OIM - Climate Chains Mapping the Relationship between Climate, Trafficking in Persons and Building Resilience

CLIMATE CHAINS Mapping the Relationship between Climate, Trafficking in Persons and Building ResilienceThe opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the report do not imply expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning its frontiers or boundaries. IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society. As an intergovernmental organization, IOM acts with its partners in the international community to: assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration; advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants. _____________________________ This material has been funded by UK International Development from the Government of the United Kingdom through the Modern Slavery Innovation Fund; however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the official policies of the Government of the United Kingdom.

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PUB2025/013/ELCLIMATE CHAINS Mapping the Relationship between Climate, Trafficking in Persons and Building ResilienceAcknowledgementsii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was written by Ruta Nimkar (Research T eam Leader) with input from Abis Getachew (Ethiopia National Researcher), Anna Patricia Saberon (Philippines National Research), Maryam Bidmeshgipour, Matthew Porges, Danilo Angulo-Molina and Michael Murphy, the research team from Meraki Labs. The authors would like to express their sincere gratitude to IOM for commissioning this research as part of the Climate Resilience Against Trafficking and Exploitation (CREATE) project, with special thanks to Jenniffer Dew and Patrick Burland of IOM. We are deeply grateful to the communities in Ethiopia and the Philippines who participated in this study, sharing their experiences and insights. Special thanks go to the local government officials, community leaders and experts who provided valuable input throughout the research process. We also acknowledge the hard work and dedication of our research teams, including data collectors, national researchers and subject matter experts, whose contributions were invaluable in developing this comprehensive report. In particular, we extend our appreciation to the facilitators who conducted key informant interviews and focus group discussions during the qualitative data collection process in the Philippines: Katrina Agagna, Benedict Santiago, Shaina Pachica, Juliana Frolles, Janel Sales, Ryza Villanueva, Sophia Leigh Cambare and Nino Ryan Embestro. Additionally, we recognize the efforts of the enumerators who were responsible for the quantitative data collection: Jayzer Perez, Alex Guerrero, Lara

Santiago, Shaina Pachica, Juliana Frolles, Janel Sales, Ryza Villanueva, Sophia Leigh Cambare and Nino Ryan Embestro. Additionally, we recognize the efforts of the enumerators who were responsible for the quantitative data collection: Jayzer Perez, Alex Guerrero, Lara Estelle Filgueras and T ony Angeles T oledo. Finally, we extend our appreciation to all the individuals and organizations who contributed to the literature and previous studies on climate change, migration and human trafficking, which formed the foundation for this research.Climate Chains: Mapping the Relationship between Climate, Trafficking in Persons and Building Resilience iii CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..................................................... ii LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES ............................................... iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS .................................... v GLOSSARY ................................................................. vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................... xi

1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................... 1

2. RESEARCH SCOPE ...................................................... 3

3. APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY ...................................... 5 3.1. Approach .......................................................... 5 3.2. Data collection ...................................................... 7 3.3. Analysis ............................................................ 9 3.4. Limitations ......................................................... 9

4. THE CAUSAL CHAIN LINKING CLIMATE AND TRAFFICKING ............. 13 4.1. The causal chain .................................................... 14 4.2. The role of contextual factors ........................................ 15

5. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CAUSAL CHAIN ............................. 19 5.1. Strengths of links in the chain ......................................... 19 5.2. Complexity and evolution of the chain ................................. 22

6. INDIVIDUAL, HOUSEHOLD AND COMMUNITY FACTORS AFFECTING THE CHAIN ............................................... 27 6.1. Individual and household factors ....................................... 27 6.2. Community factors ................................................. 32

7. STRUCTURAL, ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FACTORS AFFECTING THE CHAIN ............................................... 35 7.1. Structural factors ................................................... 35

6.1. Individual and household factors ....................................... 27 6.2. Community factors ................................................. 32

7. STRUCTURAL, ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FACTORS AFFECTING THE CHAIN ............................................... 35 7.1. Structural factors ................................................... 35 7.2. Economic factors ................................................... 36 7.3. Political factors ..................................................... 38

8. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................. 41 8.1. Conclusions ....................................................... 41 8.2. Recommendations .................................................. 42

REFERENCES .............................................................. 47LIST OF TABLES, TEXT BOXES AND FIGURESiv

LIST OF TABLES, TEXT BOXES AND FIGURES Table 1. Research questions ................................................ 3 Table 2. Quantitative sample ............................................... 7 Table 3. Qualitative sample ................................................. 8 T ext box 1. Adaptability in the research process: Identification of new factors during the research process ........................................ 11 T ext box 2. A story of climate-related exploitation ............................... 17 T ext box 3. The relative nature of exploitation .................................. 25 T ext box 4. A story of household coping strategies – and the consequences .......... 33 Figure 1. Climate and trafficking causal chain .................................. 13 Figure 2. Strengths of links in the chain ...................................... 19Climate Chains: Mapping the Relationship between Climate, Trafficking in Persons and Building Resilience v

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND

ACRONYMS

4Ps Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Programme (Philippines) ATA Agricultural Transformation Agency (Ethiopia) COVID-19 Coronavirus disease CREATE Climate Resilience Against Trafficking and Exploitation FGD focus group discussion

GBV gender-based violence IDI in-depth interview ILO International Labour Organization IOM International Organization for Migration IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change KII key informant interview OFW overseas Filipino worker OWWA Overseas Workers Welfare Administration (Philippines) UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and CrimeClimate Chains: Mapping the Relationship between Climate, Trafficking in Persons and Building Resilience vii GLOSSARY Climate change: This is a “change in the state of the climate that can be identified (for example, using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcing such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use” (IPCC, 2014).

Climate migration: This refers to the “movement of a person or groups of persons who, predominantly for reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment due to climate change, are obliged to leave their habitual place of residence, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, within a State or across an international border” (IOM, 2019). The pathways for climate to affect migration can be summarized as follows (Selby

and Daoust, 2021): (a) Through short-term weather shock events (both rapid-onset shocks such as floods and hurricanes, and slow-onset shocks such as droughts) and temperature and precipitation fluctuations linked and partially attributable to climate change. (b) Through long-term global and local climatic and/or environmental changes resulting from human greenhouse gas emissions (especially sea-level rise, increased average temperatures, changes to precipitation and river flow patterns). (c) Through local environmental and associated economic changes that may act as pull factors for in-migration (such as to regions where there may be increased agricultural productivity and associated economic opportunities as a result of climate change).

temperatures, changes to precipitation and river flow patterns). (c) Through local environmental and associated economic changes that may act as pull factors for in-migration (such as to regions where there may be increased agricultural productivity and associated economic opportunities as a result of climate change). (d) Through adaptation and mitigation policies, projects and investments taken in response, or partly in response, to climate change (such as dam-building, land acquisitions and stranded assets). (e) Through perceptions and narratives of the current and likely future impacts of anthropogenic climate change.

Coping mechanisms: These are the “actions performed by individuals and households to solve any issue that they perceive as problematic” (Nabulsi et al., 2020). Alternatively, this is also defined as the “use of available skills, resources and opportunities to address, manage and overcome adverse conditions, with the aim of achieving basic functioning of people, institutions, organizations and systems in the short to medium term” (IPCC, 2014). Coping mechanisms can be either positive or negative: positive coping mechanisms are generally classed under resilience. Some examples of negative coping mechanisms include sale of household assets and pushing children into child labour and early marriage for girls for the purposes of obtaining dowry.

Exploitation: This refers to the “act of taking advantage of something or someone, in particular the act of taking unjust advantage of another for one’s own benefit” (IOM, 2019).

According to the Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons Especially Women and Children, supplementing the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, “exploitation includes, at a minimum, the exploitation of the prostitutionGlossaryviii of others or other forms of sexual exploitation, forced labour or services, slavery or practices similar to slavery, servitude or the removal of organs” (United Nations, 2000a). In practice, exploitation exists on a continuum, ranging from substandard working conditions to extreme forms, such as human trafficking and forced labour. At the lower end, it may involve insufficient wages or unsafe environments, while at the extreme, individuals are

In practice, exploitation exists on a continuum, ranging from substandard working conditions to extreme forms, such as human trafficking and forced labour. At the lower end, it may involve insufficient wages or unsafe environments, while at the extreme, individuals are subjected to severe coercion, slavery-like practices or forced servitude. Indicators of exploitation that are relevant to this research are listed as follows; please note that these reflect only a subset of possible exploitative behaviour (UNODC, 2015).1 (a) Sexual exploitation • Any actual or attempted abuse of a position of vulnerability, differential power or trust, for sexual purposes, including, but not limited to, profiting monetarily, socially or politically from the sexual exploitation of another (IOM, 2019). (b) Forced labour • T o force an individual to work without pay through deprivation of passports, coercion into working long hours, use of threats or use of incentives that are not delivered. (c) Slavery • The status or condition of a person over whom any or all the powers attaching to the right of ownership are exercised (ibid.). • The exploitation of a person economically on the basis of an actual relationship of force or dependence, accompanied by a serious and long-term deprivation of basic civil rights. (d) Servitude • State of a person deprived of liberty and subservient to another forced to live on the other’s property and with an impossibility of changing his status (ibid.). The situation of any person who surrenders to conditions of labour or who is committed to working or delivering services or both and which such person cannot escape from or change.

Disaster displacement: This refers to “situations where people are forced to leave their homes or places of habitual residence as a result of a disaster or in order to avoid the impact of an immediate and foreseeable natural hazard. Such displacement results from the fact that affected persons are: (i) exposed to (ii) a natural hazard in a situation where (iii) they are too vulnerable and lack the resilience to withstand the impacts of that hazard” (IOM, n.d.a).

of an immediate and foreseeable natural hazard. Such displacement results from the fact that affected persons are: (i) exposed to (ii) a natural hazard in a situation where (iii) they are too vulnerable and lack the resilience to withstand the impacts of that hazard” (IOM, n.d.a).

Irregular migration: This is the “movement of persons to a new place of residence or transit that takes place outside the regulatory norms of the sending, transit and receiving countries” (IOM, 2019).

Livelihood: This refers to the “means and activities through which individuals sustain their life, including employment, skill development and income generation” (Sustainable Development Goals Resource Centre, n.d.). Strongly linked to livelihood, “assets include the human, social, natural, physical and financial capital of households and individuals. Education and skills, social networks, land ownership, income and savings are examples of these different kinds of assets” (Fratzke and Salant, 2018). 1 While this research is funded by the Modern Slavery Innovation Fund, and the term modern slavery is widely used, the authors have decided against using this terminology in the text due to the already complex (and often misunderstood) definitions of the terms provided, as well as its lack of definition in international law.Climate Chains: Mapping the Relationship between Climate, Trafficking in Persons and Building Resilience ix Migration: This refers to the “movement of persons away from their place of usual residence, either across an international border or within a State” (IOM, 2019). Migration can be understood within the context of climate as “a complex, wide-ranging phenomenon, which can be either internal or cross-border; which is sometimes temporary or circular, and sometimes permanent; and which includes both voluntary migration and forced displacement and evacuation” (Selby and Daoust, 2021).

Resilience: In the context of disaster risk reduction, resilience is the “ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to, transform and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through

Resilience: In the context of disaster risk reduction, resilience is the “ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to, transform and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions through risk management” (IOM, 2019). Resilience also refers to the “capacity of social, economic and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain their essential function, identity and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation” (IPCC, 2014).

Resilience is a broad umbrella under which positive coping mechanisms can be considered to sit. Three types of resilience mechanisms are generally identified as follows (Avis, 2020): (a) Absorptive capacity: Absorptive capacity is the capacity to take intentional protective action and cope with known shocks and stress. It is needed as shocks and stress will continue to happen, for example due to extreme weather events caused by climate change, protracted conflict and disasters (Jeans et al., 2017). (b) Adaptive capacity: Adaptive capacities support a household or community to withstand shocks and positively adapt to social, economic and environmental change. They tend to be more pre-emptive than absorptive capacities and operate on a longer timescale (Avis, 2020). (c) Transformative capacity: Transformative capacities tend to be part of longer-term responses that address vulnerabilities at community, environment or systems level. As a result of these capacities, a cycle of vulnerability can be disrupted, the effects of shocks are avoided and resilience is ensured. With a longer-term focus, transformative capacities relate more to a sustainable development perspective (ibid.).

Slow-onset climate events: This is defined in eight types by UNFCCC as the risks and impacts associated with increasing temperatures, desertification, loss of biodiversity, land and forest degradation, glacial retreat and related impacts, ocean acidification, sea-level rise and salinization (UNFCCC, 2012).

Slow-onset climate events: This is defined in eight types by UNFCCC as the risks and impacts associated with increasing temperatures, desertification, loss of biodiversity, land and forest degradation, glacial retreat and related impacts, ocean acidification, sea-level rise and salinization (UNFCCC, 2012).

Smuggling: This term refers to “the procurement, in order to obtain, directly or indirectly, a financial or other material benefit, of the illegal entry of a person into a State Party of which the person is not a national or a permanent resident” (IOM, 2019). Key aspects of the definition are as follows: (a) voluntariness; (b) the fact that smuggling is undertaken for financial rather than exploitation purposes; and (c) the cross-border nature of smuggling

(trafficking can take place within a country).

Sudden-onset climate events: “can cause unexpected loss of land and lives, and destruction of means of livelihoods, instantly plunging those without safety nets into poverty. In the immediate aftermath of a disaster, displacement is likely to occur, giving space for traffickers to operate and exploit affected people, their desire for safety and search for means of income to help restore their lives” (IOM, 2017).Glossaryx Trafficking: This refers to the “recruitment, transportation, transfer, harbouring or receipt of persons, by means of the threat or use of force or other forms of coercion, of abduction, of fraud, of deception, of the abuse of power or of a position of vulnerability or of the giving or receiving of payments or benefits to achieve the consent of a person having control over another person, for the purpose of exploitation. Exploitation shall include, at a minimum, the exploitation of the prostitution of others or other forms of sexual exploitation, forced labour or services, slavery or practices similar to slavery, servitude or the removal of organs”

(United Nations, 2000a).

Vulnerability: “Within a migration context, vulnerability is the limited capacity to avoid, resist, cope with or recover from harm. This limited capacity is the result of the unique interaction

labour or services, slavery or practices similar to slavery, servitude or the removal of organs” (United Nations, 2000a).

Vulnerability: “Within a migration context, vulnerability is the limited capacity to avoid, resist, cope with or recover from harm. This limited capacity is the result of the unique interaction of individual, household, community and structural characteristics and conditions” (IOM, 2019). Defined as “the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected”, vulnerability “encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt” (IPCC, 2014). With regards to climate change discourse, two distinct conceptualizations of vulnerability have emerged: outcome vulnerability and contextual vulnerability (Molinari, 2017).

(a) Outcome vulnerability, which is mediated by adaptation capacities, is informed by a scientific framework that sees vulnerability as a linear process and direct product of climate change effects on exposed biophysical or social entities. (b) Contextual vulnerability is influenced by a human security framework that accounts for the ways in which multiscale social, political and economic conditions and processes and uneven relations of power mediate the opportunities, resources and capacities necessary to cope with and adapt to climate pressures.Climate Chains: Mapping the Relationship between Climate, Trafficking in Persons and Building Resilience xi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Climate change is increasingly recognized as a complex global challenge with far-reaching implications for human societies. Its effects extend beyond environmental impacts, affecting various aspects of human society, including economic systems, social structures and human rights. There is evidence suggesting a direct link between climate events and incidents of human trafficking, yet the precise mechanisms driving this relationship are not fully understood. This report explores the intricate connections between climate change, livelihood, vulnerability and the risks of trafficking and exploitation, building the evidence base so that it is possible to enhance practices around prevention and response. Commissioned by IOM as part of the Climate Resilience Against Trafficking and Exploitation (CREATE) project, this research addresses the overarching question: How and to what extent do the impacts of

it is possible to enhance practices around prevention and response. Commissioned by IOM as part of the Climate Resilience Against Trafficking and Exploitation (CREATE) project, this research addresses the overarching question: How and to what extent do the impacts of climate change on livelihoods influence risks of trafficking and exploitation? In terms of methodology and approach, this research focuses on two locations: Ethiopia and the Philippines. These locations were selected because they represent an instructive contrast. While both countries are affected by sudden-onset and slow-onset climate change – the Philippines is greatly affected by frequently experienced sudden-onset events such as typhoons, whereas Ethiopia is greatly affected by slow-onset events – the situation with regards to drought has deteriorated dramatically. Research was undertaken using an exploratory, mixed-methods approach. A desk review was complemented by quantitative and qualitative data collection. There were 755 households surveyed (195 in Ethiopia and 560 in the Philippines), and sample sizes were selected to ensure representative results at the community level. A range of qualitative tools (FGDs, KIIs and IDIs) were used, with 72 exercises conducted (23 in Ethiopia and 49 in the Philippines). This research puts forward a conceptual model that links climate events and trafficking through a series of intertwined steps. This causal chain is complex and can be affected by a range of contextual factors at the individual, household, community and structural levels. The research study’s understanding of the relationship between climate and trafficking, and the ways in which contextual factors can influence this relationship, is summarized in Figure 1. The causal chain can be described as follows: • The effects of climate events on livelihood and vulnerability are the most relevant for migration intentions and trafficking outcomes, but these are not the only relevant pathways. The most significant link between climate and trafficking appears to occur through livelihood and vulnerability, but links also take place through health, water systems and infrastructure. Some of these pathways, notably the pathways through health and infrastructure, were validated through this research. • Climate events affect livelihood in two ways: (a) reduction of household income/

through livelihood and vulnerability, but links also take place through health, water systems and infrastructure. Some of these pathways, notably the pathways through health and infrastructure, were validated through this research. • Climate events affect livelihood in two ways: (a) reduction of household income/ assets; and (b) de-diversification of livelihood options . Evidence indicates that one of the key risks associated with climate events involves shocks to specific livelihood assets. While diversification of livelihood is considered a key mitigation measure, household opportunities to diversify are often negatively affected by climate events. This research provided strong direct evidence to support this link.Executive summaryxii • Climate increases vulnerability, with a disproportionate effect on already vulnerable communities and households . Existing research shows that climate events have stronger impacts in areas characterized by systemic vulnerability. Climate can exacerbate vulnerability both through immediate displacement and long-term displacement that takes place in response to loss of assets. This research provided strong direct evidence to support this link. • Livelihood and vulnerability are strongly interlinked and can generate a negative spiral. Reduction of livelihood income, assets and options can increase vulnerability, and conversely increasing vulnerability can have negative effects on livelihood. This research provided strong direct evidence, from both quantitative and qualitative data, to support this link. • Decreasing livelihood and/or increasing vulnerability can increase migration intentions, both internally and internationally, but can prevent migration actions . There is literature indicating that the desire to increase economic well-being is a factor behind migration intentions. However, in situations where resources are constrained, individuals may not act on migration intentions for financial reasons. This research confirmed that decreasing livelihood and increasing vulnerability increased migration intentions but could not confirm the subsequent effect on migration actions. • Increased migration intentions, in the context of lower resources and higher vulnerability, can increase risk of trafficking. There is a clear relationship between lack of livelihood options and use of risky migration routes, as well as working in sectors that are out of sight. People can be vulnerable to misinformation and disinformation due to lack of literacy or lack of awareness or can be pushed to migrate due to the

vulnerability, can increase risk of trafficking. There is a clear relationship between lack of livelihood options and use of risky migration routes, as well as working in sectors that are out of sight. People can be vulnerable to misinformation and disinformation due to lack of literacy or lack of awareness or can be pushed to migrate due to the emergency nature of their situations. This research found qualitative evidence that suggests that increased migration intentions in