OIM - World Migration Report 2026 Chapter 1 – Report overview

MARIE MCAULIFFE PABLO CERIANI CERNADASThe opinions expressed in the report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the report do not imply expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning its frontiers or boundaries. IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society. As an intergovernmental organization, IOM acts with its partners in the international community to: assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration; advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants. _____________________________ Publisher: International Organization for Migration 17 route des Morillons P.O. Box 17 1211 Geneva 19

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Email: hq@iom.int Website: www.iom.int Cover photo: Bogota’s Mayoral Office runs the Orientation and Assistance Point (POA) in Bogota’s bus station where humanitarian partners like the International Organization for Migration (IOM) offer services to Venezuelan refugees and migrants. Bogota, Colombia. © IOM 2019/Muse MOHAMMED Required citation: McAuliffe, M. and P. Ceriani Cernadas (2026). Report overview: migration during a time of increasing disruption and distortion. In:  World Migration Report 2026 (M. McAuliffe and P. Ceriani Cernadas, eds.).

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PUB2025/026/L/11

WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2026

1

REPORT OVERVIEW: MIGRATION DURING A TIME

OF INCREASING DISRUPTION AND DISTORTION 1,2

Introduction It has been two years since the release of the World Migration Report 2024, which underscored how migration continues to be part of the solution in a rapidly changing world while key challenges persist. Since then, the global context for migration and displacement has been marked by deepening disruption and the distortion of facts and evidence on migration. This is occurring within a context of geopolitical tensions, technological acceleration, the curtailment of migrants’ rights and environmental degradation, all of which are interacting with demographic change, uneven development, humanitarian crises and tightening fiscal space, ultimately creating a complex landscape in which migration opportunities and challenges are being reshaped simultaneously. Hardening geopolitics continue to manifest in protracted and new conflicts, strategic rivalry between major powers and regional instability. Over the course of the last two years, large-scale conflicts such as those in the Sudan, Ukraine, Gaza and other parts of the Middle East and Africa have had profound implications for human security, multilateralism and international law, while generating significant human displacement. For example, data show that more than 83  million people were living in internal displacement by the end of 2024, the highest number ever recorded and more than double the figure reported just over a decade ago. 3 At the same time, migration

multilateralism and international law, while generating significant human displacement. For example, data show that more than 83  million people were living in internal displacement by the end of 2024, the highest number ever recorded and more than double the figure reported just over a decade ago. 3 At the same time, migration has increasingly been instrumentalized in domestic and regional politics, including through the deliberate use of migration and migrants as a tool in electoral campaigns and geopolitical bargaining. Environmental disruption is no longer a future risk but a central feature of contemporary mobility. Successive years of record-breaking temperatures, droughts, wildfires and storms have been accompanied by rising disasterrelated displacement. The current estimates indicate that there were around 65.8  million internal displacements in 2024 alone, 45.8 million of them associated with disasters and 20.1 million with conflict and violence. 4 Disaster displacements are now occurring across an expanding range of countries and are increasingly shaped by the interaction of climate change, environmental degradation, poverty and inadequate infrastructure. These dynamics reinforce earlier assessments that climate change and environmental stressors are amplifying existing vulnerabilities and contributing to both sudden-onset and slow-onset forms of migration, displacement and immobility. T echnological change has continued apace, often outstripping regulatory frameworks and institutional capacity. The last report highlighted the rapid emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools and the risks that accelerating digitalization could deepen existing “digital divides” in migration governance and access to mobility. Since then, AI-enabled systems have spread further across sectors, including border management, visa processing, identity management and labour market intermediation. While these tools may offer efficiency gains and new possibilities 1 Marie McAuliffe, former head of IOM Research and independent consultant; Pablo Ceriani Cernadas, Director of the Specialization in Migration and Asylum, National University of Lanús. 2 The research and analyses included in this chapter were current at the time of writing (December 2025). 3 IDMC, 2025. 4 Ibid.2

Report overview: migration during a time of increasing disruption and distortion

760

Migration and Asylum, National University of Lanús. 2 The research and analyses included in this chapter were current at the time of writing (December 2025). 3 IDMC, 2025. 4 Ibid.2

Report overview: migration during a time of increasing disruption and distortion 760 for facilitating regular migration, they also raise important questions about bias and other human rights concerns, 5 accountability, data protection and the impacts of automation on labour demand in migrant-dense sectors. In 2025, for example, we witnessed major multinational companies engage in major staffing level reductions due to AI uptake.6 Plus, uneven uptake that is largely concentrated in high-income countries with robust digital infrastructure risks widening disparities between States and within societies, potentially compounding the structural disadvantages already experienced by least developed countries and marginalized communities. 7

Demographic change and development trajectories are also central to understanding the current moment of disruption. Many high-income and some middle-income countries are confronting population ageing, labour shortages and fiscal pressures that place renewed emphasis on migration as a potential source of workers and taxpayers. In contrast, a number of lowand lower-middle-income countries are experiencing rapid population growth, a “youth bulge” and urbanization, often in contexts of limited decent work opportunities and constrained public finances. These divergent demographic trends intersect with persistent inequalities between and within countries, shaping both the aspirations and the constraints that people face when considering migration. Long-term data continue to show that, despite the increase in the absolute number of international migrants over recent decades, cross-border migration remains the exception rather than the rule, with most people living in the country in which they were born. 8 It is within this wider landscape of overlapping and interacting disruptions – geopolitical, technological, environmental, demographic, developmental and humanitarian – that this World Migration Report 2026 examines recent developments in migration. What has happened in migration? A great deal has happened in migration in the last two years since the release of the World Migration Report 2024. As in previous periods, migration and displacement have been profoundly affected by conflict, violence, disasters, inequality and economic uncertainty, even as long-term patterns of migration and remittance flows have remained

What has happened in migration? A great deal has happened in migration in the last two years since the release of the World Migration Report 2024. As in previous periods, migration and displacement have been profoundly affected by conflict, violence, disasters, inequality and economic uncertainty, even as long-term patterns of migration and remittance flows have remained remarkably stable. Humanitarian crises, development setbacks and tightening budgets add an additional layer of disruption. Global needs have reached record levels, driven by protracted conflicts, economic shocks, climate-related disasters and public health emergencies. Yet official development assistance and humanitarian funding have come under increasing strain, with many appeals significantly underfunded. In this context, the Humanitarian Reset process seeks to reexamine how humanitarian action is financed and delivered, with greater emphasis on anticipatory approaches, stronger links between humanitarian, development and peace efforts, and increased leadership by affected States and communities. This reset continues to unfold in a fiscal environment where overall resources for both development and humanitarian response are stagnating or declining in real terms, heightening concerns about unmet needs and the sustainability of support for migrants, refugees and internally displaced people (IDPs). 5 OHCHR and University of Essex, 2023. 6 Dikshit et al., 2025. 7 Beduschi and McAuliffe, 2021; McAuliffe, 2023. 8 UN DESA, 2025.3

WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2026

Major migration and displacement events have continued to cause hardship, trauma and loss of life. Conflicts in countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Myanmar, the Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic, Yemen and others have persisted or escalated, compounding the impacts of additional crises such as the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza. By the end of 2024, over 120  million people were living in displacement worldwide, including refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs and others in need of international protection. 9 This figure underscores the scale and persistence of displacement, as well as the difficulties many people face in achieving durable solutions. Climateand weather-related disasters have become more frequent and severe, contributing to record numbers

including refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs and others in need of international protection. 9 This figure underscores the scale and persistence of displacement, as well as the difficulties many people face in achieving durable solutions. Climateand weather-related disasters have become more frequent and severe, contributing to record numbers of internal displacements. In 2024, there were an estimated 65.8  million internal displacements worldwide, of which disasters accounted for around 45.8  million – the highest level on record – and conflict and violence for 20.1  million. While many of these movements were associated with short-term evacuations, they nonetheless highlight the growing role of environmental disruption in shaping mobility, often in combination with other drivers such as poverty, weak infrastructure and governance challenges. These dynamics echo earlier findings that disasterand climate-related displacements have been rising across multiple regions, including Asia, the Americas and Africa. Against this backdrop of heightened disruption, long-term data show that international migration has continued to grow, though at a gradual pace. There were around 304 million international migrants worldwide by mid-2024, equivalent to 3.7 per cent of the global population, compared with around 275 million (3.5%) in 2020 and a little over 250 million (3.3%) in 2015. 10 Despite the increase in absolute numbers, the share of international migrants in the world’s population has risen only incrementally over the past half-century, confirming that most people continue to reside in their country of birth and that internal migration remains far more common than crossborder movement. At the same time, international migration and mobility remain important drivers of development, innovation and resilience. International remittances, which were estimated at USD  905  billion globally in 2024 – including USD  685  billion to lowand middle-income countries – continue to provide vital support to households and communities, often acting as a buffer in times of crisis. 11 Migration also contributes to skills circulation, entrepreneurship and knowledge transfer, with impacts that extend well beyond immediate economic indicators. These positive dimensions coexist with serious challenges, including irregular migration, human trafficking and

and communities, often acting as a buffer in times of crisis. 11 Migration also contributes to skills circulation, entrepreneurship and knowledge transfer, with impacts that extend well beyond immediate economic indicators. These positive dimensions coexist with serious challenges, including irregular migration, human trafficking and exploitation, constrained access to regular pathways and growing xenophobia in many societies. As flagged by the United Nations Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination (CERD) and the United Nations Committee on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Members of their Families (CMW), in their recently adopted joint general recommendations and comments on guidelines for eradicating xenophobia,12 evidence indicates an “escalating impact of xenophobia on the rights of migrants and others perceived as such, through narratives that unfairly target migrants as responsible for social, economic and political problems. Such narratives have been used to justify laws, policies and practices that curtail the human rights of migrants, perpetuating a vicious circle of harm”. 13 Politically, migration has remained highly salient and, in some contexts, increasingly contentious. The previous edition of the World Migration Report noted the growing use of migration as a political tool in democratic systems, 9 IDMC, 2025; UNHCR, 2025. 10 UN DESA, 2025. 11 Ratha et al., 2024. 12 CERD and CMW, 2025. 13 Ibid., paragraph 3.4

Report overview: migration during a time of increasing disruption and distortion including in election campaigns and inter-State relations, and a rise in anti-immigrant sentiment in parts of Europe, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. These trends have persisted, with migration frequently framed in public debates through the lens of security, identity or economic competition, even as many economies continue to depend on migrant workers across a range of sectors.

Misinformation and disinformation are increasingly prevalent in migration debates globally, facilitated in part by social media as well as generative AI, though with the acknowledgement that tools to counter such phenomena are increasingly being developed and deployed via AI technologies. 14 At the same time, some States and regional

migrant workers across a range of sectors. Misinformation and disinformation are increasingly prevalent in migration debates globally, facilitated in part by social media as well as generative AI, though with the acknowledgement that tools to counter such phenomena are increasingly being developed and deployed via AI technologies. 14 At the same time, some States and regional organizations have sought to expand or drastically refine regular migration pathways, highlighting the ongoing tension between restrictive and facilitative approaches, including at the expense of economic growth as well as migrants’ rights. Voluntary and involuntary returns have also become more prominent features of some migration systems, and a growing body of 2025 analysis has questioned whether specific return practices are compatible with applicable legal frameworks and international law in certain contexts. 15 Important developments have also occurred in the way migration is measured and governed. In 2025, the United Nations Statistical Commission endorsed revised Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration and T emporary Mobility, updating the 1998 standards to reflect changes in migration patterns and data systems. 16 The revised recommendations clarify key concepts, distinguish more clearly between long-term migration and various forms of temporary mobility, and encourage the use of new data sources. Their implementation is expected, over time, to improve the comparability and quality of international migration statistics, thereby supporting more informed policymaking. Taken together, these developments suggest that the period since the World Migration Report 2024 has been one of intensified and overlapping disruptions rather than of structural break. The scale and complexity of displacement have continued to grow, particularly in contexts of protracted conflict and environmental stress, while longterm trends in international migration and remittances have remained relatively resilient. Understanding how these dynamics interact, and how policy, practice and international cooperation can become more responsive, is at the heart of the analysis that follows in this report. The World Migration Report series The first World Migration Report was published 26 years ago, initially as a one-off report designed to increase the understanding of migration by policymakers and the general public. It was conceived at a time when the effects of globalization were being felt in many parts of the world and in a multitude of ways. Indeed, the first report

The first World Migration Report was published 26 years ago, initially as a one-off report designed to increase the understanding of migration by policymakers and the general public. It was conceived at a time when the effects of globalization were being felt in many parts of the world and in a multitude of ways. Indeed, the first report states that part of its genesis was due to the effects of globalization on migration patterns, and that the report therefore “looks at the increasingly global economy which has led to an unprecedented influx of newcomers in many countries”.17 14 Culloty et al., 2021; McAuliffe and Martin Galan, forthcoming. 15 UNAMA, 2025; ECRE, 2025; DHS, 2025. 16 See Chapter 2 of this report for discussion. 17 IOM, 2000.5

WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2026

Table 1 provides a summary of key statistics reported in the first edition (World Migration Report 2000), as compared to this current edition. It shows that while some aspects have stayed fairly constant – the overall proportion of the world’s population that are migrants – other aspects have changed dramatically. International remittances, for example, have grown from an estimated USD  128  billion to USD  905  billion, underscoring the salience of international migration as a driver of development. Also of note in Table 1 is the rise in international migrants globally, but more strikingly, the rise in the number of refugees and IDPs, all the while remaining small proportions of the world’s population. Table 1. Key facts and figures from World Migration Report 2000 and World Migration Report 2026 2000 report 2026 report Estimated number of international migrants 150 million 304 million Estimated proportion of world population who are migrants 2.8% 3.7%

Estimated proportion of female international migrants 47.5% 48.0% Region with the highest proportion of international migrants Oceania Oceania Country with the highest proportion of international migrants United Arab Emirates Qatar Number of migrant workers – 167.7 million Global international remittances (USD) 128 billion 905 billion Number of refugees 14 million 36.9 million Number of internally displaced persons 21 million 83.4 million Sources: See IOM, 2000 and the present edition of the report for sources.

Notes: The dates of the data estimates in the table may be different to the report publishing date (refer to the reports for more detail on dates of estimates); refer to Chapter 3 of this report for regional breakdowns.

The contribution of the World Migration Report 2000 to migration policy as well as migration studies was timely, and its success heralded the World Migration Report series. Since 2000, 13 world migration reports have been produced by IOM, and the report continues to focus on making a relevant, sound and evidence-based contribution that increases the understanding of migration by policymakers, practitioners, researchers and the general public. T o support this objective, the series was refined in 2016, moving away from a single theme for each edition to being a global reference report for a wider audience. Each edition now has two parts, comprising: • Part I. Key data and information on migration and migrants. • Part II. Balanced, evidence-based analysis of complex and emerging migration issues.6

Report overview: migration during a time of increasing disruption and distortion

World Migration Report 2026 This edition builds on recent editions by providing updated migration statistics at the global and regional levels. Part I, “key data and information on migration”, includes separate chapters on global migration trends and patterns, as well as on regional dimensions and developments. These two chapters have been produced institutionally by IOM, drawing primarily on analyses by IOM experts, practitioners and officials around the world, based on data from a wide range of relevant organizations. The five chapters in Part II are authored by applied and academic researchers working on migration, including IOM researchers. They cover a range of “complex and emerging migration issues”, including:

IOM, drawing primarily on analyses by IOM experts, practitioners and officials around the world, based on data from a wide range of relevant organizations. The five chapters in Part II are authored by applied and academic researchers working on migration, including IOM researchers. They cover a range of “complex and emerging migration issues”, including: • Foundational issues in migration and development. • Myths and realities of regular migration pathways. • Local-level responses to climate migration and displacement. • Internal displacement dimensions and developments. • Disability and migration. While the choice of these topics is necessarily selective and subjective, all the chapters in Part II of this report are directly relevant to some of the most prominent and important debates about migration in the world today. Many of these topics lie at the heart of the conundrums that face policymakers as they seek to formulate effective, proportionate and constructive responses to complex public policy issues related to migration. Accordingly, the chapters aim to inform current and future policy deliberations and discussions by providing a clear identification of the key issues, a critical overview of relevant research and analysis, and a discussion of the implications for future research and policymaking. The chapters are not meant to be prescriptive, in the sense of advocating particular policy “solutions” – especially as the immediate context is an important determinant of policy settings – but to be informative and helpful in what can be highly contested debates. Part I Chapter 2 provides an overview of the latest available global data and trends on international migrants (stocks) and international migration (flows). It also provides a discussion of particular migrant groups – namely, migrant workers, international students, refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs – as well as of international remittances. In addition, the chapter refers to the existing body of IOM programmatic data, particularly on missing migrants, assisted voluntary returns and reintegration, resettlement and displacement tracking. While these data are generally not global or representative, they can provide insights into changes that have occurred in relevant IOM programming and operations worldwide. Following the global overview, Chapter 3 provides a discussion of key regional dimensions

returns and reintegration, resettlement and displacement tracking. While these data are generally not global or representative, they can provide insights into changes that have occurred in relevant IOM programming and operations worldwide. Following the global overview, Chapter 3 provides a discussion of key regional dimensions of migration. The discussion focuses on six world regions as identified by the United Nations: Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern America and Oceania. For each of these regions, the analysis includes an overview and discussion of key migration and displacement statistics.7

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Part II Chapter 4 – Migration and development: a strategic global asset at risk • This chapter argues that international migration is a strategic global asset for sustainable development as a global public good that is increasingly at risk. Drawing on long-term evidence, it shows how migrants and diasporas drive development through large and resilient remittance flows, investment, knowledge and skills transfer, and wider forms of civic and political engagement, often outperforming other actors in advancing the Sustainable Development Goals. It traces how these contributions are now embedded in global financing for development frameworks and illustrates through regional case studies how migration catalyses development in diverse contexts, from managed climate-related mobility in small island developing States to humanitarian– development–peace approaches in the Horn of Africa. • The chapter outlines key policy directions to safeguard migration as a strategic asset: lowering remittance costs and leveraging them more effectively; promoting brain circulation through skills partnerships and circular migration; strengthening diaspora institutions; grounding migration policies in human rights and social protection; and investing in better data and evidence-based governance. Chapter 5 – Rethinking regular migration pathways: myths, realities and opportunities • This chapter examines how “regular migration pathways” are defined, governed and experienced in practice, challenging dominant myths that they are uniformly open, that they inevitably fuel more migration, or that closing them will “solve” irregular migration. It shows that regular pathways – for work, study, family, protection, return and regularization – have become increasingly selective and unequally distributed across regions,

dominant myths that they are uniformly open, that they inevitably fuel more migration, or that closing them will “solve” irregular migration. It shows that regular pathways – for work, study, family, protection, return and regularization – have become increasingly selective and unequally distributed across regions, countries and groups, often reflecting broader inequalities in human development, visa regimes and geopolitical relations. • Drawing on global evidence and regional case studies, the chapter highlights how access to regular status can expand migrants’ access to rights, health, labour market opportunities and ability to remit and invest, with positive effects for both origin and destination communities, while restrictive policies tend to displace rather than reduce mobility, pushing people into riskier, more precarious and irregular journeys. It argues that well-designed, accessible and rights-based regular pathways – including regularization measures – are central to good migration governance, to reducing exploitation and irregularity, and to realizing the development potential of migration, provided they are coupled with broader measures for social, economic and legal inclusion.8

Report overview: migration during a time of increasing disruption and distortion Chapter 6 – Addressing climate mobility: the role of local and community action • The chapter examines how climate change is reshaping human mobility worldwide, through both sudden disasters and slowonset degradation. It argues that responses remain too reactive, crisis driven and disconnected from long-term adaptation planning.

It highlights the complexity of the climate–migration nexus, addressing displacement, voluntary and involuntary migration, and “trapped” populations who cannot move. While global data and projections show rising climate-related mobility, they often miss local realities, especially for marginalized groups. The chapter therefore emphasizes the need for disaggregated, locally grounded evidence to design nuanced, context-specific strategies that link climate action, development, disaster risk reduction, social protection and migration governance. • Against this backdrop, the chapter argues that local governments, communities, Indigenous peoples, diasporas, ci