UNICEF - El futuro de la infancia en un mundo en transformación inglés

The Future of Childhood The State of the World’s Children 2024 in a Changing Worldi The State of the World’s Children 2024 Foreword In a world facing so many present-day challenges, one might ask why UNICEF is devoting this edition of The State of the World’s Children to the future, specifically to the world in which children will live in 2050. To answer that question, it is worth revisiting the first edition of this report, published in 1980. From that report, the words of one of my predecessors, James P . Grant, UNICEF’s third Executive Director and global leader of the child survival agenda, are worth quoting at length: “An important part of UNICEF’s task is to monitor the trends which affect the world’s children, to extrapolate those trends into a picture of the future, to re-examine them in order to determine what kinds of changes in the present might improve the future, and to allocate its resources to the points of maximum leverage in bringing those changes about.” In the almost 45 years since those words were written, UNICEF’s mission has not changed: We continue to monitor the trends that are shaping and reshaping the lives of children and young people, and we go on working and advocating for change today with the aim of building a better world for the children and young people of tomorrow. This report picks up the baton of Jim Grant’s 1980 report and carries it forward. The theme of that earlier report was ‘From here to 2000’; the theme of ours is ‘From here to 2050’. In many ways, the world of 2050 will be very different from today’s. It will be a world where, in many high-income countries, children will account for a relatively small share of the population. As we move further into the twenty-first century, the future of childhood will increasingly be in Africa: By 2100, there will be more children on the African continent than anywhere else in the world. Are we ready for such a world? Africa has made important gains for children in recent decades, but major issues persist, particularly the learning crisis. If Africa does not do

increasingly be in Africa: By 2100, there will be more children on the African continent than anywhere else in the world. Are we ready for such a world? Africa has made important gains for children in recent decades, but major issues persist, particularly the learning crisis. If Africa does not do more to develop the skills and enormous potential of its children and young people, it risks squandering the possibility of the demographic dividend. Recruiting and training more teachers and equipping them and their students with advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), may help bridge these learning gaps by 2050. But that potential has not yet been realized. The challenges facing children and their communities will not be confined to a single continent – they will be global. Overcoming them – and ensuring a bright, secure future for every child – will be made still more challenging by another of the megatrends detailed in this report: the climate and environmental crises. Sadly, this is not just a future problem: UNICEF estimates that in recent years, the equivalent of about 20,000 children a day worldwide have been displaced by floods and storms exacerbated by climate change. These numbers will only grow, as will the many other deadly impacts of climate change on children’s health and development and on their communities. Catherine Russell UNICEF Executive DirectorForeword ii The world already knows what it needs to do to limit the worst impacts of climate change. Youth leaders have been forceful – and rightly so – in urging national leaders to stick to their climate commitments. To ignore those calls is to betray the futures of children and young people. We cannot allow that to happen. Even if the world of 2050 is different from today’s, and it will be, it also risks being more of the same. We continue to live in a world where children’s lives are being devastated by war, conflict and violence – in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gaza, Haiti, Lebanon, Myanmar, the Sudan, Ukraine and others. The list is depressingly long. We also continue to live in a world where far too many children suffer poverty and discrimination and where

war, conflict and violence – in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gaza, Haiti, Lebanon, Myanmar, the Sudan, Ukraine and others. The list is depressingly long. We also continue to live in a world where far too many children suffer poverty and discrimination and where women and girls are subjected to gender-based and sexual violence and deprived of opportunities to meet their full potential. These multiple assaults on the well-being, security and dreams of children fly in the face of commitments made in the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC), adopted exactly 35 years ago. By ratifying that framework, the world’s leaders acknowledged that all children have inalienable rights. And they promised that their governments would protect and uphold those rights. Sadly, those promises often fall far short. In the face of such headwinds, it is easy to feel defeated. But nothing is set in stone. The gloomiest scenarios are not inevitable. We can set a course that will take us to a better world for our children and young people. We know from the tangible progress we have achieved so far that we can build a better world for children. With resolve and global cooperation, we can shape a future where every child is healthy, educated and protected. Our children deserve no less.iii The State of the World’s Children 2024 Contents Foreword i Introduction: From here to 2050 1 Chapter 1: Three megatrends shaping children’s futures 6 Demographic transition 8 The climate and environmental crises 14 Frontier technologies 18 Chapter 2: Children in the world of 2050 24 Child survival and life expectancy 27 Socioeconomic conditions 29 Education 33 Gender equality 38 Conflict 38 Urbanization 40 Climate and environmental hazards 43 Chapter 3: The future is ours to shape 45 How do we reach the best scenario for children? 46 Meeting the megatrends 48 Conclusion 52 Where to start? 52 Endnotes 55 Technical annex 60 Acknowledgements 68Introduction 1 Introduction From here to 20502 The State of the World’s Children 2024

How do we reach the best scenario for children? 46 Meeting the megatrends 48 Conclusion 52 Where to start? 52 Endnotes 55 Technical annex 60 Acknowledgements 68Introduction 1 Introduction From here to 20502 The State of the World’s Children 2024 The future is now. The carbon we pour into our atmosphere today will shape the climate of the future. The technologies we develop today – and the policies we develop to govern them – will help shape how we learn, work and communicate. They will affect the well-being of our children. The demographic trends of today will help shape the population patterns of societies tomorrow. So, the future is now – we are laying its foundations today. It is important that we ask ourselves: What will be in that future? What will the world be like for children in 2050? And what can we do today to ensure the best possible future for every child? These are the questions at the heart of this year’s The State of the World’s Children report. Megatrends transforming our world We cannot know for certain what the future holds. But we can examine the forces and trends shaping our world today and reflect on how they might shape the future. No list of these elements can be complete; after all, our world is complex, and so are the forces and trends shaping it. For example, in the years since the pandemic, a collision of political, social and economic trends has fuelled a global ‘polycrisis’ made up of intensifying challenges to democracy, fragmentation in the multilateral system and a debt crisis, which is “unsustainable and a recipe for social unrest”, according to United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres.1 Important commitments on many of these issues were made at the United Nations Summit of the Future in September 2024. The Pact for the Future, adopted at the Summit, states that the success of future generations is contingent on “eliminating the intergenerational transmission of poverty and hunger, inequality and injustice, and acknowledging the special challenges faced by the most vulnerable countries.”2

of the Future in September 2024. The Pact for the Future, adopted at the Summit, states that the success of future generations is contingent on “eliminating the intergenerational transmission of poverty and hunger, inequality and injustice, and acknowledging the special challenges faced by the most vulnerable countries.”2 From the long list of forces and trends shaping the world, this report focuses on three longterm, global megatrends: demographics, climate and environmental crises, and frontier technologies. These were chosen because UNICEF and other major actors – including other United Nations agencies and leading private sector analysts3 – believe they will be critically important in shaping the world for children (see Chapter 1) over the next quarter of a century. A global demographic transition is moving us towards a world where the number of children is plateauing – by the 2050s, the world will be home to about as many children as it is today, around 2.3 billion. In some societies, children will account for fewer than 1 in 10 members of the population, raising questions about their visibility and respect for their views and rights. In others, large populations of children and young people will offer potential demographic dividends. In the coming decades, urbanization will continue to rise. The second megatrend is the climate and environmental crises – a complex mix of crises involving climate change, pervasive pollution and biodiversity loss – that are already reshaping our world.4 Their impacts will only grow. For example, exposure to raised temperatures It is important that we ask ourselves: What will the world be like for children in 2050?Introduction 3 because of heatwaves poses a particular risk to children’s health and well-being. More children will be at risk of chronic respiratory problems like asthma and cardiovascular diseases. And they will be living in places at greater risk of exposure to droughts, cyclones and floods, where a lack of safe water and food could become the new normal. The final megatrend is frontier technologies, which will continue transforming whole swathes of our lives. Connectivity and digital skills could equip millions of children for the

floods, where a lack of safe water and food could become the new normal. The final megatrend is frontier technologies, which will continue transforming whole swathes of our lives. Connectivity and digital skills could equip millions of children for the economy of the future. Artificial intelligence (AI) and neurotechnology may drive sweeping change in education and health care. Green technologies have the potential to limit the worst impacts of climate change and support the transition to a low-carbon, more sustainable future. Vaccine and medical breakthroughs could save millions more children’s lives. But these visions of technology’s upsides can only be realized with the right incentives, governance and accountability mechanisms in place. Otherwise, we can expect missed opportunities or even negative impacts on children. Young voices Children have the right to express their views – including on matters that affect them. Throughout this report about the future of childhood, we share the perspectives of children and young people in their own words. Some comment on the megatrends and their impact on children today and in the decades to come. Others share their vision for a sustainable, equitable and peaceful future – and their thoughts on how to achieve it. SOWC 2024 gathered these perspectives from a UNICEF U-Report global survey,5 as well as from the 2023 Youth Foresight Fellows – a group of young foresight practitioners working with UNICEF Innocenti – Global Office of Research and Foresight.6 The world’s children in 2050 Drawing on these three megatrends and many other socioeconomic indicators (see Chapter 2), UNICEF commissioned the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital to analyse scenarios using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) model to explore how the world might look for children in 2050. These scenarios are not predictions, but an exploration of possibilities based on different assumptions about the future. They reflect a certain level of variability in areas like economic growth and demographic trends, among others. What they cannot reflect are the unknowns – such as possible pandemics, economic shocks and technological game changers. In other

These scenarios are not predictions, but an exploration of possibilities based on different assumptions about the future. They reflect a certain level of variability in areas like economic growth and demographic trends, among others. What they cannot reflect are the unknowns – such as possible pandemics, economic shocks and technological game changers. In other words, the world is unpredictable: After all, who in March 2019 could have predicted that, within a year, children around the world would be locked out of school because of a global health crisis? Each possible future reflects a world that is very different from today’s. For example, in a business-as-usual scenario based on current trend lines, children in the 2050s will live in societies with fewer children and more adults. More of the world’s children will live in Africa, more will live in cities and more will go to school. Many are projected to live in communities that are at lower risk of prolonged subnational conflict and that have made some progress towards achieving gender equality. Overwhelmingly, however, the children of 2050 will live in places that are far more exposed to climate risks. The numbers in the business-as-usual scenario are stark: About eight times as many children are projected to live in countries at high risk of exposure to extreme These scenarios are not predictions, but an exploration of possibilities based on different assumptions about the future.4 The State of the World’s Children 2024 heatwaves in the 2050s, compared with the number of children exposed at the start of the century. The consequences for children’s health and well-being and for the stability and resilience of their communities are profound. Other scenarios are even more worrying. They are potential futures where, based on the decisions made today, the share of children completing primary schooling in the 2050s is lower; where barely one in two children completes secondary education; where more children live in poorly resourced settings than do today; and where the risk of exposure to extreme heatwaves is projected to be 13.5 times higher. The next 25 years

is lower; where barely one in two children completes secondary education; where more children live in poorly resourced settings than do today; and where the risk of exposure to extreme heatwaves is projected to be 13.5 times higher. The next 25 years Such visions of the future must give us pause. But they should not fill us with despair. For there are other, much more optimistic, scenarios for how the future could unfold. We don’t just need projections to tell us this, we can take lessons from history. Consider the progress of this past half-century alone: Under-5 mortality has dropped 60 per cent in the past 30 years and malnutrition has decreased by 45 per cent.7 And, despite the setbacks of the pandemic period, rising vaccination coverage has saved countless lives – an estimated 31 million lives through measles immunizations alone.8 But this report sets its eyes on the future. As we near the end of the first quarter of the twenty-first century, we look to the next 25 years, to the year 2050, and ask ourselves: How can we best secure a future for the children of 2050 in which they survive, thrive and meet their full potential? Young voices “Our future hinges on your decisions today. Embrace renewable energy, protect biodiversity, and invest in health care and education. Let’s build a world where prosperity is shared equitably, and where every individual can thrive.” U-Reporter, 20, male, India Setting our course Our guide for building the best possible future for every child must be, first and foremost, the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC). Adopted 35 years ago, the CRC has supported the betterment of countless children’s lives around the world. The CRC remains as relevant as ever today, at a time when the dangers to children threaten “to undermine the integrity of international standards pertaining to children”, in the words of Secretary-General Guterres.9 It is consistently a touchstone for governments, the United Nations, multilateral systems, businesses and civil society as they develop policies, approaches and practices to the challenges of today and tomorrow.

integrity of international standards pertaining to children”, in the words of Secretary-General Guterres.9 It is consistently a touchstone for governments, the United Nations, multilateral systems, businesses and civil society as they develop policies, approaches and practices to the challenges of today and tomorrow. The CRC’s core principles are clear: Non-discrimination underlines the duty to serve the needs of – and to provide opportunities to – every child. The intention to serve the best interests of the child represents a litmus test for decisions taken by legislature, courts of law, businesses and other actors where they relate to children’s well-being. The right to life, survival and development emphasizes the need to support every facet of a child’s growth, including their physical and mental health and their social and cultural situation. And the principle to foreground the views of the child reflects the importance of ensuring children’s voices are heard and taken seriously in matters that affect them.Introduction 5 These principles are reflected in this report’s recommendations for how to meet the challenges and opportunities posed by the megatrends of today and tomorrow (see Chapter 3). These recommendations include:  As more societies move through the demographic transition, investment in health, education and skills will be vital to harness the potential demographic dividend. In an increasingly urban world, we also need to focus on developing cities that are more sustainable, resilient, clean, safe and nurturing for children. In addition, in societies where adults increasingly outnumber children, we must find innovative ways to ensure rights and equity across generations.  The climate and environmental crises demand action on multiple fronts. We need to develop and expand climate-resilient infrastructure, especially for schools, health-care facilities and emergency shelters, and improve the resilience of essential services such as nutrition, social protection, education, and water, sanitation and hygiene. We need to invest in green energy to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and protect children from hazards such as air pollution, toxic metals, chemicals and hazardous waste. And we need to ensure that children’s unique vulnerabilities and needs are reflected in environmental decision-making, including climate financing, policy and planning.

to invest in green energy to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and protect children from hazards such as air pollution, toxic metals, chemicals and hazardous waste. And we need to ensure that children’s unique vulnerabilities and needs are reflected in environmental decision-making, including climate financing, policy and planning.  To meet the challenges and take advantage of the possibilities of frontier technologies, we urgently need to bridge the digital divide and build children’s digital skills, especially in societies where generations of children are being left behind in the digital revolution. Governments and businesses also need to invest in technology designed to benefit children, safeguard them and protect their best interests, while taking into account the needs and views of children themselves. Laws must be adopted or updated to protect children against the risks of emerging technologies. The megatrends with which the world is contending will affect the lives of everyone. But no one will feel their impact more than our youngest generations. They must be empowered to be agents of change as we take on these challenges. That is why the priorities set out above reflect, in part, the thinking of the many young people who have worked with UNICEF Innocenti – Global Office of Research and Foresight to imagine the future and how we can shape it for the better. Their voices and views are reflected throughout this report. Our responsibility Anyone who reads the headlines knows that we are facing a major, collective struggle to solve the problems of today. Some might wonder, then, about the wisdom of trying to take on the challenges of tomorrow. But these are, in fact, also the challenges of today – and they urgently need our attention if we want to improve children’s lives now and in the years ahead. Why should we address these challenges? The best answer comes from 15-year-old Aliaksandr Piatrou, who wasn’t yet born when this century started. As part of a letter-writing competition organized by UNICEF and the Universal Postal Union, he pledged to future generations: “As your predecessor, I understand that I have a huge responsibility for your wonderful future. I promise to do everything possible so that you can live in a happy, cloudless world.”10

this century started. As part of a letter-writing competition organized by UNICEF and the Universal Postal Union, he pledged to future generations: “As your predecessor, I understand that I have a huge responsibility for your wonderful future. I promise to do everything possible so that you can live in a happy, cloudless world.”10 The future is now, and our responsibilities are clear. Now is the time to shape a better future for every child. The future is now, and our responsibilities are clear.6 The State of the World’s Children 2024 Chapter 1 Three megatrends shaping children’s futuresThree megatrends 7 To understand how the world’s children will live in 2050, we examine three forces that will shape their lives in the next quarter-century: demographic shifts, the climate and environmental crises, and frontier technologies. These three interconnected megatrends – long-term, global forces of transformation1 – are already profoundly impacting children’s lives. As other global institutions and businesses have recognized, the influence of these megatrends will only grow.2 Each one will impact children’s daily experiences by 2050 – how they live, learn, interact and develop. The megatrends are:  Demographic transition: In the coming decades, all parts of the world will experience population ageing, but the number of children will grow dramatically in some regions. Such shifts demand urgent policy and resource adjustments to address the needs of children in evolving population structures and environments. Implementing effective education, health and social programmes that are tailored to these emerging demographic realities is essential.  The climate and environmental crises: The triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss, and pervasive pollution and waste have propelled the planet and humanity to a critical tipping point.3 The world is not on track to reach net zero emissions by 2050, which is the goal set by the Paris Agreement to preserve a liveable planet.4 Further delays to action will intensify the impact on children, as they will raise the costs of adaptation and mitigation. Bold measures must be promptly implemented to safeguard current and future generations.5

by 2050, which is the goal set by the Paris Agreement to preserve a liveable planet.4 Further delays to action will intensify the impact on children, as they will raise the costs of adaptation and mitigation. Bold measures must be promptly implemented to safeguard current and future generations.5  Frontier technologies: Many transformative technologies are advancing at an exponential rate.6 To ensure that every child can take advantage of these breakthroughs – from AI to green technologies – the necessary infrastructure and resources must be put in place. To ensure every child is protected from the risks associated with these technologies, the necessary laws and governance structures must also be put in place. Regulations and strategic incentives for technology, pharmaceutical and green energy companies are also needed to maximize benefits for every child, while mitigating potential inequities or harms. These three megatrends will have profound, long-term impacts on economies, societies and the planet – and the world’s children. Their convergence will create ripple effects across society and impact other crucially important trends like inequality, migration and urbanization. For example, demographic shifts and climate change directly influence migration patterns and urban growth, while the interplay of all three megatrends has a knock-on effect on economic and financial conditions and policy decisions that contribute to inequality. By focusing on these key drivers of change, we can better grasp their far-reaching consequences for children, today and tomorrow, and address the complex challenges that will shape the future for generations to come. Young voices “The future isn’t just about shiny new technologies. In many contexts it’s about something far more basic, [like] the need for infrastructure to cope with the realities of global heating. Rising temperatures are already threatening children’s right to education and play.” Ijun Kim, 27, Senior Youth Foresight Fellow, Republic of Korea These three megatrends will have profound, long-term impacts on economies, societies and the planet – and the world’s children.8 The State of the World’s Children 2024 Demographic transition

These three megatrends will have profound, long-term impacts on economies, societies and the planet – and the world’s children.8 The State of the World’s Children 2024 Demographic transition The future of childhood is directly linked to historic demographic shifts underway in the world today. Human beings are living longer, having fewer children and moving frequently within and between countries. These patterns, and the way in which they differ across regions, will fundamentally shape children’s lives in the future, and will hold both opportunities and threats to their well-being. The statistics in this section are based on estimates and projections by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, which consider three factors: mortality, fertility and international migration.7 Changes in the first two factors are central to the demographic transition. How many children? In the 2050s, the number of children under age 18 in the world is predicted to be roughly the same as today: about 2.3 billion. However, depending on future patterns of fertility, mortality and international migration, the eventual number may actually lie between 1.7 billion and 3 billion (see Figure 1.1). Meanwhile, the adult population is projected to grow to around 7.5 billion in the 2050s. Globally, the population of older persons, and the share of older persons, will grow. 8 By 2050, the number of people over the age of 65 will have reached about 1.6 billion – thisDemographic transition 9 is more than double the figure from 2021 (761 million), with the share rising from 1 in 10 people to 1 in 6. 9 The stable projections of the total number of children conceal a regional shift. In the 2000s, the largest child populations were in South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and Caribbean. In the 2050s, however, most of the world’s children will live in Eastern and Southern Africa, West and Central Africa, and South Asia, regions that currently contain most

the largest child populations were in South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and Caribbean. In the 2050s, however, most of the world’s children will live in Eastern and Southern Africa, West and Central Africa, and South Asia, regions that currently contain most of the world’s poorest countries.10 By the 2050s, more than a third of the world’s children will live in four countries: China, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. And just 10 countries will be home to half of the world’s children (see Figure 1.3). India and China will remain the two countries with the most children in the 2050s, with an average of 350 million in India and 141 million in China. Nonetheless, the number of children will have dropped by about 106 million in India and by 203 million in China. Demographic transition The ’demographic transition’ refers to the combined result of longer lifespans and smaller family sizes.11  The early stage of the transition features population growth fuelled by dropping mortality rates and high fertility rates.  In the next phase, there are higher numbers of births than deaths and population growth continues.  Population growth then flattens as birth and death rates come into balance at lower levels.  Subsequently, if fertility drops below the replacement rate (2.1 live births per woman),12 the number of births will be fewer than the number of deaths and the population will shrink.13 Figure 1.1 Patterns of growth and plateaus in child and adult populations from the 2000s to the 2050s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s Adults Children 4.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 5.1 5.8 6.5 7.1 7.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Note: The solid line shows the medium (or baseline) variant; the shading shows the range from low to high variants.

Source: United Nat