)INTRODUCTION 4 STANDARDIZED GUIDANCE ON CONFLICT ANALYSIS LIMITATIONS OF THIS GUIDANCE There are risks inherent to applying structured guidance to the unstructured phenomena that feature in many of the most challenging operational contexts. T oolkits that provide instruction on the collection, analysis and communication of information may encourage purely technocratic analysis that does not take into account political realities and local nuances.13 Colleagues in the field must be wary of these pitfalls to avoid taking a perfunctory, “check-the-box” approach. Suggestions on how to mitigate such a risk are offered in this guidance – for example, by embracing complexity and considering local perspectives. Furthermore, while comprehensive co