OIM - World Migration Report 2026 Chapter 5

SIMON MCMAHON LUCIANA GANDINI BALKISSA DAOUDA DIALLOThe opinions expressed in the report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the report do not imply expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning its frontiers or boundaries. IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society. As an intergovernmental organization, IOM acts with its partners in the international community to: assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration; advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants. _____________________________ Publisher: International Organization for Migration 17 route des Morillons P.O. Box 17 1211 Geneva 19

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Email: hq@iom.int Website: www.iom.int Cover photo: Luay, his wife and four children prepare to be resettled to France where they hope to find better medical care for their son, who suffers from a medical condition and struggles to walk. The Syrian refugee family is looking forward to a new life. Beirut, Lebanon. © IOM 2019/Angela WELLS Required citation: McMahon, S., B. Daouda Diallo and L. Gandini (2026). Rethinking regular migration pathways: myths, realities and opportunities. In:  World Migration Report 2026 (M. McAuliffe and P. Ceriani Cernadas, eds.).

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PUB2025/026/L/51

WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2026

5

RETHINKING REGULAR MIGRATION PATHWAYS:

MYTHS, REALITIES AND OPPORTUNITIES 1,2

Introduction Around the world, governments have repeatedly sought to regulate who moves to their countries and with what implications. Over recent years, such efforts have been closely associated with the term “regular pathways”. 3 In general, a path or pathway can be understood as a clearly defined way or track to guide people from one point to another. Regular pathways for migration are the mechanisms that enable people to move to, enter, stay in, exit, or re-enter a country or territory in an authorized manner along their migration journey. Similarly provide a way to enable people to move to, enter, and stay in a given country or territory. Although opportunities alone are insufficient to determine whether people will or will not migrate (peoples’ aspirations or intentions and abilities or capabilities to move are also key determinants), 4 they do influence where, when and how people migrate. As a result, the availability or lack of regular pathways can have a significant impact on how migration happens. Political debates and public policy concerning regular pathways are often dominated by myths and misconceptions. 5 These often describe migration as a problem, or something out of control. They are frequently reflected in public concerns about the scale of migration and its implications for the labour market, public services, crime and other

Political debates and public policy concerning regular pathways are often dominated by myths and misconceptions. 5 These often describe migration as a problem, or something out of control. They are frequently reflected in public concerns about the scale of migration and its implications for the labour market, public services, crime and other social and cultural issues. These are, in turn, related to and fuelled by broader fears about the perceived negative impact of globalization on State sovereignty and borders, national identities and social cohesion. These fears tend to result in demands for migration pathways to be closed, or at least more strictly regulated and controlled. Examples include imposing increasingly severe visa costs, 6 raising minimum income requirements to qualify for permits to study, work or for family reunification, 7 or reducing the range of circumstances in which people qualify for forms of international protection. 8 This chapter examines regular migration pathways with the aim of unpacking the myths that dominate the landscapes of political debate and public policy. It highlights trends in regular pathways and their implications for the global scale of international migration. It also examines the effects of regular pathways, such as their role in addressing 1 Simon McMahon, independent consultant; Luciana Gandini, Senior Researcher, Institute for Legal Research, National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM); Balkissa Daouda Diallo, Postdoctoral Fellow, African Centre for Migration and Society (ACMS), University of the Witwatersrand. 2 The research and analyses included in this chapter were current at the time of writing (August 2025). 3 The term “regular pathways” is used throughout this chapter, rather than the term “legal pathways” that is sometimes used by different governments or organizations. There is no substantive difference between the terms; this chapter uses the one term for consistency, except where quoting sources that use the other. 4 Carling and Schewel, 2017.

5 Crawley et al., 2017; de Haas, 2023. 6 Mau et al., 2015; T orpey, 2000. 7 Such as in Australia (see Government of Australia, n.d.) or the United Kingdom (see Government of the United Kingdom, n.d.) 8 For example, in 2018 the Italian Government removed the status of “humanitarian protection”, to be replaced with the more limited status of “special protection” (Repubblica Italiana, 2018). For a legal analysis, see Lodos, 2023.2 Rethinking regular migration pathways: myths, realities and opportunities demographic imbalances and labour shortages in destination countries and benefiting communities and families in places of origin through remittances, skills acquisition and cultural exchange, as well as enabling people in need of protection to reach safety. The following section reviews definitions of regular pathways and how they have changed over time. The subsequent section examines data and research, highlighting a trend of regular pathways becoming increasingly selective and unequally distributed among places and populations. This is followed by a review of available evidence regarding the impacts and outcomes of regular pathways or a lack of them, including case studies from different world regions (see the appendices ). Concepts Although not a new concept, over recent years “regular pathways” has become an increasingly prevalent term in politics, policy and practice related to international migration. 9 The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration specifically calls for enhancing the availability and flexibility of pathways for regular migration. 10 In the European Union, as is the case in many high income countries, regular pathways have been framed as a way to attract skilled workers in a context of demographic change and a declining working-age population. In the Americas, regular pathways have been a centrepiece of regional cooperation to create the conditions for safe, orderly, regular and humane migration and for international protection, such as in the Los Angeles Declaration among 21 States in the Americas and the Caribbean.11 The African Union Commission has framed regular pathways as a way to provide young people with opportunities and an alternative to irregular migration in the Migration Policy Framework for

and humane migration and for international protection, such as in the Los Angeles Declaration among 21 States in the Americas and the Caribbean.11 The African Union Commission has framed regular pathways as a way to provide young people with opportunities and an alternative to irregular migration in the Migration Policy Framework for Africa.12 The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) also lists “promoting migration through regular channels” as a primary recommendation for the Asia-Pacific region as a way of reducing irregular migration, in particular by lowering the costs of entry and stay (visas and work permits) to provide alternatives to travelling with smugglers. The increasing use of the term has resulted in an expansion of the ideas and approaches that are associated with regular pathways. Some core elements can nonetheless be identified. Regular pathways is a catch-all term describing the broad range of ways that States seek to regulate who can migrate, as well as when, where and how they can migrate. These are set out in national laws and policies, as well as in bilateral or multilateral agreements between States or embedded within regional integration processes, often alongside other policy areas beyond migration and human mobility. They enable people to move to, enter, stay in, or return from a given State territory. There are regular pathways for different groups and for multiple purposes, such as labour migration, family reunification and study, as well as return, readmission and reintegration. There are pathways for people in need of protection, and complementary pathways for those recognized as refugees to move for work purposes. Some are stable; fixed over periods of time; others are ad hoc measures for a particular group or circumstance. 13 Beyond establishing conditions for entry, exit and residence in a country, regular pathways are also embedded in political regimes and constitute a tool of international relations. 14 9 See Appendix A for more details of the examples listed here. See also Ruhs and Anderson, 2010. 10 See objective 5 of the Global Compact for Migration: “We commit to adapt options and pathways for regular migration in a manner that facilitates labour mobility and decent work reflecting demographic and labour market realities, optimizes education opportunities,

9 See Appendix A for more details of the examples listed here. See also Ruhs and Anderson, 2010. 10 See objective 5 of the Global Compact for Migration: “We commit to adapt options and pathways for regular migration in a manner that facilitates labour mobility and decent work reflecting demographic and labour market realities, optimizes education opportunities, upholds the right to family life, and responds to the needs of migrants in a situation of vulnerability, with a view to expanding and diversifying availability of pathways for safe, orderly and regular migration” (United Nations, 2018). 11 United States White House, 2022. 12 African Union Commission, 2018a. 13 Such is the case of the various responses that were implemented to address Venezuelan displacement in Latin America. 14 Czaika et al., 2018.3

WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2026

Regularization of the status of people residing irregularly is a regular pathway, albeit of people who have already crossed an international border. Regularizations are commonly used tools in migration management. They may be implemented on a case-by-case basis (such as via immigration status resolution or to address the rights of migrant children and their families), through medium to large ad hoc programmes, or they may be more consistent and stable mechanisms set out in law and policy (such as via temporary protection status or labour market-driven regularizations). Recently, during the COVID-19 pandemic, several governments implemented a number of regularization measures, with profound implications for migrant populations, local communities and the policymaking process. Regular pathways are put into practice through a diverse range of bureaucratic and operational activities involving multiple stakeholders within and outside of government, at global, regional, national and local levels. The United Nations Network on Migration includes a Working Group on Regular Pathways for Migrants in Vulnerable Situations.15 The International Organization for Migration (IOM) presents “facilitating regular pathways” as one of its three overarching strategic priorities. 16 Civil society can have a role in shaping who moves, where, for how long and with what impact on themselves and the communities they move to, such as on sponsorship pathways

Situations.15 The International Organization for Migration (IOM) presents “facilitating regular pathways” as one of its three overarching strategic priorities. 16 Civil society can have a role in shaping who moves, where, for how long and with what impact on themselves and the communities they move to, such as on sponsorship pathways for refugees. These are defined by UNHCR as “programmes in which private individuals, entities or organizations (nomination sponsors) directly engage in admission efforts by identifying, selecting and supporting the entry and stay of nominated individuals in need of international protection”. 17 The Global Refugee Sponsorship Initiative identified such programmes in 13 countries worldwide in 2022. 18 Several non-governmental organizations have also had an increasing role in advocating for and implementing regular pathways for labour migration, such as Pathways International, which works “with leaders and innovators to design, launch, and expand safe and legal routes for displaced people”.19 Labor Mobility Pathways is another example, working to “dramatically increase the scale and quality of labor mobility, helping workers from low income countries to access quality jobs across borders and businesses in high income countries to address deepening labor shortages”. 20 Talent Beyond Boundaries is yet another example, seeking to provide opportunities for refugees to migrate for work by connecting employers with refugees and working with governments to open skilled migration pathways for refugees that benefit individuals, family members, communities and the economy. 21 These and other organizations highlight an expanding ecosystem of governance actors, within and outside of government, with an interest in regular pathways. Nevertheless, it should also be noted that the process of obtaining regular migration status is not always linear or predictable. In many cases, migrants’ statuses change through different administrative categories and may even shift between periods of being regular and irregular. This may be because the migrants’ situations do not fully align with existing frameworks or because social, economic, political and regulatory conditions may change over time. 15 United Nation Network on Migration, n.d.a. 16 The Strategic Plan states that “IOM works to unleash the potential of migration by assisting States to establish, expand and enhance regular migration pathways, while reducing irregular migration” (IOM, 2024a).

15 United Nation Network on Migration, n.d.a. 16 The Strategic Plan states that “IOM works to unleash the potential of migration by assisting States to establish, expand and enhance regular migration pathways, while reducing irregular migration” (IOM, 2024a). 17 UNHCR, 2024a. 18 See GRSI, 2022. For an examination of programmes and their impact in Europe, see Zenzuchi et al., 2023. 19 See Pathway International, n.d. 20 See LaMP, n.d. 21 See Talent Beyond Boundaries, n.d.4 Rethinking regular migration pathways: myths, realities and opportunities Context It is challenging to measure the success or effects of regular pathways, given the varied and changing nature of the different mechanisms and frameworks that they encompass (see the box on data access). However, some general trends can be identified through global data sets and large-scale research projects on migration policies and legislation. These data show a clear pattern: regular pathways for migration have become increasingly selective, and access to them has become increasingly unevenly distributed around the world. In specific regions and countries, however, there is a more varied trend of opening and closing pathways over time for different populations in different contexts. The challenges of data access and systematization The collection and analysis of data on migrants in irregular – and even regular – situations present significant challenges. The lack of accurate data hampers the development of effective policies and the evaluation of regularization programmes. On one hand, data on migrants in irregular situations are inherently difficult to collect, due to the undocumented nature of such migrants. On the other, the absence of detailed information on migration status in administrative records limits the ability to monitor and respond to the needs of this population. In many countries there are no consistent or publicly available records indicating how many migrants have regular status, how many have been regularized, under which programmes, or how these figures vary over time. Many countries do not conduct longitudinal tracking of permits issued, nor can they identify the unique individuals who receive them. Furthermore, much of the available information refers to administrative events (such as visa issuances) rather than the current legal status of individuals, making

vary over time. Many countries do not conduct longitudinal tracking of permits issued, nor can they identify the unique individuals who receive them. Furthermore, much of the available information refers to administrative events (such as visa issuances) rather than the current legal status of individuals, making accurate estimations difficult. The situation varies widely by country: in some cases, there is a total absence of data; in others, available data are so limited that studies have resorted to broad estimates based on ranges, explicitly acknowledging the uncertainty of these figures. a Additionally, the lack of disaggregated data (by age, sex, previous status, geographic location, and so on) further complicates the assessment of regularization processes and their impact.b a Gandini and Selee, 2023. b Chaves-González and Delgado, 2023. The World Migration Report 2024 has already highlighted a “polarizing effect”, whereby migration is increasingly associated with highly developed countries, with implications for the possibilities that international migration offers to sustainable development in less developed countries and communities. 22 Historically, international migration to low income countries has tended to be very limited; very few people tend to migrate to countries that rank low on the Human Development Index (HDI); more migrate to countries with a medium HDI ranking; more again to countries with a high HDI ranking; and the largest number migrate to countries with a very high HDI ranking. This is evidenced by global international migrant stock and HDI data showing that between 1995 and 2020, migration from low and medium ranked HDI countries increased, but only slightly. At the same time, migration from countries 22 McAuliffe and Oucho, 2024.5 WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2026 with high and very high HDI rankings, to other countries with high and very high HDI rankings, is pronounced and has increased significantly since 1995. This suggests a greater increase in the availability of opportunities for migration for people in countries with high and very high levels of human development than in the availability of such opportunities for people in countries with lower levels of human development.

and has increased significantly since 1995. This suggests a greater increase in the availability of opportunities for migration for people in countries with high and very high levels of human development than in the availability of such opportunities for people in countries with lower levels of human development. Figure 1. Immigrants and emigrants by Human Development Index country category, 2020 Low 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Medium Emigrants Immigrants Human Development Index Percentage of population High Very high Source: McAuliffe et al., 2024.

Note: Some categories of international migrant are not included.

Figure 2. Association between Human Development Index scores and immigrant/emigrant stocks, 2005 Very Low Low Middle High Very high 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Human Development Index Percentage of population Emigrants Immigrants Source: McAuliffe et al., 2024.

Note: Categorization by author (not UNDP HDI 4 categories).6

Rethinking regular migration pathways: myths, realities and opportunities These global inequalities in terms of access to opportunities for regular mobility can also be seen in the patterns of conditions for entry and stay provided by visas and passports. 23 As noted in a previous edition of the World Migration Report (2022), visa access can be described as related to a “lottery of birth”. This is evidenced by data from the Visa Restrictions Index, a global ranking of countries according to the travel freedom of their citizens, that reveals how an individual’s ability to enter a country is in many respects determined by nationality, which in turn is influenced by a country’s status and relations within the international community. In general, nationals from countries with very high levels of human development can travel visa free to a significant majority of all countries worldwide. At the same time, citizens of countries with lower levels of human development tend to face much greater restrictions on visa-free travel. There are signals that, on one hand, this trend may continue or even become more pronounced as international relations become more uncertain. 24 On the other hand, the presence of measures to establish visa-free travel at continental and regional levels in different parts of the world (see below

greater restrictions on visa-free travel. There are signals that, on one hand, this trend may continue or even become more pronounced as international relations become more uncertain. 24 On the other hand, the presence of measures to establish visa-free travel at continental and regional levels in different parts of the world (see below for some examples) also suggests that, while some opportunities for mobility may become more restrictive, others may become less so. Other studies show similar trends. An empirical study based on the Determinants of International Migration (DEMIG) policy database, tracking migration policies in 45 countries, showed that policies generally became less restrictive between 1945 and 2014. 25 However, at the same time, certain pathways became more restrictive. More specifically, visas, entry and integration policies had become less restrictive, while border control and exit policies had become more restrictive (especially pertaining to return and deportation programmes, and in some cases authoritarian regimes’ conditions for the exit of citizens).26 Also, while policies towards irregular migrants and family migrants had been tightened, less restrictive changes were noted in policies targeting highly skilled and lower skilled workers, students and refugees. In a similar fashion, the International Migration Policy and Law Analysis (IMPALA) database on migration policies and laws from 1999 to 2008 both found trends toward more complex, and often more restrictive, regulation since the 1990s, and over the same time period identified differential treatment of groups, such as lower requirements for highly skilled than lower skilled migrant workers. 27 These databases show a trend in migration regimes becoming more selective, rather than simply more or less restrictive across the board. A range of other studies describe varied patchworks of more or less open or selective pathways in different world regions.28 Examining regional contexts emphasizes the diverse forms that regular pathways take, and changes in approaches over time. Regional contexts also highlight insights into inequalities in terms of the selectiveness of different pathways and implementation gaps that impact how migration happens in practice. The European Union provides a particularly varied context, with many different pathways that are differently open or restrictive for different populations and in different member States. Citizens of European Union member States

approaches over time. Regional contexts also highlight insights into inequalities in terms of the selectiveness of different pathways and implementation gaps that impact how migration happens in practice. The European Union provides a particularly varied context, with many different pathways that are differently open or restrictive for different populations and in different member States. Citizens of European Union member States and European Free Trade Association (EFTA)29 member States enjoy rights of free movement and equal treatment across the Union. In 2023, there were an estimated 10.1 million so-called “free movers” in the European Union and EFTA (equal to 3.8% of the total European Union working-age population). Free movers is defined by the European Commission as “EU or EFTA citizens who reside in an EU or EFTA country other than their country 23 Mau et al., 2015; T orpey, 2000. 24 For example, in Executive Order 14161 of 20 January 2025, President Trump of the United States of America directed federal agencies of the United States Government to identify countries for which there should be issued a full or partial suspension on the admission of nationals from those countries (United States White House, 2025). 25 de Haas et al., 2018. 26 de Haas et al., 2015 and 2018. 27 Beine et al., 2015. 28 Acosta and van der Baaren, 2024; Dempster et al., 2021; Stefanescu, 2020. 29 The EFTA currently comprises four European countries: Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Liechtenstein. For examples, see Appendix A.7 WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2026 of citizenship”.30 So-called third-country nationals (people from a non-European Union country) are subject to varied access criteria in different member States: in some European Union member States, employment is the first reason for entry; in others, it is less significant than people entering for family reunification or for education. 31 At the regional level, the European Union has also created other opportunities for specific categories of migrants, such as the European Union Blue Card for highly skilled migrants.

reason for entry; in others, it is less significant than people entering for family reunification or for education. 31 At the regional level, the European Union has also created other opportunities for specific categories of migrants, such as the European Union Blue Card for highly skilled migrants. A mapping of regular pathways in the Americas has described a range of frameworks and initiatives including regional mobility and residence agreements, visa policies, circular labour migration mechanisms and, more recently, flexible humanitarian pathways.32 Regular pathways within the hemisphere also includes bilateral and multilateral agreements between States and measures determined by individual States that open pathways for particular populations or employment sectors for circular or permanent migration. 33 In Africa, free movement is a key policy objective of the African Union Commission, regional economic communities and national governments.34 It is estimated that more than 80 per cent of migrants from African countries stay on the continent.35 But there are gaps between policy and implementation at regional and national levels. As a result, mobility within the continent is regulated by a complex combination of regional agreements and national policies, laws and practices. 36 For example, several countries are expanding visa-free travel to holders of African passports, and others are establishing electronic travel authorization (ETA) systems to ease cross-border mobility. However, ETAs can actually increase the required documentation and expense for visa-exempt travellers, which compromises free movement in practice. 37 In Asia, States more frequently engage bilaterally to regulate the movement of migration, such as the border agreements between Nepal and India allowing free movement of Nepalese and Indian people. 38 That said, the existing regional body, ASEAN, has also played an important role in agenda setting on regular pathways and workers’ protection in the region.39 In Asia, 87 per cent of 21 million migrants between 1990 and 2013 came from other Asian countries.40 In 2024, intraregional migration was notable in Eastern and South-eastern Asia (18 million) and to a lesser extent Central and Southern Asia (around 13 million). 41 In the Pacific, migration governance is shifting from bilateral pathways to developments at a regional level. For several

other Asian countries.40 In 2024, intraregional migration was notable in Eastern and South-eastern Asia (18 million) and to a lesser extent Central and Southern Asia (around 13 million). 41 In the Pacific, migration governance is shifting from bilateral pathways to developments at a regional level. For several years, bilateral agreements such as the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme (between Australia and several countries of the South Pacific) and long-standing agreements between countries of