OIM - Climate Change and Migration

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PUB2024/089/Rii Acknowledgements This publication was developed by a team of researchers under the auspices of the Migration Research Unit (MRU), Faculty of Economics and Political Science (Feps), Cairo University, with the support of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). We would like to express our gratitude to the Faculty of Economics and Political Science for encouraging the team under the leadership of Prof. Adla Ragab, Professor of Economics, FEPS, in steering the discussions on projects related to migration and climate change. We extend our appreciation to Mr Carlos Oliver Cruz , IOM Egypt Chief of Mission and Mr Mohamed Hashem, the National Programme Support Officer at IOM Egypt, for their valuable insights and support in approving and contributing to this research. Special thanks to the research team for their contributions: • Prof. Adla Ragab, Professor of Economics, FEPS, Cairo University – Team Leader • Prof. Ola El-Khawaga, Professor of Economics, FEPS, Cairo University – General Supervisor • Prof. Laila El-Khawaga, Professor of Economics, FEPS, Cairo University – Project Reviewer • Ayman Zohry, PhD, Population and Migration Expert – Project Reviewer

• Maha El-Shalkamy, PhD, Environmental Economics Expert
• Prof. Dalia Ibrahim, Professor of Economics, FEPS, Cairo University • Iman Al-Shaer, PhD, Lecturer of Economics, FEPS, Cairo University • Mr Ahmed Hamdon, Assistant Lecturer of Political Science, FEPS, Cairo University

• Prof. Dalia Ibrahim, Professor of Economics, FEPS, Cairo University • Iman Al-Shaer, PhD, Lecturer of Economics, FEPS, Cairo University • Mr Ahmed Hamdon, Assistant Lecturer of Political Science, FEPS, Cairo University • Ms Mona Al-Sayed, Assistant Lecturer of Economics, FEPS, Cairo University • Ms Manar El-Sehmawy, Assistant Researcher, MRU, FEPS, Cairo University • Eng. Hanan Elgenidy, Assistant Coordinator of MRU, FEPS, Cairo University • Mr Abdul Rahman Saleh, Administrator, CEFRS, FEPS, Cairo University Additionally, we would like to acknowledge the valuable academic contributions and insights provided by Prof. Peter Scholten, Professor Governance of Migration and Diversity at Erasmus University Rotterdam whose research on migration and climate change has greatly influenced this study.

Lastly, we appreciate the dedication of all individuals and institutions involved in highlighting the significance of climate change and its impact on migration patterns.iii Abbreviations and acronyms ...................................................................................................................................................... v

1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1

2. Conceptual framework ....................................................................................................................................................... 1 2.1 Meaning of migration ........................................................................................................................................................ 2 2.2 Types of migration ............................................................................................................................................................. 2 2.2.1 Internal/international migration ......................................................................................................................... 2 2.2.2 Seasonal(temporary)/permanent or semi-permanent migration ........................................................... 2 2.2.3 Forced/Voluntary ........................................................................................................................................................ 2 2.2.4 Long term/Short term ............................................................................................................................................... 2 2.2.5 Circular ............................................................................................................................................................................ 3 2.2.6 Environmental migration......................................................................................................................................... 3 2.2.7 Climate migration ....................................................................................................................................................... 3

3. Theoretical background ..................................................................................................................................................... 3 3.1 Neoclassical migration theory ...................................................................................................................................... 4 3.2 Push-pull theory .................................................................................................................................................................. 4 3.3 Structural theory of sustained migration ................................................................................................................. 4 3.4 The new economics of labour migration .................................................................................................................. 4

3.1 Neoclassical migration theory ...................................................................................................................................... 4 3.2 Push-pull theory .................................................................................................................................................................. 4 3.3 Structural theory of sustained migration ................................................................................................................. 4 3.4 The new economics of labour migration .................................................................................................................. 4 3.5 The sustainable livelihood perspective .................................................................................................................... 5 3.6 Network theory ................................................................................................................................................................... 5 3.7 Aspirations and capabilities theory ............................................................................................................................ 5 3.8 Theories of forced migration and involuntary immobility............................................................................... 6 3.9 Environmental migration frameworks ..................................................................................................................... 6

4. Climate drivers for migration .......................................................................................................................................... 7

5. Implications of climate change ........................................................................................................................................ 8

6. Climate migration from international perspectives ............................................................................................ 10 6.1 Country case studies........................................................................................................................................................ 10 6.1.1 Bangladesh ................................................................................................................................................................... 11 6.1.2 Mexico ............................................................................................................................................................................ 12 6.1.3 Morocco ......................................................................................................................................................................... 14 6.2 COPs tackling climate migration ................................................................................................................................ 16 6.3 Sustainable development goals (SDGs) and climate migration.................................................................... 17

7. Climate migration in Egypt ............................................................................................................................................. 18 7.1 Climate change effects .................................................................................................................................................... 19 7.1.1 Increased mean temperature ............................................................................................................................... 19 7.1.2 Sea level rise ................................................................................................................................................................ 19 7.1.3 Water scarcity............................................................................................................................................................. 20 7.1.4 Most vulnerable areas ............................................................................................................................................. 21 7.2 Impact on climate migration........................................................................................................................................ 21iv 7.3 Impact on health outcomes .......................................................................................................................................... 22 7.4 Impact on women ............................................................................................................................................................. 23

8. Conclusion and policy recommendations................................................................................................................. 25

Recommendations on the international level.............................................................................................................. 26 Recommendations on the national level ........................................................................................................................ 26 References ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 29v

AWG-LCA: Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action

CCDR: World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report

Recommendations on the international level.............................................................................................................. 26 Recommendations on the national level ........................................................................................................................ 26 References ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 29v

AWG-LCA: Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action CCDR: World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report COP: Conference of the Parties

EMN: European Migration Network

FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization

IDMC: Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre

IDP: Internally Displaced Person

IFC: International Finance Corporation

ILO: International Labour Organization

IOM: International Organization for Migration

IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NELM: New Economics of Labour Migration OHCHR: Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights RCCC: Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre SAIL: Sustainable Agriculture Investments and Livelihoods project

SDG: Sustainable Development Goal

UNECE: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

WHO: World Health Organization n1

There are numerous and complex connections between migration, the environment and climate change, and these connections are frequently quite context specific. People's decisions to migrate, leave or remain in unfavorable circumstances are influenced by a variety of personal, social and structural elements, such as familial relationships, networks of friends and demographic and socioeconomic circumstances. In the past few decades, the international community has been paying more concern for climate change and its relation to human mobility. However, environmental deterioration and the effects of climate change are anticipated to put more pressure on people to leave their homes in many parts of the world as temperatures worldwide on average rise and other environmental concerns worsen. For instance, when catastrophic weather events increase in frequency and intensity, more people are likely to evacuate in search of immediate protection; others may depart temporarily, or permanently as more gradual environmental changes lead to insecurity in food, water, or livelihood. Furthermore, the ability of affected individuals and groups to migrate and improve their circumstances is being undermined by climate and environmental degradation. Many people for whom movement is currently an option will likely be impacted by the erosion of already

others may depart temporarily, or permanently as more gradual environmental changes lead to insecurity in food, water, or livelihood. Furthermore, the ability of affected individuals and groups to migrate and improve their circumstances is being undermined by climate and environmental degradation. Many people for whom movement is currently an option will likely be impacted by the erosion of already precarious livelihoods, such as dropping production of crops and the depletion of the capital required for migration, especially in less developed nations, which will raise the number of “trapped” populations. Furthermore, most people who migrate do so within their own nation, and the destinations they choose may also be facing other difficulties, including the effects of climate change. For instance, in many low and middle-income nations urbanization is accelerating due to population increase and rural–urban mobility. Cities already overworked public services and infrastructure may be strained as a result. Environmental factors, social, economic, cultural, political and demographic processes all have an impact on human migration and are considered main drivers for it. Climate change can have a direct impact on migration by raising the frequency and intensity of environmental stressors such natural disasters, as well as an indirect impact through modifications in these main drivers. Compared to internal climate migration, international climate migration is much less common; the majority of those impacted by climate change would like to remain in or close to their homeland. High mobility obstacles discourage international migration. These include the expense of transportation; insufficient knowledge of available mobility choices; difficulties in acquiring visas and concerns with language. This study examines the role of climate change as a driver of migration, where climate can be seen as the envelope in which all activities take place. It aims to make significant progress in comprehending the relationship between migration and climate change. To achieve this aim, the study will begin with summarizing some concepts and theories related to the link between migration and climate change and then focuses on the climate drivers for migration. Then, climate migration from international perspectives will be tackled by analysing throughout three case studies: Mexico, Bangladesh and Morocco in which climate migration had persisted internally or externally, discussing climate migration within the COPs and linking

focuses on the climate drivers for migration. Then, climate migration from international perspectives will be tackled by analysing throughout three case studies: Mexico, Bangladesh and Morocco in which climate migration had persisted internally or externally, discussing climate migration within the COPs and linking SDGs with climate migration. Moreover, the study presents the status of climate migration in case of Egypt and which area and group of population are vulnerable to the effect of climate change. Finally, a road map for the future of climate migration and the role of different stakeholders both in the short and long term and on the international and national levels.

Migration is the foundation of human history and the evolution of human society. One of the most important factors in societal transformations has been the movement of individuals between administrative and political jurisdictions within a nation or across nations. The history of migration is as old as humanity. People have moved throughout history in pursuit of better lives, to escape violence or danger, or just to take advantage of new chances (IOM, 2024a).2 Human environment has constantly been changing, due to a combination of natural or man-made forces. Mobility and/or Migration has thus always been a process through which human societies have adjusted to changes in their physical environment (Mayer, 2016). Some changes in the human environment directly threaten survival conditions, or affect living conditions and livelihood, particularly in the case of resourcedependent economic activities such as agriculture and fishing. Other environmental changes may render new destinations more appealing for people to migrate to (ibid.). Several concepts will be discussed in this section as follows: 2.1 Meaning of migration “To move or settle/shift” is the Latin word “migrare,” which is where the word “migration” comes from. There is no agreed-upon definition of migration. National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) treated the individual as a migrant if the person place of enumeration was different from his/her last usual place of residence (NSSO, 1998). International Organization for Migration (IOM) defined migrant as “a person who moves away from his or her place of usual residence, whether within a country or across an international

individual as a migrant if the person place of enumeration was different from his/her last usual place of residence (NSSO, 1998). International Organization for Migration (IOM) defined migrant as “a person who moves away from his or her place of usual residence, whether within a country or across an international border, temporarily or permanently, and for a variety of reasons” (IOM, 2019). 2.2 Types of migration There are various types of migration. These categories are typically classified as internal/external, long-term/short-term, seasonal or temporary/permanent, cyclical or circulatory, forced or impelled. 2.2.1 Internal/international migration The classification of migration refers to the nature of location. Internal migration is the movement of people within the nation in which they were born, reside, or call home. In this context, “internal” refers to migration inside one's own nation. International migration is the movement of people from one nation to another, and travelling across national borders (Pencea and Curteanu, 2020) 2.2.2 Seasonal(temporary)/permanent or semi-permanent migration This type of classification refers to the duration of migration. Moving from one place to another without intending to return to one's birthplace is referred to as permanent migration. A temporary migration is one that is carried out for a brief period of time (Bell and Ward, 2000; Chen et al., 2019). 2.2.3 Forced/Voluntary Forced migration is when people migrate without any option under threat of danger, force or violence. On the contrary, voluntary migrants have the freedom to choose where to migrate or live (Bakewell, 2021). 2.2.4 Long term/Short term A long-term migrant is “a person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence”. From the perspective of the country of departure the person will be an emigrant

A long-term migrant is “a person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence”. From the perspective of the country of departure the person will be an emigrant and from that of the country of arrival the person will be an immigrant” (United Nations Statistics Division, 1998). While people who relocate to a country other than their home country for a minimum of three months but less than a year are considered short-term migrants. Short-term migration does not include movements for leisure, vacation, visiting friends or family, business, medical care, or religious pilgrimage. For the duration of a short-term migrant's stay, the country of destination is the one in which they typically dwell (UNECE, 2011).3 2.2.5 Circular The European Migration Network (EMN) defines circular migration as “a repetition of legal migrations by the same person between two or more countries.” Circular migration, according to EMN, is recurrent backand-forth travel between the nations of origin and destination, whereas temporary migration is restricted to a single back-and-forth movement with a brief stay in the country of destination. One form of transitory migration that involves repeating a brief stay in a destination nation is known as “circular migration” (European Commission: Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs and European Migration Network, 2011). 2.2.6 Environmental migration Environmental migration is defined by IOM as “the movement of persons or groups of persons [environmental migrants] who, predominantly for reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are forced to leave their places of habitual residence, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move within or outside their country of origin or habitual residence” (IOM, 2021). 2.2.7 Climate migration Climate migration is a subcategory of environmental migration where the change in the environment is due

residence, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move within or outside their country of origin or habitual residence” (IOM, 2021). 2.2.7 Climate migration Climate migration is a subcategory of environmental migration where the change in the environment is due to climate change. Climate migration is defined as “the movement of a person or groups of persons who, predominantly for reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment due to climate change, are obliged to leave their habitual place of residence, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, within a State or across an international border” (Migration Data Portal, 2024). Climate migration involves the movement of people either forced by environmental crises or gradually due to prolonged changes in their environment. This movement can be internal within the borders of migrants’ home countries or transnational. It could be temporary or permanent. The term “climate migrant” refers to persons who are compelled by climate events (e.g. flood, drought, heat and sea-level rise) to leave their home and move either within their countries (internal migration) or abroad (transnational or cross-border migration) (IOM, 2007). Some studies use the term environmental refugees, but this term is not so accurate because Geneva convention clearly defines “refugees” as people who are outside the country of their nationality owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion. So, the displacement due to climate change does not have a legal basis in international refugee law. For the above reasons, the term “environmental migrant” is more precise because most of the people who moves due to climate change disasters prefers to stay in their own country of origin and thus is difficult to imagine that people whose livelihoods are undermining by climate change until manage to embark a journey to Europe and North America. (IOM, 2024a; Migration Data Portal, 2024).

Although the environment as a driving force behind migration is not new to the literature, it is currently

that people whose livelihoods are undermining by climate change until manage to embark a journey to Europe and North America. (IOM, 2024a; Migration Data Portal, 2024).

Although the environment as a driving force behind migration is not new to the literature, it is currently receiving more attention because of climate change and the frequency of extremely damaging disasters. “Environmental drivers such as climate and soil fertility feature prominently in the first attempts by geographers to systematize knowledge about migration,” according to Piguet (201 8), who cites important figures in the development of early migration theories like the theories mentioned by Ratzel (1882), Ravenstein (1889) and Huntington (1907).4 Although these theories have been around since the late 19th and early 20th centuries, Piguet points out that “The environment disappeared” from the study of migration for most of the remaining 20th century. They only came back in the middle of the 1980s when environmental scientists were working on the threats posed by deteriorating environments and climate change and summarization of these theories are discussed in this section. Following (de Sherbinin et al., 2022), we do not make clear distinctions betw een concepts like theory and theoretical frameworks. Some “Theories” have been proposed to be little more than stylized facts or empirical generalizations and frameworks are considered to be a graphical depiction of theory to show causal relationships. 3.1 Neoclassical migration theory The recent spike in study on the relationship between migration and the environment, which is related to growing global concern about climate change, is not the first time environmental considerations have been mentioned in theories that attempt to explain migration. In fact, early migration theorists around the end of the 19th century recognized the environment. Economic factors, however, were typically at the forefront during the twentieth century. Neoclassical theory (Lewis, 1954; Harris and Todaro, 1970; Borjas, 1989) placed emphasis on individual assessments of income differences between origin and destination areas, which led to migration. According

during the twentieth century. Neoclassical theory (Lewis, 1954; Harris and Todaro, 1970; Borjas, 1989) placed emphasis on individual assessments of income differences between origin and destination areas, which led to migration. According to this theory, migration is an individual decision to maximize profits through the process of weighing costs and benefits. Environmental factors can be said to affect wages indirectly through impacts on rural livelihoods and urban wages rate. If we expand the neoclassical theory of migration, it can incorporate any form of utility maximization. 3.2 Push-pull theory Push-pull theory is often grouped with neoclassical migration theory. The theory frames migration in terms of negative (push) factors in the pl