UNICEF - 2026–2027 El Niño Practical Guidance for the Education Sector

EL NIÑO

© UNICEF/UNI931495/Guy Taylor.

PRACTICAL GUIDANCE FOR

THE EDUCATION SECTOR

2026–2027 Preparedness and Anticipatory Action for Resilient Education SystemsPurpose GUIDING PRINCIPLES This guidance is underpinned by the following principles: Government leadership and nationally led coordination Risk-informed planning and anticipatory action Equity, inclusion and do no harm Child safeguarding Localisation and community engagement Multi-sector coordination Climate resilience and sustainability Financing and costed action planning to support preparedness, anticipatory action, response and recovery Complementarity and coherence across national plans, global frameworks, sectors and partners Evidence-informed decision-making to guide prioritization, planning and resource allocation PREPARE Build readiness and reduce risks ACT EARL Y T ake anticipatory action RESPOND Protect learning and wellbeing RECOVER Build back better and more resilient education systems This guidance provides practical recommendations to support governments, education sector partners and coordination mechanisms in strengthening preparedness, anticipatory action, response and recovery for El Niño-related risks affecting education. It is intended for Ministries of Education, education authorities, education clusters, Local Education Groups (LEGs), UN agencies, NGOs, donors and other education stakeholders working to protect learning continuity and the wellbeing of children before, during and after El Niño-related hazards. Recognising that responsibilities differ across contexts, the guidance promotes coordinated action under government leadership, in collaboration with communities and across sectors, including disaster risk management, health, WASH, nutrition, child protection and social protection partners. It complements existing global standards and guidance on education in emergencies, school safety and anticipatory action, and should be used alongside national and contextualized preparedness plans, contingency plans and relevant inter-agency frameworks. The guidance also aims to support the identification of priority preparedness and anticipatory actions, associated resource requirements and opportunities for alignment and complementarity across sectors and partners, thereby helping to strengthen coordinated planning, financing and implementation

alongside national and contextualized preparedness plans, contingency plans and relevant inter-agency frameworks. The guidance also aims to support the identification of priority preparedness and anticipatory actions, associated resource requirements and opportunities for alignment and complementarity across sectors and partners, thereby helping to strengthen coordinated planning, financing and implementation before, during and after El Niño-related shocks. Positioned within the existing global architecture for education in emergencies, disaster risk reduction and anticipatory action, the guidance is intended to operationalize and supplement existing frameworks by translating them into practical, context-specific actions for the education sector. It promotes coherence across humanitarian, development and climate-related initiatives, ensuring that education preparedness and response efforts are mutually reinforcing and contribute to more resilient education systems. © UNICEF/UNI949445/Tsiory Ny Aina Andriantsoarana. 2 2026–2027 El Niño Practical Guidance for the Education SectorWhat is El Niño? El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon caused by unusual warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This warming alters global weather patterns and can increase the likelihood of extreme weather events in different parts of the world. El Niño events usually last between 9–12 months, with effects varying significantly by location. Some areas may experience severe heatwaves, droughts or wildfires, while others may experience floods, landslides and tropical storms (see typical El Niño impacts illustrated below). For more detailed information, see the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and the WMO Global Seasonal Climate Outlook. Practical resources on anticipatory action are also available through the Anticipation Hub. Jul-Apr Sep-Mar Jul-Jan Jul-Nov Jul-Mar Jun-Jan

Jan-Apr Nov-Apr Sep-Jan Jan-MayJun-Apr Apr-Jun JunMar Jul-Dec Nov-Mar Jan-Apr Jun-Sep Nov-Feb Jun-Sep Apr-Oct Dec-MarJun-Oct Feb-Jun Jun-Oct Dec-Apr SepDec Jul-Sep Nov-Mar Sep-Jan Oct-Dec Jan-Apr For more information on El Niño and La Niña: http://iri.columbia.edu/enso

Sources:

1. Lenssen, Goddard and Mason, 2020. Seasonal Forecast Skill of ENSO Teleconnection Maps. Weather Forecasting, 2387–2406

2. Mason and Goddard, 2001. Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 82, 619-638

DryWet El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific are known to shift rainfall patterns in many different parts of the world. The regions and seasons shown on the map below indicate typical but not guaranteed impacts of El Niño. EL NIÑO AND RAINFALL /climatesociety @climatesociety El Niño and Rainfall El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific are known to shift rainfall patterns in many different parts of the world. Although they vary somewhat from one El Niño to the next, the strongest shifts remain fairly consistent in the regions and seasons shown on the map below.

Sources: Ropelewski, C. F . and M. S. Halpert, 1989: Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 2, 268–284.

Mason and Goddard, 2001. Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 82, 619–638. The current El Niño event developed in mid-2026 and is now strengthening. Forecasts indicate a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026–27, with a 75% chance that the October–December 2026 season could reach historic strength, exceeding the intensity of previous El Niño events. The World Meteorological Organization’s latest

90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026–27, with a 75% chance that the October–December 2026 season could reach historic strength, exceeding the intensity of previous El Niño events. The World Meteorological Organization’s latest seasonal outlook projects further intensification, with the event expected to peak around November–December 2026. Against exceptionally high global ocean and land surface temperatures, the effects could be more severe than in previous events and are likely to continue into 2027 and, in some contexts, beyond. The nature and timing of these effects will vary considerably by region and hazard, with existing conflict, economic shocks and reduced humanitarian funding potentially further compounding their effects. No two El Niño events are the same, underscoring the importance of contextspecific preparedness and early action. How El Niño affects the climate

WARMER PACIFIC

OCEAN

WEA THER

PA TTERNS SHIFT

INCREASED RISK

OF EXTREME

WEA THER 9-12

MONTHS Unusual warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean T ypical duration of an El Niño event More frequent and severe weather events in different regions Alters global atmospheric circulation 3 2026–2027 El Niño Practical Guidance for the Education SectorWhat are the likely impacts on education? El Niño is unfolding against exceptionally high levels of climate risk and vulnerability. An estimated 1.1 billion children — nearly half of the world’s children — are already exposed to at least three overlapping climate hazards, compounding risks to their health, education and survival.1 Forecast El Niño conditions are expected to intensify pressures on children and their families. Food insecurity, nutrition deterioration, disease outbreaks, heat stress, displacement and disruption to basic services can all affect children’s ability to access education and continue learning. For detailed country-level analysis, visit An Inter-Agency

Forecast El Niño conditions are expected to intensify pressures on children and their families. Food insecurity, nutrition deterioration, disease outbreaks, heat stress, displacement and disruption to basic services can all affect children’s ability to access education and continue learning. For detailed country-level analysis, visit An Inter-Agency Report of the Global ENSO Analysis Cell: El Niño Status and Humanitarian Outlook | OCHA. Extreme weather events can disrupt education and learning directly through damage to schools, displacement and disrupted transport, and indirectly through food insecurity, water scarcity, illness and livelihood pressures. These shocks can reduce attendance and instructional time, interrupt learning, disrupt teaching, affect teacher attendance and place additional pressure on host schools. Where El Niño-related hazards coincide with conflict, displacement or other crises, impacts on children’s learning and already strained education systems may be compounded. The consequences go beyond temporary disruption. Repeated or prolonged interruptions can lead to learning loss, widen inequalities and make it harder for children already behind to catch up. Stress and deteriorating household conditions can further affect concentration, wellbeing and learning. Disruptions may also affect assessments, progression and completion, while prolonged absence increases the risk that the most vulnerable children may not return to school. Nearly half of the world’s children are already exposed to at least three overlapping climate hazards.

1.1 BILLION

CHILDREN

1. UNICEF , The Children’s Climate Risk Report 2026, UNICEF , 2026.

Education is not only affected by El Niño – it must be part of the response that keeps children safe. It is a critical platform for preparedness, early warning, risk communication and protecting children before, during and after climate-related shocks.

SCHOOL

DAMAGE

DISPLACEMENT WA TER

SCARCITY

FOOD

INSECURITY

© Save the Children Keeping children learning safely during and after crises is therefore a critical protection and recovery measure. Education continuity provides stability and routine, supports mental health and psychosocial wellbeing, helps sustain

SCHOOL

DAMAGE

DISPLACEMENT WA TER

SCARCITY

FOOD

INSECURITY

© Save the Children Keeping children learning safely during and after crises is therefore a critical protection and recovery measure. Education continuity provides stability and routine, supports mental health and psychosocial wellbeing, helps sustain learning and progression, and reduces protection risks when children are out of school. 4 2026–2027 El Niño Practical Guidance for the Education SectorHow to advocate for education as part of El Niño preparedness? El Niño is not only an education emergency – it is a predictable climate risk. Seasonal forecasts provide a window to act before hazards occur, reducing disruption to learning and protecting children, teachers and education systems. Education is lifesaving and life-changing – it protects children now while safeguarding their futures. Governments, education sector partners and coordination mechanisms should: For more advocacy points on the inclusion of Education in Anticipatory Action (AA) refer to the Global Education Cluster’s Guidance on AA. Effective preparedness and anticipatory action require coordinated planning across government, humanitarian and development partners. Coordination should build on existing national mechanisms and avoid creating parallel structures. Roles and coordination arrangements will vary by country context but may typically include: • Ministries of Education: Lead education sector preparedness, contingency planning, coordination and learning continuity planning. • National Disaster Management Authorities: Coordinate multi-sector preparedness, early warning, disaster response and resilience-building across government. • National Meteorological and Hydrological Services: Provide seasonal forecasts, early warning information and technical advice to inform risk analysis and triggerbased decision-making. • Education Clusters (where activated): Coordinate humanitarian education preparedness, anticipatory action and response among education partners. • Local Education Groups: Support alignment between humanitarian and development partners and strengthen integration of preparedness into education sector planning. Coordination for El Niño Preparedness Position education as an essential part of childcentred climate preparedness and anticipatory action, not only response. Strengthen cross-sector coordination with

humanitarian and development partners and strengthen integration of preparedness into education sector planning. Coordination for El Niño Preparedness Position education as an essential part of childcentred climate preparedness and anticipatory action, not only response. Strengthen cross-sector coordination with child protection, WASH, health, nutrition, social protection and disaster risk management partners, meteorological services and other relevant partners to support coordinated preparedness, anticipatory action and recovery.Advocate for timely and predictable financing to enable preparedness and anticipatory action before hazards occur. Promote risk-informed education systems, including safer schools and disaster risk reduction in policies, plans and curricula.Promote the inclusion of education in national preparedness, anticipatory action, humanitarian and disaster risk financing mechanisms. Plan for recovery before impacts fully unfold, including accelerated learning, psychosocial support and rapid resumption of education services.Advocate for early financing before hazards occur and investment in climate-resilient education systems through adaptation and disaster risk financing to strengthen long-term resilience. Prioritize the most vulnerable learners, including girls, displaced children, children with disabilities and other marginalised groups. Integrate risks related to El Niño into education sector planning, contingency plans and learning continuity arrangements. Use programme evidence and children’s experiences to advocate for education in national preparedness, adaptation and climate financing processes. 1 6 2 7 3 8 4 9 5 10 5 2026–2027 El Niño Practical Guidance for the Education Sector• Humanitarian Country T eams and inter-sector coordination mechanisms: Ensure education is reflected in multi-sector preparedness and anticipatory action planning. • Anticipatory Action Working Groups (where established): Coordinate forecast-based planning, trigger development, financing and activation of anticipatory actions across sectors. • Communities, parents and caregivers: Support risk identification, preparedness and response efforts at community level, promote school attendance and learning continuity, and contribute to protecting

Coordinate forecast-based planning, trigger development, financing and activation of anticipatory actions across sectors. • Communities, parents and caregivers: Support risk identification, preparedness and response efforts at community level, promote school attendance and learning continuity, and contribute to protecting children’s wellbeing before, during and after El Niñorelated hazards. Strong coordination across these mechanisms helps ensure preparedness actions are complementary, resources are used efficiently and learning continuity remains central to national and multi-sector preparedness efforts. When should we act? Preparing for El Niño is not a single activity – it is a process that starts well before impacts are expected and continues as forecasts become more certain. Effective El Niño risk management combines preparedness and anticipatory action, followed by response and recovery if hazards occur. El Niño impacts may emerge or intensify at different times across regions and may continue beyond the peak of the climate event as households, livelihoods and essential services come under sustained pressure. Education preparedness and monitoring should therefore continue beyond the immediate hazard period and, where risks remain elevated, into 2027, with actions adapted as the situation and forecasts evolve. The window for action is now. Although El Niño is already underway, significant opportunities remain to reduce risks before peak seasonal impacts in many regions. Education authorities and partners should use the available forecast window to establish early warning systems and pre-defined triggers, complete priority preparedness measures, pre-position essential supplies, confirm contingency arrangements and strengthen coordination before impacts escalate. From early action to recovery

BEFORE

(Preparedness and anticipatory action) • Monitor forecasts • Activate earlywarning triggers • Implement preparedness measures • Pre-position supplies • Confirm contingency arrangements AFTER (Recovery) • Resume education services • Provide accelerated learning • Support psychosocial wellbeing • Strengthen resilience for the future

DURING

(Response)

• Confirm contingency arrangements

AFTER (Recovery) • Resume education services • Provide accelerated learning • Support psychosocial wellbeing • Strengthen resilience for the future

DURING

(Response) • Ensure learning continuity • Protect children • Adapt to evolving needs Monitoring, coordination and adaptation continue beyond the peak of the event In many regions, impacts may continue into 2027. Preparedness refers to the actions taken before seasonal forecasts are available to strengthen the education system’s capacity to anticipate, prepare for and respond to El Niñorelated risks. Too often, education is sidelined in emergency preparedness and response, yet it is lifesaving and lifechanging — protecting children, supporting their wellbeing and safeguarding their learning and futures. These investments ensure that systems, plans and partnerships are already in place, allowing rapid action when credible forecasts indicate an increased risk of El Niño impacts. Preparedness actions strengthen education systems to be more resilient over the long term and better positioned to act and adapt quickly. Preparedness includes strengthening not only operational capacities, but also the systems, policies, governance, financing and institutional arrangements needed to manage climate-related risks. This includes integrating El Niño and other climate risks into education sector planning, contingency planning, school safety frameworks, coordination mechanisms and financing arrangements, ensuring that education systems are better positioned to anticipate, adapt and respond to future shocks.

PREPAREDNESS: Strengthen systems and prepare for hazards1. 6 2026–2027 El Niño Practical Guidance for the Education SectorPreparedness should also include identifying and securing financing mechanisms, including contingency funds, forecast-based financing and pre-agreed funding arrangements, to enable timely implementation of anticipatory actions once forecast thresholds are reached.

Preparedness should also strengthen community engagement by supporting schools, strengthening the preparedness and wellbeing of teachers and supporting children, parents and school management committees to

funds, forecast-based financing and pre-agreed funding arrangements, to enable timely implementation of anticipatory actions once forecast thresholds are reached. Preparedness should also strengthen community engagement by supporting schools, strengthening the preparedness and wellbeing of teachers and supporting children, parents and school management committees to understand local risks, participate in preparedness planning and contribute to early warning and learning continuity arrangements.

ANTICIPA TORY ACTION: Build readiness in case of predictable risks and activate once forecast triggers are reached Anticipatory action uses forecast information to reduce the expected impacts of El Niño before hazards occur. It is implemented in two stages: Readiness and Activation.

Conduct risk assessments Identify schools, learners and teachers most at risk Develop and update contingency and learning continuity plans Establish forecast triggers and standard operating procedures for anticipatory action and validate these with national forecasting agencies Strengthen coordination across education and other sectors Build the capacity of education authorities, teachers and school communities Identify resources, partners and financing needed for early action 2.

EDUCA TION ANTICIPA TORY ACTION: ACT EARL Y , PROTECT LEARNING Use forecasts. Act before impacts. Keep children safely learning.

1. PREPAREDNESS 2. READINESS 3. ACTI V A TION Before forecasts are available Strengthen systems and prepare for hazards • Assess risks and identify who is most at risk • Develop contingency and learning continuity plans • Establish forecast triggers and SOPs • Build capacity and strengthen coordination • Identify resources and financing When forecasts indicate elevated risk Build readiness in case of predictable risks • Validate forecast triggers • Confirm target schools and beneficiaries • Finalise operational plans • Pre-position supplies and materials • Mobilise partners and resources • Teach children hazardspecific lifesaving skills When forecast trigger thresholds are reached Act early to reduce impacts before hazards • Protect schools, infrastructure and learning materials • Activate learning continuity measures • Provide cash or in-kind assistance

• Mobilise partners and resources • Teach children hazardspecific lifesaving skills When forecast trigger thresholds are reached Act early to reduce impacts before hazards • Protect schools, infrastructure and learning materials • Activate learning continuity measures • Provide cash or in-kind assistance • Deliver early warning and lifesaving messages • Support children’s health, nutrition and wellbeing

4. LEARNING

PROTECTED

Our Desired Outcome Children continue learning safely Reduced disruption to learning Children are safe, healthy and supported Lower protection risks Faster recovery and greater resilience HAZARD OCCURS T ypical preparedness actions 7 2026–2027 El Niño Practical Guidance for the Education SectorAnticipatory action readiness When seasonal forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of El Niño impacts, preparedness transitions into anticipatory action readiness. During this stage, operational arrangements are finalised to ensure anticipatory actions can be implemented rapidly if forecast trigger thresholds are reached. Readiness focuses on ensuring that the final plans, resources, coordination mechanisms and operational processes are in place and can be easily deployed to risk areas so there is no delay in taking early action. Preparedness and anticipatory action should be based on the best available forecast information while recognising forecast uncertainty and updating actions as forecasts evolve. Anticipatory action activation Once the agreed forecast trigger thresholds are expected to be reached, planned anticipatory actions are activated. These anticipatory actions are specific pre-agreed measures implemented before the expected hazard occurs. They are designed to immediately reduce the anticipated impact of extreme weather events such as drought, flooding, storms, extreme heat or displacement on children, teachers and education systems. The window of opportunity for anticipatory action is often short, so such activation measures should already be planned, costed and ready for immediate implementation. Early action during this period helps reduce disruption to education and protect the learning, wellbeing and safety of children and teachers before the worst impacts occur.

education systems. The window of opportunity for anticipatory action is often short, so such activation measures should already be planned, costed and ready for immediate implementation. Early action during this period helps reduce disruption to education and protect the learning, wellbeing and safety of children and teachers before the worst impacts occur. Validate forecast triggers Confirm target schools and beneficiaries Finalise learning continuity arrangements Pre-position supplies and materials Mobilise partners and resources Complete operational planning for rapid implementation Teach children hazard-specific lifesaving knowledge T ypical activation actions Protect schools, infrastructure and learning materials Activate learning continuity measures Provide cash or in-kind assistance to learners, schools or teachers Disseminate early warning and lifesaving messages Implement targeted interventions to help children continue learning safely during drought, flooding, storms, extreme heat or displacement RESPONSE AND RECOVERY: Restore learning and build back better Response and recovery begin once hazards have occurred and focus on restoring safe access to learning, supporting children’s wellbeing and strengthening the resilience of education systems to future shocks. Recovery should begin as early as possible and include measures that reduce future risk rather than simply restoring pre-existing conditions.

Key actions may include: Conduct rapid education needs and damage assessments.

Restore safe access to learning through temporary or rehabilitated learning spaces. Provide accelerated learning, catch-up programmes and psychosocial support. Plan and implement safe, inclusive return-to-school and re-enrolment campaigns following disruptions, with targeted outreach to children at risk of dropout. 3. T ypical readiness actions Preparedness and anticipatory action are complementary parts of the same approach. Preparedness builds the systems, capacities and plans before forecasts are available. Readiness ensures those plans are operational once forecasts indicate elevated risk. Activation implements agreed early actions once forecast thresholds are reached, before impacts occur. Strong preparedness enables timely anticipatory action, helping reduce disruption to learning and better protect children’s education, wellbeing and safety. 8 2026–2027 El Niño Practical Guidance for the Education SectorRepair and reconstruct education infrastructure using climate informed, resilient and environmentally responsible approaches and materials.

Strong preparedness enables timely anticipatory action, helping reduce disruption to learning and better protect children’s education, wellbeing and safety. 8 2026–2027 El Niño Practical Guidance for the Education SectorRepair and reconstruct education infrastructure using climate informed, resilient and environmentally responsible approaches and materials. Restore teaching and learning materials, education records and education management systems. Integrate age-appropriate climate, disaster risk reduction and lifesaving knowledge into curricula, teaching and learning materials and teacher development to strengthen children’s capacity to understand and respond to future climate-related hazards. Review lessons learned and strengthen preparedness plans for future El Niño events. Effective preparedness requires coordinated action across sectors. Education partners should work closely with WASH, Health, Nutrition, Child Protection, Social Protection, Disaster Risk Management, meteorological services and local authorities to ensure preparedness and anticipatory actions are aligned and mutually reinforcing. © Save the Children Zimbabwe/ Cynthia Chimbunde 9 2026–2027 El Niño Practical Guidance for the Education SectorHazard-Specific impacts and actions for education Before implementing hazard-specific preparedness actions, education sector partners should: Integrate El Niño and climate risks into education sector plans, contingency plans and learning continuity strategies. Strengthen coordination mechanisms with disaster management authorities and other sectors, including WASH, Health, Nutrition, Child Protection and Social Protection. Review contingency financing arrangements to enable timely anticipatory action. Identify and, where possible, prearrange funding for priority preparedness and rapid response measures, including mechanisms that can be released when agreed triggers are reached. Strengthen education management information systems (EMIS), early warning systems and risk monitoring to support timely decision-making and action. Regularly update risk assessments, priority locations and exposed schools as forecasts and other risk information evolve. Risk assessments should distinguish between direct climate hazards (“climate hazards”) and other hazards, impacts and risks that are climate-related or may be influenced or exacerbated by climate conditions. Use this information to target preparedness and anticipatory actions to the children, schools and communities most at risk

CLIMATERELATED

HAZARDS/

SHOCKS

(“climate hazards”) and other hazards, impacts and risks that are climate-related or may be influenced or exacerbated by climate conditions. Use this information to target preparedness and anticipatory actions to the children, schools and communities most at risk

CLIMATERELATED

HAZARDS/

SHOCKS

IMPACT ON

EDUCATION PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS Before seasonal forecasts are available ANTICIPATORY ACTION READINESS ACTIONS Once seasonal forecasts predict hazards ACTIVATION ACTIONS Once thresholds are reached Extreme heat • School closures or shortened school days reduce learning time • Heat stress affects student and teacher health, concentration and wellbeing, increasing absenteeism and dropouts • Reduced ability to access school in areas with long walking distances • Heatwaves cause disproportionate impacts in facilities without ventilation or cooling • Conduct heat risk assessments and identify high-risk schools • Develop sector-level heatrelated school safety and learning continuity plans • Integrate extreme heat into national contingency plans and A