OIT - El Niño 2026-2027 and the world of work in Latin America and the Caribbean

 ILO Policy Brief 1 El Niño 2026–2027 and the world of work in Latin America and the Caribbean:

 Policy Brief 27 July 2026 El Niño 2026–2027 and the world of work in Latin America and the Caribbean: a causal chain from climate to employment and labour institutions Fabio Bertranou1

 El Niño 2026–2027 could disproportionately affect employment, incomes and working conditions in Latin America and the Caribbean.  The effects will vary depending on the sub-region, the productive sector and institutional capacity.  Informal, rural and outdoor workers will be among the most vulnerable.  The phenomenon could exacerbate food insecurity, child labour and occupational safety and health risks.  Social protection, social dialogue and proactive measures can mitigate the impacts on employment. Summary This policy brief examines the foreseeable effects of the 2026–2027 El Niño phenomenon on the world of work in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), in a context of cumulative external shocks of a geopolitical, energy and climate nature, which compound pre-existing structural vulnerabilities. Adopting a two-tiered framework of direct and indirect effects, based on the structural link between the environment and the world of work (Montt et al., 2018), the policy brief demonstrates how the disruption to rainfall patterns associated with El Niño affects the

1 Deputy Regional Director of the ILO for Latin America and the Caribbean. The views expressed are those of the author and do n ot necessarily reflect the views of the International Labour Organisation. The author would like to thank Guillermo Montt, Blanca Patiño, Carmen Bueno, Pilar Rodríguez, Loretta Favarato and Miguel Aguirre for their valuable comments and suggestions. availability of water resources and ecosystem services, generating knock-on effects on food security, public health, disaster risk and economic activity in sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, energy and logistics, thereby

Favarato and Miguel Aguirre for their valuable comments and suggestions. availability of water resources and ecosystem services, generating knock-on effects on food security, public health, disaster risk and economic activity in sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, energy and logistics, thereby generating inflationary pressures and affecting employment, incomes and even child labour. By linking this framework to the structural trends identified by the ILO for the region, the policy brief analyses the subregional heterogeneity of the expected impacts and identifies the most vulnerable subregions and countries. The labour market impacts of El Niño are not predetermined: they depend on the strength of labour institutions, the coverage of social protection systems and Key points ILO Policy Brief 2 El Niño 2026–2027 and the world of work in Latin America and the Caribbean:

the proactivity of public policies, including those aimed at climate change adaptation and disaster resilience.

I. A new climate shock in a structurally fragile region Against an international backdrop already disrupted by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising oil prices and the fragmentation of the multilateral order, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) now faces the additional threat of a moderate to strong El Niño event.

The World Meteorological Organization estimates an 80 per cent probability that El Niño will become established between June and August 2026, with a probability of close to 90 per cent that it will persist until the end of the year (WMO, 2026a). The International Research Centre on the El Niño Phenomenon (CIIFEN), based on data from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), forecasts that the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) for the August–October 2026 quarter will feature warm conditions with a 100 per cent probability, persisting until early 2027. The models indicate, with an 81 per cent probability, a very strong peak in intensity for the

Oscillation) for the August–October 2026 quarter will feature warm conditions with a 100 per cent probability, persisting until early 2027. The models indicate, with an 81 per cent probability, a very strong peak in intensity for the October–December 2026 period. (CIIFEN 2026). According to the World Economic Forum, the 2026–2027 event could constitute a “major systemic shock” to a global economy already struggling with fragile food systems, strained public finances and volatile energy markets (WEF, 2026). El Niño is not a new phenomenon for Latin America and the Caribbean. The region has a long history of exposure to its cycles: from droughts in the Central American Dry Corridor, floods along the Pacific coast of South America, disruption to the fishing sector in Peru and Ecuador, to electricity generation crises in Andean countries heavily reliant on hydroelectric power. Added to this recurring exposure is a further vulnerability of a more structural nature: the shift in temperature and precipitation patterns resulting from global climate change is already placing persistent strain on the agricultural, fisheries and forestry sectors, regardless of the specific occurrence of El Niño. As in previous episodes, the phenomenon is unfolding against a backdrop of overlapping vulnerabilities. The climatic phenomenon compounds the challenges facing a regional economy that is already grappling with inflationary pressures caused by the energy shock, fiscal constraints, labour markets characterised by high levels of informality, and incomplete social protection systems. In this context, El Niño acts as a risk multiplier on preexisting structural weaknesses, but it also highlights the need to manage climate adaptation from a just transition perspective. Proactive public policy measures, social protection and social dialogue are essential to prevent the costs of adjustment from falling disproportionately on the most vulnerable workers and regions. This policy brief examines the mechanisms through which El Niño 2026–2027 may affect the world of work in Latin America and the Caribbean, distinguishing between direct and indirect effects on the relationship between the

costs of adjustment from falling disproportionately on the most vulnerable workers and regions. This policy brief examines the mechanisms through which El Niño 2026–2027 may affect the world of work in Latin America and the Caribbean, distinguishing between direct and indirect effects on the relationship between the environment and the world of work. It identifies the most vulnerable sub-regions and countries, analyses the realistic possibilities for mitigation through public policies and labour institutions, and links this analysis to the structural labour trends that the ILO has identified for the region, explicitly incorporating the dimensions of climate change adaptation and disaster resilience.

II. Transmission mechanisms to the world of work: from direct climate effects to labour impacts Drawing on the conceptual framework developed by the ILO on the relationship between the environment and the world of work, it is possible to categorise the effects of El Niño on the world of work into two sequential levels. This framework distinguishes the channels through which environmental degradation affects employment, including dependence on both the extraction of natural resources and ecosystem services, exposure to environmental risks and hazards, and the deepening of inequalities (Montt et al., 2018). The first level is direct, occurring when El Niño alters rainfall patterns, causing droughts in some subregions, heavier rainfall on the west coast of South America, and more intense cyclones in the Pacific Ocean.

This climatic change, in turn, affects the quality and availability of water resources and ecosystem services on which a significant proportion of regional productive activity depends. The second level is indirect and stems from the first insofar as the impact on water resources and ecosystem services affects food security, public health, disaster risk and economic activity in sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, energy, and logistics and distribution, generating inflationary pressures due to higher prices for food and energy products. Economic activity is affected, and this ultimately has an impact on employment and income levels; in some cases, it could alter working conditions and the incidence of child labour. ILO Policy Brief 3

distribution, generating inflationary pressures due to higher prices for food and energy products. Economic activity is affected, and this ultimately has an impact on employment and income levels; in some cases, it could alter working conditions and the incidence of child labour. ILO Policy Brief 3 El Niño 2026–2027 and the world of work in Latin America and the Caribbean:

Direct effects: changes in rainfall patterns and ecosystem services The first level of impacts relates to the availability and quality of the natural resources that underpin productive activity. Droughts reduce the availability of water for irrigation, human consumption and hydroelectric power generation; extreme rainfall and flooding degrade soils, contaminate water sources and damage infrastructure; and the increased intensity of cyclonic events in the Pacific raises the risk of disasters in coastal areas. These effects do not necessarily require crops or productive assets to be destroyed in order to cause losses; rather, it is sufficient for water availability to be disrupted at critical times during flowering, sowing or harvesting, or for the flow regimes on which electricity generation depends to be altered, for labour productivity to be compromised even before any observable physical loss occurs. It is the lack of adaptation to these changes, rather than the climate phenomenon itself, that determines the scale of the losses, particularly in agriculture involving crops that are sensitive to rainfall at specific times of the year and in areas prone to flooding. From a just transition perspective, these impacts highlight that adaptation to climate change is not merely an environmental or productive challenge, but also a labour and social one. The ability of workers, enterprises and communities to anticipate, manage and adapt to these changes determines both the scale of economic losses and the quality of employment and the protection of livelihoods.

In this regard, adaptation requires investment in resilient infrastructure, skills development, social protection and social dialogue, so that climate-induced productive transformation does not exacerbate existing inequalities.

Indirect effects: food security, public health, disaster risk and sectoral

quality of employment and the protection of livelihoods. In this regard, adaptation requires investment in resilient infrastructure, skills development, social protection and social dialogue, so that climate-induced productive transformation does not exacerbate existing inequalities.

Indirect effects: food security, public health, disaster risk and sectoral economic activity Changes to water resources and ecosystem services trigger a chain of indirect effects on the world of work. In agriculture, the loss of production directly affects the livelihoods of millions of rural workers, many of whom are employed in the informal sector, with immediate effects on seasonal employment and household income. In the fisheries sector, changes in ocean currents and water temperature affect the availability of key species, with direct consequences for employment in both artisanal and industrial fisheries. In the energy sector, reduced river flows limit the availability of hydroelectric power generation, drive up energy costs and may result in power cuts or rationing, with direct effects on industrial production and the production costs of micro and small enterprises. In logistics and distribution, floods and cyclonic events damage roads, ports and other critical infrastructure, disrupting supply chains and leading to job losses in sectors such as construction and transport.

Across the board, the reduction in food and energy supplies generates inflationary pressures that erode the purchasing power of lower-income workers, who allocate a larger proportion of their expenditure to basic consumer goods and household energy costs. Public health and disaster risk. Climate conditions associated with El Niño could facilitate the spread of vector-borne diseases and increase the risks of malnutrition in contexts of severe food insecurity. Some studies link an increased risk of dengue to the El Niño phenomenon (Tian et al., 2025). Similarly, PAHO/WHO (2026) warns that El Niño can intensify the risks of vectorborne, water-borne and foodborne diseases, heat stress and disruptions to health services. For the world of work, this translates into higher rates of absenteeism, reduced

(2026) warns that El Niño can intensify the risks of vectorborne, water-borne and foodborne diseases, heat stress and disruptions to health services. For the world of work, this translates into higher rates of absenteeism, reduced productivity, greater pressure on health systems and a loss of income in households whose main source of livelihood is informal work. Added to this is the risk of disasters, such as the disruption to the operation of the Panama Canal should the water levels in Lakes Gatún and Alhajuela fall due to drought. This illustrates how El Niño can have labour market effects in sectors not typically classified as climate-vulnerable, demonstrating that exposure to climate-related disasters is a transmission channel that must be analysed across the board and not limited to primary sectors.

III. Subregional map of impacts: heterogeneity and differentiated vulnerability As in the case of the energy shock analysed in a previous policy brief (Bertranou, 2026a), the effects of El Niño are not uniform across LAC. The region exhibits marked subregional differences determined by the geography, productive structure, composition of the energy mix and institutional capacity of each country. The WMO identifies two main trends for LAC in 2026: drier and warmer conditions in Central America, northern South America and the Caribbean; and above-average rainfall in southeastern South America – southern Brazil, Paraguay, ILO Policy Brief 4

El Niño 2026–2027 and the world of work in Latin America and the Caribbean:

Uruguay and northern and north-eastern Argentina – (WMO, 2026a). Table 1 summarises this heterogeneity, incorporating it into the column on occupational and productive risks. The following section describes the most relevant risks in greater detail, alongside the risk of child labour, given its cross-cutting nature and its position further down the chain of effects.

incorporating it into the column on occupational and productive risks. The following section describes the most relevant risks in greater detail, alongside the risk of child labour, given its cross-cutting nature and its position further down the chain of effects.

 Table 1. El Niño 2026–2027: subregional impacts on the world of work in Latin America and the Caribbean Subregion Expected climate phenomenon Most exposed sectors and jobs Countries most at risk Occupational and productive risks 1/ Institutional conditions for the response Central American and Caribbean Dry Corridor Prolonged droughts, water shortages, heatwaves Agriculture (maize, beans, wheat, coffee, sugarcane), fisheries, tourism Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Haiti, Jamaica Loss of rural income, forced labour migration, increased informality. Risk of severe heat stress among outdoor workers. High levels of informal employment, limited coverage of agricultural insurance and unemployment protection. Limited regulations on temperature thresholds for work. Northern South America and north-eastern Brazil Drought, extreme heat, water shortages, risk of wildfires Livestock farming, forestry, agribusiness, hydroelectric power generation Venezuela, Colombia (Caribbean and Andean regions), north-east Brazil Rural unemployment, inflationary pressure, decline in real wages. Extreme temperatures during field work and firefighting, limited regulation of working hours. Colombia has previous experience. Venezuela: eroded institutional capacity. Limited experience with occupational health and safety (OHS) protocols in relation to heat. Southern Pacific coast (Ecuador

Extreme temperatures during field work and firefighting, limited regulation of working hours. Colombia has previous experience. Venezuela: eroded institutional capacity. Limited experience with occupational health and safety (OHS) protocols in relation to heat. Southern Pacific coast (Ecuador and Peru) Extreme rainfall, flooding, warming of coastal waters, mudslides, flash floods Fishing, coastal agriculture, infrastructure, construction Peru, Ecuador Destruction of productive infrastructure, collapse of the fishing industry and loss of workers’ assets. Loss of household income could increase the risk of child labour in vulnerable communities. Heat combined with extreme humidity raises the heat stress index. Accumulated experience in managing El Niño, but incomplete social protection systems. Occupational health and safety protocols for heat are limited to the formal sector. South-east South America Above-average rainfall, flooding, severe storms Agriculture, logistics, transport, public works Southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, northern and north-eastern Argentina Losses due to flooding in agricultural production, damage to transport infrastructure. Intense heat between rainfall events affects rural and construction workers. Greater fiscal and social protection capacity, albeit with restrictions. Brazil has occupational health and safety legislation setting temperature thresholds, though compliance is patchy in the informal sector. Mexico and Central America (Pacific) Rainfall deficit and increased cyclonic activity in the Pacific Seasonal agriculture, coastal tourism, fishing, maquiladora industry Mexico (south and south-east), Costa Rica, Panama Loss of subsistence crops; vulnerability of informal workers in

increased cyclonic activity in the Pacific Seasonal agriculture, coastal tourism, fishing, maquiladora industry Mexico (south and south-east), Costa Rica, Panama Loss of subsistence crops; vulnerability of informal workers in coastal areas. Agricultural work in conditions of extreme heat without specific heat-related regulations. Mexico has social protection mechanisms in place, but coverage in rural areas is insufficient. Limited regulation of temperature thresholds for the agricultural sector. Countries with high reliance on hydroelectric power (Andean region) Decreased river flows, restrictions on electricity generation Manufacturing, mining, agribusiness, urban services Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela, Bolivia, Chile (centralsouthern) Rising energy costs, reduced productivity, inflationary pressure. Power cuts disrupt ventilation and cooling in factories and mines, increasing the risk of heat stress. In some countries, excessive rainfall could occur, which may counteract this effect, as was the case in Chile in July 2026. 1/ This is not an exhaustive list of occupational and production risks; it includes some of the main ones.

Source: own compilation based on WMO (2026b), IDB (2026), ILO ( 2024a), Montt et al. (2018).

Recent evidence confirms that these risks are developing against a backdrop of increasing climate exposure. The World Meteorological Organization has been documenting, for Latin America and the Caribbean, an intensification of extreme events associated with droughts, floods, heatwaves and wildfires, as well as significant economic losses and growing impacts on food security, water availability and livelihoods (WMO, 2026a). In this context, the 2026–2027 El Niño should not be

intensification of extreme events associated with droughts, floods, heatwaves and wildfires, as well as significant economic losses and growing impacts on food security, water availability and livelihoods (WMO, 2026a). In this context, the 2026–2027 El Niño should not be interpreted as an isolated episode, but rather as a factor ILO Policy Brief 5 El Niño 2026–2027 and the world of work in Latin America and the Caribbean:

that amplifies climate risk trends already observable in the region.

IV. El Niño and structural factors in the world of work: critical interactions The analysis of El Niño’s impact on the world of work in LAC gains greater depth when linked to the structural trends identified by the ILO for the region (Bertranou, 2026a, 2026b). Far from being an exogenous and temporary phenomenon, El Niño interacts with each of these trends in specific ways, amplifying their adverse effects and complicating policy responses. This section also examines, as part of the interaction with informality and demographic transition, two indirect effects of a social nature that are relevant to the labour and social dimensions: the risk of child labour and occupational health and safety risks associated with excessive heat and extreme weather events, such as torrential rain and flooding.

Informality. The most direct interaction is with structural informality. Almost half of workers in LAC are employed in informal jobs, without access to unemployment protection, contributory health insurance coverage or pension schemes (Bertranou and Gontero, 2025). It is precisely informal workers who are most directly exposed to El Niño, as they work in seasonal agriculture, smallscale fishing, construction and street commerce. All these sectors are at high risk from climate events, as they lack the institutional buffers that would help mitigate the shock.

Child labour: risk that progress could be reversed as social conditions deteriorate. A particularly worrying

scale fishing, construction and street commerce. All these sectors are at high risk from climate events, as they lack the institutional buffers that would help mitigate the shock.

Child labour: risk that progress could be reversed as social conditions deteriorate. A particularly worrying effect is the risk of a reversal of the progress made in reducing child labour. Historical evidence shows that climate shocks, by eroding household incomes and destroying rural livelihoods, act as triggers for child labour. Households living in poverty resort to employing children and adolescents as a survival mechanism before the loss of adult income. The ILO has documented this interaction in detail: when climate crises increase the economic vulnerability of rural households, they reduce access to education because schools are damaged or children are forced to work instead of attending.

Hazardous forms of child labour may also increase, particularly in agriculture, fishing and informal waste collection activities (ILO, 2023b). Furthermore, these impacts can exacerbate pre-existing gender inequalities by increasing the burden of domestic and care work borne by girls in contexts of water scarcity, food insecurity, illness or disruption to basic and educational services (ILO, 2023c; UN Women, 2023). In this context, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), which had achieved significant reductions in child labour rates over the past two decades, faces a real risk that El Niño will reverse these gains, particularly in the geographical areas and communities most vulnerable to the effects of this meteorological phenomenon.

Occupational safety and health: excessive heat as an emerging risk. El Niño 2026–2027 will intensify heatwaves across vast sub-regions of LAC, with direct consequences for workers’ safety and health. This risk disproportionately affects those engaged in outdoor work (particularly in agriculture, construction, fishing and waste management) and informal workers, who lack the protective measures that typically exist in formal settings. These include regulated rest breaks, access to water and cooling facilities, and monitoring of environmental working

affects those engaged in outdoor work (particularly in agriculture, construction, fishing and waste management) and informal workers, who lack the protective measures that typically exist in formal settings. These include regulated rest breaks, access to water and cooling facilities, and monitoring of environmental working conditions. The ILO’s global report Ensuring safety and health at work in a changing climate (ILO, 2024a) documents the effects of excessive heat on health and labour productivity, highlighting that heat stress causes fatigue, accidents, chronic illnesses and premature deaths. For Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), where temperatures during El Niño episodes can exceed occupational safety thresholds in tropical and subtropical zones by several degrees, the risk is immediate. In addition to heat stress, climatic conditions relating to temperature and rainfall can lead to an increase in communicable diseases, such as dengue. The significance of this risk has recently been reaffirmed by the ILO Meeting of Experts on Occupational Safety and Health in Extreme Weather Events and Changing Weather Patterns (ILO, 2026), which recognised the need to strengthen national OSH frameworks before risks associated with extreme heat, floods, droughts, wildfires and other climate-related events. Key measures highlighted include the establishment of evidence-based thresholds for occupational exposure, the strengthening of occupational health surveillance systems, and the integration of occupational safety and health into disaster preparedness and response systems. Demographic transition. The ageing of the workforce in contexts of high informality exacerbates vulnerability. Older workers in agricultural or subsistence activities have ILO Policy Brief 6 El Niño 2026–2027 and the world of work in Latin America and the Caribbean:

less capacity for rapid occupational retraining when El Niño destroys their livelihoods. Internal labour migration, which is one of the historical mechanisms for adjusting to El Niño, becomes more difficult for those with family care responsibilities or for those with fewer job opportunities due to lower levels of education.

less capacity for rapid occupational retraining when El Niño destroys their livelihoods. Internal labour migration, which is one of the historical mechanisms for adjusting to El Niño, becomes more difficult for those with family care responsibilities or for those with fewer job opportunities due to lower levels of education. Technological change and artificial intelligence (AI). Digitalisation and AI could, in theory, improve the capacity to anticipate and respond to El Niño through early warning systems, crop yield prediction models, and employment intermediation platforms in situations of displacement. However, persistent digital divides in rural areas and among informal workers severely limit this capacity. The workers most exposed to El Niño are also the least connected and those with the least access to the technological tools that could protect them. A green and productive transition. El Niño can be both an obstacle and a catalyst for the energy transition. On the one hand, reduced river flows affect hydroelectric generation – the dominant source of clean energy in several Andean countries – and may delay renewable energy expansion plans due to financing problems linked to the fiscal shock. On the other hand, the energy crisis resulting from El Niño may strengthen the case for diversifying the energy mix towards solar and wind power – technologies that do not depend on water – thereby accelerating the transition towards more climate-resilient sources in the medium term. However, productive and energy diversification driven by climate resilience criteria may also lead to sectoral reallocation of employment and territorial transformations that require deliberate management. A just transition involves anticipating these changes through policies to develop skills, support retraining, strengthen social protection and promote social dialogue, with particular attention to workers in sectors highly exposed to climate risks and to local economies dependent on waterand ecosystem-sensitive activities. A central component of this transition, often underestimated in comparison with mitigation, is adaptation. The latest evidence from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights the growing importance of investment in adaptation as a prerequisite for reducing losses

activities. A central component of this transition, often underestimated in comparison with mitigation, is adaptation. The latest evidence from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights the growing importance of investment in adaptation as a prerequisite for reducing losses associated with extreme weather events. Thus, El Niño 2026–2027 could act as a catalyst for greater investment in adaptation, in sectors such as water infrastructure, coastal protection and early warning systems. Governance and democracy. El Niño shocks tend to generate intense political pressures through social demands for emergency aid, conflicts over access to water, and protests against rising food prices. In contexts characterised by weak labour institutions and limited democratic space, these conflicts can lead to governance crises. Tripartite social dialogue between the government, employers’ organizations and workers’ organizations could help to manage the distributional impacts of the phenomenon in a legitimate manner and improve the management of mitigation and adaptation measures. It is also worth noting that, at national level, the region’s technical and economic institutions have begun to incorporate the 2026–2027 El Niño phenomenon into their analyses, albeit with a predominantly macroeconomic and sectoral focus, and yet without a more detailed analysis o